Cori Gauff #4United States11 – 2Elena Rybakina #2Kazakhstan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Both players' recent matches average well above 21.5 games, and Rybakina's hard-court matches in this window have all been three-setters, making a longer match likely.

• Gauff last15 overall: average 23.6 games per match (354 games/15 matches).
• Rybakina last15 overall: average 24.3 games per match (364 games/15 matches).
• Rybakina last15 on hard: 4 matches, all went to three sets, average 28.5 games per match.
• H2H (2022 hard): 3-set match with 30 games total.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Gauff's superior games-won percentage and fresher condition suggest she will cover a +1.5 game handicap, meaning she either wins or loses by a very narrow margin.

• Gauff last15 on hard: won all matches, average margin +4.3 games (37-16 games).
• Rybakina last15 on hard: won all matches, but margins were tight (63-51 games, avg +3.0).
• Gauff overall last15: 57.9% games won; Rybakina 55.2%.
• Intel: Gauff's freshness and Rybakina's fatigue could widen the gap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Rybakina's recent first sets on hard have consistently reached 10+ games, and Gauff's sets against quality opponents also trend longer, supporting over 9.5 games in set 1.

• Gauff last15 on hard: set scores 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 7-5, 6-4, 6-1 (avg 9.3 games, but 4/6 sets had 10+ games).
• Rybakina last15 on hard: set scores include 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2, 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 (avg 10.1 games).
• Rybakina's last three first sets: 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 (all 10+ games).
• H2H first set: 6-4 (10 games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Gauff's perfect set record on hard in the last15 and high first-set conversion rate, combined with Rybakina's recent pattern of dropping first sets, support Gauff taking the opener.

• Gauff last15 on hard: 100% sets won (6/6), 69.8% games won, 70.1% first-serve points won.
• Rybakina last15 on hard: 72.7% sets won (8/11), 55.3% games won, 73.4% first-serve points won.
• Gauff career first-set win conversion: 92%; Rybakina: 90%.
• Intel: Gauff's lighter workload may allow a sharper start; Rybakina's recent matches show slow starts (lost first set vs Osaka, Samsonova).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rybakina's hard-court matches in this window have all gone the distance, and against a top opponent like Gauff, a deciding set is probable.

• Rybakina last15 on hard: 4/4 matches went to three sets.
• Gauff last15 on hard: 3/3 matches were straight sets, but opponents were lower-ranked (Korneeva, Sakkari, Day).
• H2H: only meeting went to three sets.
• Intel: Rybakina's resilience in three-setters (won last three from behind) and Gauff's fresh legs could extend the match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Rybakina's elite ace rate on hard courts (10.8 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Gauff adds a few, making over 10.5 aces likely even in a two-set match.

• Rybakina last15 on hard: 10.8 aces per match (43 aces in 4 matches).
• Gauff last15 on hard: 4.0 aces per match (12 aces in 3 matches).
• Combined average: 14.8 aces per match on hard in recent window.
• Rybakina overall last15: 6.8 aces per match; Gauff 3.8, combined 10.6, but hard-court numbers are higher.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double-fault rates on hard courts in the recent window, and with Rybakina's aggressive serving and Gauff's occasional yips, over 9.5 double faults is plausible.

• Gauff last15 on hard: 5.3 double faults per match (16 in 3 matches).
• Rybakina last15 on hard: 7.3 double faults per match (29 in 4 matches).
• Combined average: 12.6 double faults per match on hard.
• Gauff overall last15: 4.9 DF/match; Rybakina 4.5, but hard-court numbers are elevated.