United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Adrian Boitan #441Romania2Alastair Gray #270United Kingdom1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 6-2Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlastair Gray · 171 places

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Romania

Romanian, born 11 July 1999. The ITF lists a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 on 23 February 2026 and names hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #441
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alastair Gray

United Kingdom

Gray reached his singles career high of No. 237 in September 2022. The LTA lists hard and grass as his preferred surfaces; its background bio notes a past extended injury absence, not a current fitness concern.

Current ranking: #270
Peak ranking: #237 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard / Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Gray is the better-ranked player with a stronger hard-court pedigree, but his recent form is shaky and Boitan is competitive.

The heavy favorite price on Gray offers no value; instead, look to overs on games, sets, and aces, plus Boitan on the game handicap.

Context

Gray's last15 hard-court record is 2-3 (40%).
- He lost to Akira Santillan (rank 290) and Izan Almazan Valiente (rank 532) in recent hard-court matches.
- His last15 hard-court games won percentage is 50%, indicating close matches.
Boitan's last15 overall record is 7-8, but he won 51.6% of games.
- He has played three-set matches in 8 of his last 15 matches.
- His last15 average match duration is 122.5 minutes, indicating long battles.
Boitan's last15 double faults per match is 5.2, compared to Gray's 3.1.
- On hard courts, Boitan averages 4.7 double faults per match.
- His second serve points won is only 50.1%, making him vulnerable on second serves.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alastair Gray

1.25fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Gray's superior ranking and career hard-court pedigree give him an edge, but the model estimate of 58% is far below the 80% implied by the odds, making this a negative-value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gray's superior ranking, career hard-court pedigree, and slightly better recent overall form give him the edge on this surface.
- Gray ranking 270 vs Boitan 441
- Gray last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Boitan 7-8 (46.7%)
- Gray career hard-court wins 154 vs Boitan 36
- Gray last15 hard-court record 2-3 (40%) vs Boitan 1-2 (33.3%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlastair GrayEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show competitive recent matches with several three-setters, indicating a likely close contest with over 22 games.
- Boitan last15 average duration 122.5 min, Gray 104.2 min
- Boitan last15 games won 51.6%, Gray 53.4%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boitan's competitive game percentages suggest he can stay within 3.5 games of Gray.
- Boitan last15 games won 51.6%, Gray 53.4%
- Boitan last15 hard-court games won 46.8%, Gray 50%
- Boitan has kept matches close even in losses
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAdrian Boitan +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gray's strong first-set conversion rate and slightly better serve metrics suggest he can start quickly.
- Gray first-set win conversion 89% career vs Boitan 84%
- Gray last15 first-serve points won 71.7% vs Boitan 71.4%
- Gray last15 break points saved 69.6% vs Boitan 65.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlastair GrayEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches in their recent windows, supporting a deciding set.
- Boitan last15: 8 of 15 matches went three sets
- Gray last15: 7 of 15 matches went three sets
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 52-53%
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve enough aces, especially Gray, to push the combined total over 8.5.
- Gray last15 aces per match 5.6, Boitan 3.4
- Gray last15 hard-court aces per match 6.2, Boitan 4.3
- Combined average aces per match around 9.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boitan's high double-fault rate combined with Gray's moderate rate makes over 7.5 likely.
- Boitan last15 double faults per match 5.2, Gray 3.1
- Boitan last15 hard-court double faults per match 4.7, Gray 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match around 8.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Gray's heavy favorite price is not supported by recent hard-court form and Boitan's competitive game percentages.

Previous match context available

Adrian Boitan

7W 8L

6-3 7-6(2)#464Christian Langmo

5-7 6-3 6-4#267Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-2 6-2#690Gabriel Debru

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#236Juan Pablo Varillas

2-6 7-5 6-2—Semen Aginskiy

6-0 7-5—Vlad Cristian Breazu

4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#829Dan Alexandru Tomescu

7-5 6-4—Cezar Gabriel Papoe

3-6 6-4 6-4#649Radu David Turcanu

6-2 6-1#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

7-6(2) 6-1—David - Ioan Morega

6-3 ret.—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-2 6-3#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

6-3 3-6 7-5#595Nathaniel Lammons

6-4 6-4#257Buvaysar Gadamauri

Alastair Gray

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 6-2#475Emile Hudd

2-6 6-2 6-3#290Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-2#532Izan Almazan Valiente

7-5 6-3#205Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#244Yi Zhou

6-1 6-1#812Patrick Brady

6-2 6-4#692Oscar Weightman

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 7-5#226August Holmgren

6-1 6-1#889James Watt

6-3 6-4—Henry Jefferson

6-2 7-6(7)#306Filippo Romano

4-6 6-3 6-4#355Edward Winter

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#273Petr Bar Biryukov

6-2 5-7 7-6(3)#586Mukund Sasikumar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAdrian BoitanBoitan

Last 15

0–6

9 core stats · 3 even

Alastair GrayGrayAG

Alastair Gray carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Boitan's route runs through 1st serve won.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.7%+3.9pp65.6%

1st Serve Won71.4%—71.7%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+2.2pp52.3%

Aces / Match3.4+2.25.6

Double Faults / Match5.22.1 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.9%—38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.3%+5.3pp42.6%

Break Pts Saved65.5%+4.1pp69.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—51.5%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

61.7%1st Serve In+3.9pp65.6%

71.4%1st Serve Won—71.7%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp52.3%

3.4Aces / Match+2.25.6

5.2Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.9%Return Pts Won—38.3%

Pressure · 0–2

37.3%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp42.6%

65.5%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp69.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—51.5%