JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Kim #584United States1Garrett Johns #381United States2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 2-6Tue 25 Aug 2026, 16:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGarrett Johns · 203 places

Aidan Kim

United States

Ohio State lists Kim as a 6-foot-3 junior from Milford, Michigan. He went 17-11 in singles during 2025-26, primarily at No. 1, and qualified for the 2026-27 PIF ATP Next Gen Accelerator Program.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Garrett Johns

United States

Johns reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 279 in November 2025. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #381
Peak ranking: #279 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Aidan Kim holds a moderate edge over Garrett Johns based on superior recent form and serve efficiency, but the 1.44 odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are over 9.5 total aces and under 5.5 double faults, given Kim's high ace rate and both players' low double-fault averages.

Context

Kim last15 first serve points won 75.4% vs Johns 66.8%
- Kim last15 break points saved 70.4% vs Johns 58%
- Kim last15 total points won 52.1% vs Johns 48.9%
Johns won two Kingston Open 1 qualifying matches on 16-17 August
- One match went three sets against Timo Legout
- Kim also won a qualifying match here, so both know the conditions
H2H 2025: Johns won 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(2)
- Both players had similar first-serve percentages in that match
- Kim had a higher break point conversion rate but lost

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Aidan Kim

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Kim's stronger recent form and serve efficiency on hard courts give him a moderate edge over Johns.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Aidan Kim

1.44fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Kim's superior first-serve points won and break point saving in recent matches support a strong start.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kim's stronger recent form and serve efficiency on hard courts give him a moderate edge over Johns.
- Kim last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Johns 8-7 (53.3%)
- Kim last15 Hard record 6-4 (60%) vs Johns 6-5 (54.5%)
- Kim last15 total points won 52.1% vs Johns 48.9%
- Kim last15 first serve points won 75.4% vs Johns 66.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAidan KimEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average near or above 21.5 games, and their only H2H went to three sets.
- Kim last15 average games per match 20.0 (300 games / 15 matches)
- Johns last15 average games per match 22.9 (344 games / 15 matches)
- H2H 2025 match had 30 games (3-6 6-2 7-6(2))
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's edge in games won percentage suggests he can cover a small handicap.
- Kim last15 games won percentage 56% vs Johns 49.7%
- Kim last15 Hard games won percentage 55.7% vs Johns 50.2%
- Kim last15 total points won 52.1% vs Johns 48.9%
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAidan Kim -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent set averages are close to 9.5, making the over a near coin flip.
- Kim last15 average set games 9.4 (300 games / 32 sets)
- Johns last15 average set games 9.1 (344 games / 38 sets)
- H2H first set was 3-6 (9 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kim's superior first-serve performance and break point saving in recent matches support a strong start.
- Kim career first set win conversion 88% vs Johns 89%
- Kim last15 first serve points won 75.4% vs Johns 66.8%
- Kim last15 break points saved 70.4% vs Johns 58%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan KimEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 3 double faults per match, making the under 5.5 likely.
- Kim last15 double faults per match 3.0 (42 in 14 matches)
- Johns last15 double faults per match 2.4 (33 in 14 matches)
- Combined average double faults per match 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's high ace rate combined with Johns' moderate ace output pushes the combined total above 9.5.
- Kim last15 aces per match 6.6 (93 aces in 14 matches)
- Johns last15 aces per match 3.5 (49 aces in 14 matches)
- Combined average aces per match 10.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L3-6 6-2 7-6(2)Aidan Kim#586vGarrett Johns#406Jul 21, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Aidan Kim

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#624Dan Martin 6-0 6-3#889Ronit Karki

6-3 6-2#342Edward Winter

6-3 6-1—Unknown Player

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#394Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#897Trey Hilderbrand

3-6 6-2 6-2#150Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 6-4#452Karl Poling

6-3 6-2#390Trevor Svajda

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#537Gavin Young

7-6(4) 6-3#625Bruno Kuzuhara

7-6(2) 6-2#389Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-2—Alejandro Hernandez Gutierrez

6-2 7-6(2)#865Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-4—Liam Krall

Garrett Johns

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#148Pedro Martinez Portero

2-6 6-4 3-2 ret. #475Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-4 6-1#441Timo Legout

6-3 6-1#589Guillaume Dalmasso

6-3 6-3#389Mees Rottgering

6-0 4-0 ret.#1033Anirudh Chandrasekar

2-6 6-1 6-1#513Alan Magadan

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(4)#244August Holmgren

6-4 6-7(2) 6-4#508Enzo Aguiard

4-6 6-4 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

7-6(2) 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#864Patrick Maloney

5-7 6-3 6-3#241Darwin Blanch

6-4 6-2#295Stefan Kozlov

6-4 6-3#470Blake Ellis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAidan KimKim

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Garrett JohnsJohnsGJ

Aidan Kim carries the stronger recent form — Garrett Johns's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1558.0%+0.8pp58.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1575.4%+8.6pp66.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1553.3%+4.7pp48.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.6+3.13.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.00.6 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.9%+1.1pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1540.2%+5.5pp45.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1570.4%+12.4pp58.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1552.1%+3.2pp48.9%

Serve · 3–2

58.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+0.8pp58.8%

75.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+8.6pp66.8%

53.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+4.7pp48.6%

6.6Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+3.13.5

3.0Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.6 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

38.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+1.1pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

40.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+5.5pp45.7%

70.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+12.4pp58.0%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.2pp48.9%