United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Matteo Martineau #286France0Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom2

Sets 5-7 · 6-7Tue 18 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatteo Martineau · 117 places

Matteo Martineau

France

Martineau reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 1 July 2024. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #170 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Maxted has a slight edge due to better recent form and return game, but Martineau's strong hard-court sample makes this a near coin flip.

The best value is Over 9.5 games in the first set, with a 5.6-point edge. Expect a tight match with possible tiebreaks and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Martineau's last 15 hard-court record is 80% (4-1), but only 5 matches tracked.
- His overall last-15 record is 53.3% (8-7), showing inconsistency across surfaces.
- On hard courts, he has won 54.5% of games, suggesting competitive but not dominant play.
Maxted's return points won is 41.3% vs Martineau's 36.3% in last 15 overall.
- On hard courts, Maxted's return points won is 41.5% across 13 matches.
- Maxted converts 46.9% of break points, while Martineau converts 52.9%, but Maxted creates more opportunities.
Martineau's double faults per match: 3.9; Maxted: 4.1 in last 15 overall.
- On hard courts, Martineau's double faults drop to 2.4, but Maxted's stays high at 4.2.
- High double fault rates often lead to extended service games and more deuce situations.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lui Maxted

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Maxted's superior recent return game and better overall last-15 record on hard courts give him a slight edge, though Martineau's small-sample hard-court form is strong.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Maxted's superior recent return game and better overall last-15 record on hard courts give him a slight edge, though Martineau's small-sample hard-court form is strong.
- Last 15 overall record: Maxted 60% (9-6) vs Martineau 53.3% (8-7)
- Hard surface last 15: Maxted 61.5% (8-5) vs Martineau 80% (4-1, small sample)
- Return points won last 15: Maxted 41.3% vs Martineau 36.3%
- Career hard-court wins: Maxted 55 vs Martineau 63, but Maxted has stronger recent hard-court form
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with long durations and high double fault counts, suggesting a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Martineau last 15 average match duration: 100.4 minutes; Maxted: 115.9 minutes
- Martineau last 15 games won percentage: 49.7%; Maxted: 53%
- Both players have high double fault rates (Martineau 3.9, Maxted 4.1 per match), extending games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' competitive recent form and similar serve/return profiles, making over 9.5 games probable.
- Martineau last 15 first set average games: 9.3; Maxted: 9.7
- Both players have tiebreak history: Martineau 53% career tiebreak win, Maxted 50%
- Recent hard-court matches for both have featured multiple close sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maxted's strong first-set conversion rate and better return numbers suggest he can edge the opener, but the margin is thin.
- Maxted first-set win conversion career: 92% vs Martineau 81%
- Maxted last 15 first serve points won: 66% vs Martineau 69%
- Maxted last 15 return points won: 41.3% vs Martineau 36.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average exceeds the line, and both players have shown vulnerability on serve, making over 7.5 likely.
- Martineau last 15 double faults per match: 3.9; Maxted: 4.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.0
- Both players have high double fault rates on hard courts (Martineau 2.4, Maxted 4.2)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Matteo Martineau

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#880Max Dahlin

6-4 3-6 6-1#207Luka Pavlovic

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#227Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#282Yanki Erel

6-3 7-6(6)#322Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 6-3#429Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-4#546Gerard Campana Lee

6-3 6-2#299Philip Henning

6-3 6-3#301Petr Nesterov

6-3 6-2#622Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-1#545Luca Wiedenmann

6-2 7-5#779Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-3 6-3#170Tristan Boyer

6-7(4) 6-4 6-2—Mickael Kaouk

4-6 6-3 6-4#566Maxime Janvier

Lui Maxted

9W 6L

6-1 7-5#289Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#874Marcus Walters

5-7 6-2 6-3—Rhys Lawlor

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Billy Blaydes

7-5 6-4—Clement Lemire

3-6 7-5 6-1—Louis Larue

7-6(7) 6-2#832Benjamin Pietri

6-3 6-4#542Ivan Ivanov

6-3 6-1#341Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 6-3#525Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-3—Nikola Djukic Valera

6-3 6-1#352Tiago Torres

6-2 7-5#620Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-5#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMatteo MartineauMartineau

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Lui MaxtedMaxtedLM

Matteo Martineau carries the stronger recent form — Lui Maxted's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In70.2%+7.0pp63.2%

1st Serve Won69.0%+3.0pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won41.2%+9.2pp50.4%

Aces / Match3.6+0.92.7

Double Faults / Match3.9—4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+5.0pp41.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.9%+6.0pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved63.2%+0.8pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+1.5pp50.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

70.2%1st Serve In+7.0pp63.2%

69.0%1st Serve Won+3.0pp66.0%

41.2%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp50.4%

3.6Aces / Match+0.92.7

3.9Double Faults / Match—4.1

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+5.0pp41.3%

Pressure · 2–0

52.9%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp46.9%

63.2%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.9%