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Predictions graded

Marta Kostyuk #11Ukraine1Iga Swiatek #8Poland2

Sets 6-3 · 1-6 · 2-6Sat 8 Aug 2026, 16:35 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIga Swiatek · 3 places

Marta Kostyuk

Ukraine

Born 28 June 2002. She reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 11 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #11
Peak ranking: #11 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Iga Swiatek

Poland

Polish right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay and hard as preferred surfaces. She reached world No. 1 on 4 April 2022; the latest profile snapshot lists her at No. 8.

Current ranking: #8
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Kostyuk's recent win over Swiatek and strong overall form (13-2 in last 15) make her a dangerous underdog, but Swiatek's hard-court dominance and return game give her the edge.

The match is expected to be close, with value on over 20.5 total games and Kostyuk +1.5 games. Avoid Swiatek -2.5 games and Kostyuk 2-0 set betting.

Context

Kostyuk won the most recent H2H 7-5, 6-1 at Roland Garros 2026, breaking Swiatek five times.
- Swiatek leads the overall H2H 3-1, including two straight-set wins on hard courts (6-2, 6-2 in 2024; 6-2, 6-1 in 2024).
- The clay win shows Kostyuk can handle Swiatek's game, but hard-court history favors Swiatek.
Kostyuk's hard-court first-serve percentage in the last 15 is 46.2% (54/117) over 2 matches.
- She averages 5.5 double faults per match on hard courts in that span.
- Swiatek wins 58.4% of return points on hard courts in her last 15 (2 matches), and 51.5% overall in the last 15.
- Kostyuk's second-serve points won on hard is only 46%, leaving her vulnerable to Swiatek's pressure.
Swiatek beat Golubic 6-2, 6-1 and Bejlek 6-0, 6-3 in her first two Toronto matches.
- Her hard-court games-won percentage in the last 15 is 80% (24/30) over 2 matches.
- She has won 100% of her hard-court matches in the last 15 (2-0).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Kostyuk's superior recent form (13-2 vs 11-4) and the confidence from beating Swiatek earlier this season give her a slight edge, though Swiatek's hard-court pedigree keeps it close.
- Kostyuk won the most recent H2H on clay 7-5 6-1 in May 2026, showing she can handle Swiatek's game.
- Kostyuk's last 15 overall record is 13-2 (86.7%) with 60.8% games won, while Swiatek is 11-4 (73.3%) with 62.3% games won.
- On hard courts in the last 15, Kostyuk is 2-0 (100%) with 71.4% games won, Swiatek also 2-0 (100%) with 80% games won, but sample size is very small (2 matches each).
- Kostyuk's return points won in last 15 overall is 47.3% vs Swiatek's 51.5%, but Kostyuk's break point conversion is 48.9% vs Swiatek's 51%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarta KostyukEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve effectively, pushing the game total over 9.5.
- Kostyuk's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games (147 games / 15 matches).
- Swiatek's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games (140 games / 15 matches).
- In their last meeting, the first set had 12 games (7-5).
- Both players have high first-serve points won percentages on hard courts (Kostyuk 85.2%, Swiatek 68.7% in small samples), indicating holds of serve.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players in good form and the match expected to be closely contested, the total games are likely to exceed 20.5, as neither player is likely to dominate easily.
- Kostyuk's last 15 matches average 20.7 total games per match (311 games / 15 matches).
- Swiatek's last 15 matches average 19.3 total games per match (289 games / 15 matches).
- Their last meeting had 19 games, but both players are in strong hard-court form with high game win percentages, suggesting a competitive match.
- In Bo3 hard-court matches, both players have shown ability to win games; Kostyuk's hard-court games won % is 71.4%, Swiatek's 80% in small samples.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected closeness of the match, Kostyuk is likely to stay within 1.5 games of Swiatek, making the +1.5 handicap a solid play.
- Kostyuk's last 15 overall games won % is 60.8%, Swiatek's is 62.3%, a narrow margin.
- In their last meeting, Kostyuk won by 7 games (13-6).
- Kostyuk's hard-court games won % in last 15 is 71.4% (small sample), Swiatek's is 80% (small sample), but overall form suggests a close match.
- Kostyuk has covered a +1.5 game handicap in 13 of her last 15 matches (87%).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMarta Kostyuk +1.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostyuk's strong recent trend of winning first sets and her ability to start fast against Swiatek in their last match give her a marginal edge in set 1.
- Kostyuk has won the first set in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%), while Swiatek has won the first set in 10 of her last 15 (66.7%).
- In their May 2026 meeting, Kostyuk took the first set 7-5.
- Kostyuk's first set win conversion rate career is 88%, Swiatek's is 94%, but recent form favors Kostyuk.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarta KostyukEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players meet the 5.5 threshold, and with the hard-court surface aiding serves, over 5.5 aces is a reasonable expectation.
- Kostyuk averages 3.7 aces per match in last 15, Swiatek averages 1.8 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.5.
- On hard courts in last 15, Kostyuk averages 3.0 aces, Swiatek 1.5 aces (small samples).
- Kostyuk's ace rate is higher on faster surfaces; hard courts should favor her serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostyuk's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, combined with Swiatek's moderate rate, makes over 7.5 double faults likely.
- Kostyuk averages 4.2 double faults per match in last 15, Swiatek averages 3.5.
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.7.
- On hard courts in last 15, Kostyuk averages 5.5 double faults, Swiatek 1.0 (small samples, but Kostyuk's high rate is notable).
- Kostyuk's first serve percentage is low (55.3% overall), leading to more second serves and double fault risk.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Swiatek's recent hard-court dominance is based on a tiny sample, and Kostyuk's form suggests she can keep it close.

Prediction history

Marta Kostyuk has been highly reliable when projected to win

Marta Kostyuk has fulfilled 13 of her last 15 win predictions. Her fulfilled predictions exceeded the expected 10.5 based on average estimated probability of 70.1%. The two missed predictions occurred at lower probabilities of 55% and 58%, while her matched predictions averaged a higher 72.2%.

Recent evidence for Marta Kostyuk15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#13Marta Kostyuk0-2#12Linda Noskova

BetBugsMarta Kostyuk to win·58%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#13Marta Kostyuk0-2#12Linda Noskova

Marta Kostyuk to win

58%probability

Linda Noskova won

Missed

8 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#13Marta Kostyuk2-0#17Jasmine Paolini

BetBugsMarta Kostyuk to win·58%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#13Marta Kostyuk2-0#17Jasmine Paolini

Marta Kostyuk to win

58%probability

Marta Kostyuk won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#102Ashlyn Krueger0-2#13Marta Kostyuk

BetBugsMarta Kostyuk to win·62%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#102Ashlyn Krueger0-2#13Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk to win

62%probability

Marta Kostyuk won

Matched

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#114Anna Blinkova1-2#13Marta Kostyuk

BetBugsMarta Kostyuk to win·78%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#114Anna Blinkova1-2#13Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk to win

78%probability

Marta Kostyuk won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#594Nadia Podoroska0-2#13Marta Kostyuk

BetBugsMarta Kostyuk to win·85%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#594Nadia Podoroska0-2#13Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk to win

85%probability

Marta Kostyuk won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-3 (4 meetings)

W7-5 6-1Marta Kostyuk#11vIga Swiatek#8May 31, 2026

L6-2 6-2Marta Kostyuk#11vIga Swiatek#8Aug 16, 2024

L6-2 6-1Marta Kostyuk#11vIga Swiatek#8Mar 15, 2024

L6-3 6-4Marta Kostyuk#11vIga Swiatek#8Jun 7, 2021

Iga Swiatek dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Marta Kostyuk

13W 2L

6-3 6-1#23Madison Keys

7-6(4) 6-0#229Katherine Sebov

6-4 6-4#7Linda Noskova

6-3 6-2#15Jasmine Paolini

6-4 6-4#58Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 4-6 6-1#28Emma Navarro

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#108Anna Blinkova

6-1 6-2#514Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-3#5Mirra Andreeva

6-3 2-6 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

7-5 6-1#8Iga Swiatek

6-4 6-3#51Viktorija Golubic

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3#91Katie Volynets

6-2 6-3#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-3 7-5#5Mirra Andreeva

Iga Swiatek

11W 4L

6-2 6-1#51Viktorija Golubic

6-0 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

7-6(9) 6-2#20Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-3#66Karolina Pliskova

6-1 2-6 6-3#110Taylor Townsend

7-5 2-6 6-3#28Emma Navarro

7-5 6-1#11Marta Kostyuk

6-4 6-4#68Magda Linette

6-2 6-3#38Sara Bejlek

6-1 6-2#134Emerson Jones

6-4 2-6 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-1 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

6-2 6-1#13Naomi Osaka

6-1 6-0#59Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-1 6-7(5) 6-3#70Caty McNally

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMarta KostyukKostyuk

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Iga SwiatekSwiatekIS

Iga Swiatek carries the stronger recent form — Marta Kostyuk's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.3%+11.0pp66.3%

1st Serve Won72.4%+5.9pp66.5%

2nd Serve Won48.8%—49.2%

Aces / Match3.7+1.91.8

Double Faults / Match4.20.7 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won47.3%+4.2pp51.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.9%+2.1pp51.0%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+13.3pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won54.7%+1.2pp55.9%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 12 vs 7

Winners / Match12/15 · 7/1528.9+9.819.1

Unforced Errors / Match12/15 · 7/1530.50.8 fewer29.7

Net Pts Won12/15 · 7/1564.5%+1.8pp62.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.3%1st Serve In+11.0pp66.3%

72.4%1st Serve Won+5.9pp66.5%

48.8%2nd Serve Won—49.2%

3.7Aces / Match+1.91.8

4.2Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

47.3%Return Pts Won+4.2pp51.5%

Pressure · 1–1

48.9%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp51.0%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp50.0%

Points · 0–1

54.7%Total Pts Won+1.2pp55.9%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 12 vs 7

28.9Winners12/15 · 7/15+9.819.1

30.5Unforced Errors12/15 · 7/150.8 fewer29.7

64.5%Net Pts Won12/15 · 7/15+1.8pp62.7%

Marta Kostyuk #11Ukraine1Iga Swiatek #8Poland2

Player Profiles

Marta Kostyuk

Iga Swiatek

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Marta Kostyuk +2.5

Marta Kostyuk

Iga Swiatek 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marta Kostyuk 2-0 @ 3.50

Marta Kostyuk has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Marta Kostyuk

Iga Swiatek

Stat Battle