Bogota - ColombiaFinished

Predictions graded

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #338Mexico0Felipe Meligeni Alves #807Brazil2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Tue 7 Jul 2026, 19:51 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRodrigo Pacheco Mendez · 469 places

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

Former junior world No. 1 in May 2023 and Mexico's top singles player on public ATP sources. He reached a career-high No. 196 in September 2025 and recorded his first ATP Tour match win at Acapulco in February 2025.

Current ranking: #338
Peak ranking: #196 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Career-high No. 117 came on 21 April 2025. ATP bio lists clay as his favorite surface, and public ranking sources show him entering July 2026 well below that peak.

Current ranking: #807
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jul 2026, 06:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez’s strong recent form and 7-3 clay record give him a moderate edge over Felipe Meligeni Alves, despite losing their only prior meeting.

Expect a tight, extended match with value on Over 2.5 sets and Pacheco Mendez to win, as both players frequently go to three sets and their H2H featured two tiebreaks.

Context

Pacheco Mendez beat McDonald (rank 145) 6-2 6-2 and Pavlovic (rank 217) 4-6 6-3 6-0 in April.
- Meligeni Alves lost to Casanova (rank 409) 7-6 7-5 on 4 July, just before their H2H.
- Pacheco Mendez is 7-3 on clay in 2026, while Meligeni Alves is 9-9 on the surface this year.
Meligeni Alves won 2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5) on clay in the previous tournament.
- Pacheco Mendez won the first set 6-2 and had chances in the tiebreaks.
- The rematch comes just four days later, giving Pacheco Mendez a quick chance to adjust.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Pacheco Mendez's stronger recent form against better opposition and superior clay-court consistency give him a moderate edge despite the recent H2H loss.
- Pacheco Mendez won 7 of last 10 matches, including a dominant 6-2 6-2 win over Goity Zapico and a 6-4 6-1 win over Hernandez.
- Meligeni Alves lost to Casanova (rank 409) just before their H2H, while Pacheco Mendez has beaten higher-ranked opponents like McDonald (145) and Pavlovic (217) recently.
- Pacheco Mendez holds a 7-3 clay record in 2026, while Meligeni Alves is 9-9 on clay this year, with losses to lower-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in extended matches recently, and their H2H was a tight three-setter, making a high game count likely.
- Their only H2H featured 34 games (2-6 7-6 7-6).
- Pacheco Mendez's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with three of them going over 21.5.
- Meligeni Alves' last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with two tight three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive first sets recently, making a longer opening set probable.
- Pacheco Mendez's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 going over 9.5.
- Meligeni Alves' last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 going over 9.5.
- Their H2H first set had 8 games, but recent trends suggest a tighter opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set in their H2H was extended, and recent patterns show both players often play tight second sets.
- Pacheco Mendez's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 4 going over 9.5.
- Meligeni Alves' last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 going over 9.5.
- Their H2H second set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacheco Mendez's strong first-set record and the H2H evidence suggest he is likely to start quickly again.
- Pacheco Mendez won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches, including against McDonald and Pavlovic.
- Meligeni Alves dropped the first set in 5 of his last 10 matches, including against Casanova and McDonald.
- In their only H2H, Pacheco Mendez won the first set 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players and their tight H2H indicate a strong chance of a deciding set.
- Pacheco Mendez has gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15 matches.
- Meligeni Alves has gone to three sets in 6 of his last 15 matches.
- Their only H2H was a three-setter.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H was decided by tiebreaks, and both players have been involved in multiple tiebreaks recently, making at least one likely.
- Their H2H featured two tiebreaks.
- Pacheco Mendez has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Meligeni Alves has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez#338vFelipe Meligeni Alves#807Jul 3, 2026

1 total meetings

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

11W 4L

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)#807Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-2 6-2—Segundo Goity Zapico

5-7 6-2 6-4#628Bruno Fernandez

6-4 6-3#469Mees Rottgering

6-4 6-1#422Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 6-1#895Timo Legout

6-1 6-1—Alan Raul Sau Franco

5-1 ret.—Rodrigo Reyna

2-6 6-4 7-6(1)#217Luka Pavlovic

6-4 3-6 7-5#435Bor Artnak

6-2 6-2#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

4-6 6-3 7-6(7)#79James Duckworth

3-6 6-1 6-4#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

4-6 6-3 6-0#217Luka Pavlovic

6-4 6-2#482Tibo Colson

Felipe Meligeni Alves

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#1664Brandon Perez

6-1 6-1#1367Andres Urrea

7-6(5) 7-5#409Hernan Casanova

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)#338Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-2 6-4#442Valerio Aboian

6-1 6-2#813Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 6-1#900Fermin Tenti

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

2-6 6-3 2-0 ret.#287Juan Manuel La Serna

3-6 6-0 2-0 ret.#548Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 3-6 6-2#98Jaime Faria

6-1 6-0—Victor Braga

6-4 3-6 6-3#72Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

5-7 6-1 6-3#811Benjamin Torrealba

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#504Joao Eduardo Schiessl