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Predictions graded

Iga Swiatek #8Poland2Elena Rybakina #2Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Thu 13 Aug 2026, 22:10 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElena Rybakina · 6 places

Iga Swiatek

Poland

Polish right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay and hard as preferred surfaces. She reached world No. 1 on 4 April 2022; the latest profile snapshot lists her at No. 8.

Current ranking: #8
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Elena Rybakina

Kazakhstan

Reached career-high No. 2 on 16 March 2026. The ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #2
Peak ranking: #2 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 184 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Swiatek's return game and recent H2H edge (4 of last 5) give her a slight advantage, but Rybakina's serve and resilience keep it close.

The over 21.5 games is the best betting angle, with Rybakina's ace rate and three-set history suggesting a lengthy final.

Context

Rybakina's last three matches went three sets: vs Gauff (5-7 6-2 6-2), vs Osaka (4-6 7-6 6-4), vs Samsonova (6-4 4-6 6-4).
- Her average match duration in last 15 is 118.3 minutes, and on hard courts it is 138.7 minutes.
- Swiatek's average match duration in last 15 is 99 minutes, suggesting fresher legs.
Swiatek last 15 return points won: 50.8% (503/990).
- Rybakina last 15 second serve points won: 48.1% (273/568).
- Rybakina's first serve is strong (74.6% points won), but her first serve in percentage is only 53.1%.
Last five H2H: Swiatek won 4, Rybakina won 1.
- Most recent hard-court meeting: Swiatek won 6-2 7-5 in Doha (Feb 2025).
- Overall H2H is 6-6, but Swiatek has won the last two meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Iga Swiatek

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Swiatek's superior return game and recent H2H edge give her a slight advantage on hard court.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Swiatek's superior return game and recent H2H edge give her a slight advantage on hard court.
- Last 15 overall record: Swiatek 73.3% vs Rybakina 66.7%
- Last 15 hard-court record: Swiatek 5-0 (100%) vs Rybakina 5-0 (100%)
- H2H overall: 6-6, but Swiatek has won 4 of last 5 meetings
- Swiatek return points won last 15: 50.8% vs Rybakina 42.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIga SwiatekEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Rybakina's serve-heavy style and recent three-set matches suggest a longer contest.
- Rybakina last 15 average match duration: 118.3 minutes
- Swiatek last 15 average match duration: 99 minutes
- Rybakina last 15 hard-court average duration: 138.7 minutes
- H2H last 3 meetings: 13, 16, 15 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first serves and returns, likely leading to a competitive opening set.
- Rybakina last 15 first serve points won: 74.6%
- Swiatek last 15 return points won: 50.8%
- H2H last 3 first sets: 7-5, 3-6, 7-5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swiatek's strong first-set conversion rate and return edge make her slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Swiatek first set win conversion career: 94%
- Rybakina first set win conversion career: 90%
- Swiatek last 15 first serve points won: 65% vs Rybakina 74.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIga SwiatekEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rybakina's elite ace rate on hard courts should push the combined total over 7.5.
- Rybakina last 15 aces per match: 6.7
- Rybakina last 15 hard-court aces per match: 9.6
- Swiatek last 15 aces per match: 1.2
- H2H Rybakina total aces in 12 matches: 71 (5.9 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3.5 double faults per match, making over 7.5 likely.
- Rybakina last 15 double faults per match: 4.6
- Swiatek last 15 double faults per match: 3.7
- Rybakina last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

6-6 (12 meetings)

L7-5 6-1Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Jan 28, 2026

L3-6 6-1 6-0Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Nov 3, 2025

W7-5 6-3Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Aug 17, 2025

W1-6 6-3 7-5Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Jun 1, 2025

W6-2 7-5Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Feb 13, 2025

W7-6(5) 6-4Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Jan 4, 2025

L6-3 4-6 6-3Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Apr 20, 2024

W7-6(8) 6-2Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Feb 17, 2024

L2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 ret.Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2May 17, 2023

L6-2 6-2Iga Swiatek#8vElena Rybakina#2Mar 17, 2023

12 total meetings

Previous match context available

Iga Swiatek

11W 4L

6-3 1-6 6-3#9Elina Svitolina 6-2 6-1#17Diana Shnaider 3-6 6-1 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

6-2 6-1#51Viktorija Golubic

6-0 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

7-6(9) 6-2#20Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-3#66Karolina Pliskova

6-1 2-6 6-3#110Taylor Townsend

7-5 2-6 6-3#28Emma Navarro

7-5 6-1#11Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-4#68Magda Linette

6-2 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

6-1 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-4 2-6 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-1 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

Elena Rybakina

10W 5L

5-7 6-2 6-2#4Cori Gauff 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#13Naomi Osaka 6-4 4-6 6-4#55Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 7-5#31Ann Li

6-3 5-7 6-4#61Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-1#24Elise Mertens

6-1 6-2#70Caty McNally

6-4 1-6 6-3#299Lois Boisson

7-5 6-4#20Alexandra Eala

7-5 2-6 6-4#72Katie Boulter

6-7(4) 7-5 6-0#80Tatjana Maria

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#65Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-2 6-2#104Veronika Erjavec

2-6 6-4 6-4#9Elina Svitolina

6-0 6-2#66Karolina Pliskova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIga SwiatekSwiatek

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Elena RybakinaRybakinaER

Iga Swiatek carries the stronger recent form — Elena Rybakina's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In66.6%+13.5pp53.1%

1st Serve Won65.0%+9.6pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+2.0pp48.1%

Aces / Match1.2+5.56.7

Double Faults / Match3.70.9 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.8%+8.2pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1549.7%+12.9pp36.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1555.8%+11.6pp67.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.7%+2.7pp52.0%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 7 vs 5

Winners / Match7/15 · 5/1519.1+4.123.2

Unforced Errors / Match7/15 · 5/1529.77.3 fewer37.0

Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/1562.7%+0.9pp63.6%

Serve · 2–3

66.6%1st Serve In+13.5pp53.1%

65.0%1st Serve Won+9.6pp74.6%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp48.1%

1.2Aces / Match+5.56.7

3.7Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

50.8%Return Pts Won+8.2pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

49.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+12.9pp36.8%

55.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+11.6pp67.4%

Points · 1–0

54.7%Total Pts Won+2.7pp52.0%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 7 vs 5

19.1Winners7/15 · 5/15+4.123.2

29.7Unforced Errors7/15 · 5/157.3 fewer37.0

62.7%Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/15+0.9pp63.6%