United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom2Patrick Brady #812United Kingdom1

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 7-5Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–340%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLui Maxted · 409 places

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Patrick Brady

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 14 November 2004. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 728 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury trajectory source was found.

Current ranking: #812
Peak ranking: #728 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Patrick Brady's strong hard-court record (75% wins, 76.5% sets won) and superior serve metrics give him the edge over Lui Maxted.

Betting value exists on Brady to win the match (1.95, model 58%) and first set (1.90, model 56%), plus over 21.5 total games. Maxted's high double fault rate and Brady's first-serve dominance are key factors.

Context

Brady last15 Hard record 6-2 (75%), sets won 76.5%, games won 60.6%
- Brady last15 Hard first serve points won 74.8%, first serve in 74.4%
- Maxted last15 Hard first serve points won 66.0%, first serve in 65.3%
Maxted last15 Hard double faults per match 4.3
- Brady last15 Hard double faults per match 1.0
- Maxted last15 Hard second serve points won 50.3%
Brady last15 Hard break points saved 41.2% (7 of 17)
- Maxted last15 Hard break points converted 43.4%
- Brady last15 overall break points saved 43.1%

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Brady's superior recent hard-court dominance (75% win rate, 76.5% sets won) and stronger serve metrics give him the edge over Maxted's more modest 61.5% hard-court form.
- Brady last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), sets won 62.5%, games won 54.5%
- Brady last15 Hard record 6-2 (75%), sets won 76.5%, games won 60.6%
- Maxted last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), sets won 54.3%, games won 52.8%
- Maxted last15 Hard record 8-5 (61.5%), sets won 54.8%, games won 52.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick BradyEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average over 20 games, and Maxted's longer matches suggest a competitive contest likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Maxted last15 average duration 116.3 minutes, games per match avg 22.7
- Brady last15 average duration 103.2 minutes, games per match avg 20.5
- Maxted last15 Hard average duration 122.5 minutes, games per match avg 23.5
- Brady last15 Hard average duration 106.6 minutes, games per match avg 20.0
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent first sets average near or above 9.5 games, indicating a tight opening set is likely.
- Maxted last15 Hard first set average games 9.8
- Brady last15 Hard first set average games 9.1
- Maxted last15 overall first set average games 9.7
- Brady last15 overall first set average games 9.3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Brady's stronger first-serve effectiveness on hard courts should help him start fast and take the opening set.
- Brady last15 first serve points won 70.9%, first serve in 71.2%
- Maxted last15 first serve points won 66.6%, first serve in 65.1%
- Brady last15 Hard first serve points won 74.8%
- Maxted last15 Hard first serve points won 66.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick BradyEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maxted's high double fault rate alone pushes the combined total near 5.5, making over 5.5 slightly favored.
- Maxted last15 double faults per match 4.3
- Brady last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Maxted last15 Hard double faults per match 4.3
- Brady last15 Hard double faults per match 1.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest around 5-6 aces per match, making over 5.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Maxted last15 aces per match 2.7
- Brady last15 aces per match 2.7
- Maxted last15 Hard aces per match 2.7
- Brady last15 Hard aces per match 3.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Lui Maxted

9W 6L

7-5 7-6(1)#286Matteo Martineau

6-1 7-5#289Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#874Marcus Walters

5-7 6-2 6-3—Rhys Lawlor

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Billy Blaydes

7-5 6-4—Clement Lemire

3-6 7-5 6-1—Louis Larue

7-6(7) 6-2#832Benjamin Pietri

6-3 6-4#542Ivan Ivanov

6-3 6-1#341Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 6-3#525Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-3—Nikola Djukic Valera

6-3 6-1#352Tiago Torres

6-2 7-5#620Alberto Barroso Campos

Patrick Brady

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(4)#585Alec Deckers 6-1 6-4#460Alafia Ayeni 6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-4#475Emile Hudd

7-6(5) 6-4#816Toby Martin

6-3 6-2#965Alexis Canter

6-1 6-1#270Alastair Gray

6-3 7-5#736Herman Hoeyeraal

7-6(4) 6-3#659Ryan Seggerman

6-2 6-1—James Mackinlay

7-5 6-4#276Giles Hussey

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#213Rio Noguchi

7-5 7-6(4)#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 4-6 6-3#431Cyril Vandermeersch

6-3 6-0—Raghav Jaisinghani

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LMLui MaxtedMaxted

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Patrick BradyBradyPB

Patrick Brady carries the stronger recent form — Lui Maxted's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.1%+6.1pp71.2%

1st Serve Won66.6%+4.3pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+5.8pp55.4%

Aces / Match2.7—2.7

Double Faults / Match4.33.0 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.8%+2.4pp38.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.7%+3.4pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+20.2pp43.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+1.3pp52.2%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

65.1%1st Serve In+6.1pp71.2%

66.6%1st Serve Won+4.3pp70.9%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp55.4%

2.7Aces / Match—2.7

4.3Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won+2.4pp38.4%

Pressure · 2–0

44.7%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp41.3%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+20.2pp43.1%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.2%