JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Kim #584United States2Ronit Karki #895United States0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Sun 23 Aug 2026, 15:05 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Kim · 311 places

Aidan Kim

United States

Ohio State lists Kim as a 6-foot-3 junior from Milford, Michigan. He went 17-11 in singles during 2025-26, primarily at No. 1, and qualified for the 2026-27 PIF ATP Next Gen Accelerator Program.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Ronit Karki

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #895
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Aidan Kim is the clear favorite over Ronit Karki based on ranking, form, and serve stats, but the match winner odds offer no value.

Better betting angles include Karki +3.5 games, over 21.5 total games, and over 8.5 total aces.

Context

Kim's last 15 record is 10-5 (66.7%), while Karki's is 6-9 (40%).
- Kim lost to Edward Winter (ranked 355) and Dhakshineswar Suresh (ranked 400) in his last five matches.
- Kim's wins have mostly come against unranked or lower-ranked opponents.
Karki's last 15 sets won percentage is 42.4% (14 of 33 sets).
- He saves only 54.8% of break points, compared to Kim's 70.1%.
- Karki has lost in straight sets in 7 of his 9 losses.
Kim's first-serve points won on hard courts is 73.4% (10 matches tracked).
- Karki's first-serve points won on hard courts is 65.7% (15 matches tracked).
- Kim's break-point save rate on hard courts is 72%, Karki's is 54.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Kim

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Kim's superior ranking, recent form, and hard-court point-winning profile give him a clear edge, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Kim

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Kim's stronger serve and break-point resilience should help him take the opening set.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Aidan Kim 2-0

1.50fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Despite Kim's strong straight-set record, the model estimate of 45% is well below the implied 66.7%, so this line is overpriced.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Kim's superior recent form, ranking, and point-winning profile on hard courts give him a clear edge over Karki.
- Aidan Kim last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Ronit Karki 6-9 (40%)
- Kim last 15 hard-court record 6-4, Karki 6-9 on hard
- Kim ranking 574 vs Karki 895
- Kim last 15 total points won 51.8% vs Karki 48.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan KimEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karki's ability to stay competitive in sets should keep the total game margin within 3.5 games.
- Kim last 15 average games won per match 11.3, Karki 9.4
- Karki has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents (e.g., lost 6-4 7-5 to Vazquez)
- Kim's recent wins often by 4-6 game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRonit Karki +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Kim's edge, Karki's competitiveness in sets and both players' moderate game totals suggest a match that could exceed 21.5 games.
- Kim last 15 average 20.5 games per match, Karki 20.6
- Kim last 15 games won 54.9%, Karki 45.6%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Kim's stronger serve and break-point resilience should help him take the opening set.
- Kim first-set win conversion career 88%, Karki 93%
- Kim last 15 first serve points won 73.3% vs Karki 65.7%
- Kim last 15 break points saved 70.1% vs Karki 54.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan KimEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's high ace rate combined with Karki's lower but non-zero ace count makes over 8.5 total aces likely.
- Kim last 15 aces per match 6.4, Karki 2.6
- Combined average aces per match 9.0
- Kim's first serve points won 73.3% indicates strong serving
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2.5 double faults per match, making over 5.5 total double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Kim last 15 double faults per match 2.9, Karki 3.6
- Combined average double faults per match 6.5
- Karki's second serve points won only 47.6% suggests pressure on serve
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Kim offers no value and ignores Karki's ability to keep sets competitive.

Aidan Kim

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#355Edward Winter

6-3 6-1—Unknown Player

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#400Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#897Trey Hilderbrand

3-6 6-2 6-2#152Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 6-4#491Karl Poling

6-3 6-2#383Trevor Svajda

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#552Gavin Young

7-6(4) 6-3#596Bruno Kuzuhara

7-6(2) 6-2#418Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-2—Alejandro Hernandez Gutierrez

6-2 7-6(2)#881Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-4—Liam Krall

7-6(2) 6-2#890Theodore Dean

6-3 6-2—Joaquim Almeida

Ronit Karki

6W 9L

6-2 6-1—Lev Seidman

6-4 6-2#527Pavle Marinkov

6-1 6-7(14) 6-3#437James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#445Spencer Johnson

6-1 6-4#881Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-4—Vit Kalina

6-4 7-5—Felipe Vazquez

6-4 6-2#819Taiyo Yamanaka

7-6(4) 6-2—Aryan Lakshmanan

6-4 7-6(7)#727Manish Sureshkumar

6-2 6-1—Parth Aggarwal

6-3 6-2—Aradhya Kshitij

6-4 6-3#812Finn Murgett

6-3 6-1#357Anton Matusevich

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#824Conor Gannon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAidan KimKim

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Ronit KarkiKarkiRK

Aidan Kim carries the stronger recent form — Ronit Karki's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1559.7%+4.7pp55.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1573.3%+7.6pp65.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1554.6%+7.0pp47.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.4+3.82.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.90.7 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.0%—38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1543.0%+2.5pp40.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1570.1%+15.3pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1551.8%+3.6pp48.2%

Serve · 5–0

59.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+4.7pp55.0%

73.3%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+7.6pp65.7%

54.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+7.0pp47.6%

6.4Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+3.82.6

2.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.7 fewer3.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

43.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+2.5pp40.5%

70.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+15.3pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.6pp48.2%