Francisca Jorge #232Portugal00 – 2Mia Ristic #219Serbia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Ristic's dominant recent form and superior return/break profile outweigh Jorge's hard-court volume edge.

• Ristic last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), games won 59.9%
• Jorge last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), games won 49.5%
• Ristic return points won 49.7% vs Jorge 42.9% in last 15
• Ristic break points converted 51.4% vs Jorge 47.8% in last 15

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ristic's superior game-winning percentage and break conversion support a -2.5 game handicap.

• Ristic last 15 games won 59.9% vs Jorge 49.5%
• Ristic average games won per match 13.1 vs Jorge 9.3
• Ristic break points converted 51.4% vs Jorge 47.8%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Ristic's stronger recent set-level dominance and point-winning edge make her the likely first-set winner.

• Ristic first set win conversion career 85%, same as Jorge
• Ristic last 15 sets won 77.8% vs Jorge 53.1%
• Ristic last 15 total points won 54.4% vs Jorge 49.2%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average under 2 aces per match, making under 4.5 total aces likely.

• Jorge last 15 aces per match 1.6, Ristic 1.6
• Combined average aces per match 3.2 in last 15
• Both players have low ace counts on hard courts recently

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ristic's very low double fault rate and Jorge's moderate rate keep the combined total under 3.5.

• Jorge last 15 double faults per match 2.5
• Ristic last 15 double faults per match 0.7
• Combined average double faults per match 3.2 in last 15

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, but the combined probability of no tiebreak is slightly above 50%.

• Jorge tiebreak win percentage career 53%, Ristic 60%
• Jorge last 15 matches had 2 tiebreaks in 15 matches
• Ristic last 15 matches had 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches