JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Aidan Kim #584United States2Dan Martin #636Canada0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Mon 24 Aug 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Kim · 52 places

Aidan Kim

United States

Ohio State lists Kim as a 6-foot-3 junior from Milford, Michigan. He went 17-11 in singles during 2025-26, primarily at No. 1, and qualified for the 2026-27 PIF ATP Next Gen Accelerator Program.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Dan Martin

Canada

Reliable current public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking, handedness and height was limited. Tennis Canada described him as a 2025 M15 title winner.

Current ranking: #636
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Aidan Kim is the clear favourite based on superior recent form, hard-court results, and return stats, but the match winner odds of 1.22 offer no value.

Better betting angles include Kim to win the first set, under 21.5 total games, and Kim to win 2-0 in set betting.

Context

Kim last15 Hard record: 6-4 (60%) vs Martin 1-7 (12.5%).
- Kim last15 Hard return points won: 37.5% vs Martin 32.6%.
- Kim last15 Hard first serve points won: 74.6% vs Martin 67.0%.
Martin lost 6-2 6-2 to Keegan Rice on 7 July.
- Martin lost 6-4 6-3 to Zsombor Velcz on 10 June.
- Martin's last15 Hard sets won percentage is only 30%.
Kim career first set win conversion: 88%.
- Kim last15 Hard average games per match: 20.0.
- Kim won his last match 6-0 6-3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Kim

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Kim's superior recent form and hard-court results, combined with better return stats, make him the clear favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Kim's superior recent form and hard-court results, combined with better return stats, make him the clear favorite.
- Kim last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Martin 4-11 (26.7%)
- Kim last15 Hard record 6-4 (60%) vs Martin 1-7 (12.5%)
- Kim last15 return points won 38.5% vs Martin 34.8%
- Kim ranking 574 vs Martin 636
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan KimEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's matches tend to be shorter, and his dominance in recent hard-court wins suggests a straight-set victory with fewer games.
- Kim last15 average games per match 20.4 (306 games / 15 matches)
- Martin last15 average games per match 24.8 (372 games / 15 matches)
- Kim last15 Hard average games per match 20.0 (200 games / 10 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's recent first sets have been efficient, and Martin has struggled on hard courts, making a shorter first set likely.
- Kim last15 Hard first set average games 8.6 (86 games / 10 matches)
- Martin last15 Hard first set average games 9.9 (79 games / 8 matches)
- Kim won 6-0, 6-3 in his last match
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's strong first-serve performance and high first-set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.
- Kim first set win conversion 88% career
- Kim last15 first serve points won 74.1% vs Martin 67.4%
- Kim last15 Hard first serve points won 74.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan KimEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's recent hard-court dominance and Martin's struggles suggest a straight-set victory for Kim.
- Kim last15 Hard straight-set wins in 5 of 6 wins
- Martin last15 Hard lost 6 of 8 matches in straight sets
- Kim won last match 6-0, 6-3
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAidan Kim 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kim's ability to close sets without tiebreaks and Martin's weaker tiebreak record reduce the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Kim last15 tiebreak win percentage 63% career
- Martin last15 tiebreak win percentage 43% career
- Kim's recent matches often decided in straight sets without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute to a combined ace average above the line, though Martin's lower ace rate adds uncertainty.
- Kim last15 aces per match 6.6
- Martin last15 aces per match 3.8
- Combined average aces per match 10.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average exceeds the line, but variance in individual matches keeps confidence low.
- Kim last15 double faults per match 2.9
- Martin last15 double faults per match 3.4
- Combined average double faults per match 6.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 7-5Aidan Kim#574vDan Martin#636Apr 26, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Aidan Kim

10W 5L

6-0 6-3#895Ronit Karki

6-3 6-2#355Edward Winter

6-3 6-1—Unknown Player

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#400Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#897Trey Hilderbrand

3-6 6-2 6-2#152Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 6-4#491Karl Poling

6-3 6-2#383Trevor Svajda

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#552Gavin Young

7-6(4) 6-3#596Bruno Kuzuhara

7-6(2) 6-2#418Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-2—Alejandro Hernandez Gutierrez

6-2 7-6(2)#881Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-4—Liam Krall

7-6(2) 6-2#890Theodore Dean

Dan Martin

4W 11L

6-0 6-1—Nicholas Gore

6-3 5-7 6-4#193Lautaro Midon

3-6 7-5 4-2 ret.—Mikael Arseneault

6-2 6-2#591Keegan Rice

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 6-3#889Zsombor Velcz

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#219Braden Shick

2-6 6-4 7-5#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-4 4-6 6-1#548Kaylan Bigun

6-1 7-6(5)#1352Ryan Haviland

6-3 6-3#596Bruno Kuzuhara

6-4 6-3#1576Boris Arias

3-6 6-3 7-6(2)#616Aidan Mayo

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-4#425Beibit Zhukayev

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#246Marc-Andrea Huesler

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAidan KimKim

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Dan MartinMartinDM

Aidan Kim carries the stronger recent form — Dan Martin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1559.2%+2.3pp61.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1574.1%+6.7pp67.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1553.8%+3.9pp49.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/156.6+2.83.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.90.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.5%+3.7pp34.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1543.9%—43.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1568.5%+9.3pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1551.9%+3.7pp48.2%

Serve · 4–1

59.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+2.3pp61.5%

74.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+6.7pp67.4%

53.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.9pp49.9%

6.6Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+2.83.8

2.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

38.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.7pp34.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15—43.7%

68.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+9.3pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.7pp48.2%