United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom2Mark CebanUnited Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Thu 20 Aug 2026, 15:20 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Mark Ceban

United Kingdom

British player, age 17. He received a Wimbledon qualifying wild card in June 2026; reliable public sources in the requested search did not establish a current ranking, career-high ranking, height, or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Anton Matusevich is the clear favourite based on superior recent form and a higher level of opposition, but the 1.30 odds overstate his edge.

The best value is on Matusevich to win the first set at 1.40, while the straight-sets win at 1.85 is best avoided due to Ceban's resilience.

Context

Matusevich last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Ceban 8-7 (53.3%)
- Matusevich hard-court last 6 record 5-1 (83.3%), Ceban hard-court last 11 record 8-3 (72.7%)
- Matusevich beat #172 Elmer Moller 6-1 6-3 in the previous round, a strong win over a higher-ranked opponent.
Ceban's last 11 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 3 losses, with wins over players ranked #622, #498, #488, #891, and unranked opponents.
- Ceban's loss to Lui Maxted (ranked #403) was a three-set defeat, showing he can struggle against higher-ranked players.
- Ceban's career win percentage is 36.4%, indicating a lower baseline level than Matusevich's 62.6%.
Matusevich first-set win conversion 85% career
- Matusevich won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
- Ceban first-set win conversion 80% career but lower overall level

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Anton Matusevich

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Matusevich has superior recent form and a higher level of opposition, but the odds overstate his edge relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Anton Matusevich

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Matusevich's first-set win conversion and recent form suggest he is likely to take the opener, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Anton Matusevich

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

−6.4ppshort

Matusevich's overall superiority and recent form make him likely to win the second set, but the odds are slightly unfavorable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Matusevich has stronger recent form and a higher level of opposition, giving him a clear edge in this hard-court quarter-final.
- Matusevich last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Ceban 8-7 (53.3%)
- Matusevich hard-court last 6 record 5-1 (83.3%), Ceban hard-court last 11 record 8-3 (72.7%)
- Matusevich ranking 357 vs Ceban unranked; Matusevich beat #172 Elmer Moller 6-1 6-3 in previous round
- Matusevich career win% 62.6% vs Ceban 36.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have produced relatively quick matches recently, supporting a lower total games line.
- Matusevich last 15 average total games per match: 21.7
- Ceban last 15 average total games per match: 20.6
- Matusevich recent wins: 6-1 6-3, 6-4 7-5, 6-3 6-4
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set patterns suggest a relatively one-sided opening set is plausible.
- Matusevich last 5 first-set scores: 6-1, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3
- Ceban last 5 first-set scores: 6-1, 6-1, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
- Both players often win first sets comfortably
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set could also be relatively short if Matusevich maintains control.
- Matusevich last 5 second-set scores: 6-3, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
- Ceban last 5 second-set scores: 7-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3
- Both players have shown ability to close out sets efficiently
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Matusevich's strong first-set record and recent fast starts make him likely to take the opener.
- Matusevich first-set win conversion 85% career
- Matusevich won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
- Ceban first-set win conversion 80% career but lower overall level
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low tiebreak frequency in recent matches suggests a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Matusevich tiebreak win% 54%, Ceban 80% but small sample
- Matusevich last 15 matches: 4 tiebreaks in 33 sets (12%)
- Ceban last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks in 33 sets (15%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 4.5 a reasonable lean.
- Matusevich last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Ceban last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a total above 6.5 is slightly more likely.
- Matusevich last 15 aces per match: 4.4
- Ceban last 15 aces per match: 2.5
- Combined average aces per match: 6.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Anton Matusevich

11W 4L

6-1 6-3#172Elmer Moller 6-4 7-5#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#380Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#475Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#824Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#342Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#283Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#266Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#529Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(6) 6-1#788Michael Agwi

7-6(4) 7-5#729Aryan Shah

6-2 6-2#326Calvin Hemery

Mark Ceban

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(5)#622Iliyan Radulov 6-1 6-3#498Anton Shepp

7-5 4-6 6-1#403Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(3)#488George Loffhagen

6-3 6-3#891Charlie Robertson

7-6(5) 6-0—Luke Hooper

6-3 6-2—Henry Jefferson

1-6 6-1 6-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 7-5—Luke Hooper

6-2 6-4#190Roberto Carballes Baena

7-5 7-5#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-1 6-3#227Oliver Crawford

4-6 6-3 6-4—Aaron Funk

6-4 6-1—Nicholas Godsick

6-3 7-6(10)—Stefan Cooper

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAnton MatusevichMatusevich

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Mark CebanCebanMC

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Mark Ceban's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.1%+9.6pp66.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.4%+10.9pp64.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.8%+1.3pp50.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.4+1.92.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.50.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.7%—39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1547.1%+4.2pp51.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.5%+6.2pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.4%+2.4pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

57.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+9.6pp66.7%

75.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+10.9pp64.5%

51.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp50.5%

4.4Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.92.5

2.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—39.1%

Pressure · 1–1

47.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp51.3%

62.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.2pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp50.0%