Paul Jubb #384United Kingdom00 – 2Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #292Mexico2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Pacheco's superior recent hard-court form and stronger serve/return structural metrics give him the edge in this Bo3 match.

• Last 15 overall record: Pacheco 9-6 (60%) vs Jubb 6-9 (40%)
• Last 15 hard-court record: Pacheco 7-4 (63.6%) vs Jubb 2-5 (28.6%)
• Last 15 return points won: Pacheco 41% vs Jubb 39%
• Last 15 break points saved: Pacheco 70% vs Jubb 55.4%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Pacheco's stronger recent hard-court game and higher overall win rate suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.

• Pacheco last 15 first-set win rate implied by 60% overall record and 82% career first-set win conversion
• Jubb last 15 first-set win rate implied by 40% overall record and 90% career first-set win conversion
• Pacheco last 15 hard-court games won: 56.4% vs Jubb 43.3%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Jubb's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, makes the combined total likely to exceed 6.5.

• Jubb last 15 double faults per match: 4.4
• Pacheco last 15 double faults per match: 2.6
• Combined average double faults per match: 7.0
• Jubb hard-court double faults per match: 5.0