Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Pacheco Mendez's superior recent clay form (7-2 in 2026) and dominant Quito performances give him a clear edge over Meligeni Alves, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents on clay this season.
- Pacheco Mendez is 7-2 on clay in 2026, including dominant wins this week in Quito (6-2 6-2, 5-7 6-2 6-4).
- Meligeni Alves is 6-8 on clay in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside top 200 (Midon, Olivieri, Varillas).
- Pacheco Mendez has a higher career win-on-first-serve (69% vs 66%) and similar return points won (40% each).
- Meligeni Alves has a 58.9% career win rate but only 51% in deciding sets, while Pacheco Mendez has 48% in deciding sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown ability to win efficiently on clay in Quito, with Meligeni Alves' recent matches averaging under 20 games, suggesting a relatively quick match if one player dominates.
- Meligeni Alves' last 3 wins in Quito were all straight-set victories with total games of 18, 15, and 16.
- Pacheco Mendez's last 2 wins in Quito were straight-set (16 games) and three-set (30 games), but his straight-set win had only 16 games.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Meligeni 43%, Pacheco 41%), leading to potential quick sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Pacheco Mendez's strong first-set record (82% career conversion) and recent trend of winning opening sets on clay suggest he will start better than Meligeni Alves, who has dropped first sets in recent matches.
- Pacheco Mendez has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay.
- Meligeni Alves has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents.
- Pacheco Mendez's first-set win conversion rate is 82% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players converting break points at over 40% and relatively few recent tiebreaks, a tiebreak-free match is more probable, especially on clay where breaks are common.
- Meligeni Alves has a 58% career tiebreak win rate but has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Pacheco Mendez has a 42% career tiebreak win rate and has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates, reducing the likelihood of tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having moderate ace rates, the total aces could exceed 6.5 if the match goes to three sets, though clay surface typically suppresses ace counts.
- Pacheco Mendez has a 5.4% ace rate, averaging ~3-4 aces per match in best-of-3.
- Meligeni Alves has a 3.8% ace rate, averaging ~2-3 aces per match.
- Combined, they average around 6 aces per match, but clay reduces ace counts slightly.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacheco Mendez's elevated double-fault rate (4.6%) combined with Meligeni Alves' moderate rate makes over 5.5 double faults likely, especially if the match extends to three sets.
- Pacheco Mendez has a high double-fault rate of 4.6%, averaging ~3-4 double faults per match.
- Meligeni Alves has a 2.3% double-fault rate, averaging ~1-2 per match.
- Combined, they average around 5 double faults per match, with Pacheco Mendez's high rate pushing the total up.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Felipe Meligeni Alves #807Brazil2Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #338Mexico1

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Felipe Meligeni Alves

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

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Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

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Felipe Meligeni Alves

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez