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Predictions graded

Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia0Rafael Jodar #15Spain2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Sun 9 Aug 2026, 00:10 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJiri Lehecka · 3 places

Jiri Lehecka

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 12 in May 2026 after his first Masters 1000 final in Miami. ATP lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #12
Peak ranking: #12 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Rafael Jodar

Spain

The 19-year-old reached a new career-high No. 15 following his August 2026 Washington final. He plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #15
Peak ranking: #15 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Rafael Jodar's elite hard-court form (6-1 in last 15) and strong return metrics give him a clear edge over Jiri Lehecka, who has played sparingly on the surface.

The best betting value lies in over 22.5 total games, while Jodar to win 2-1 at 4.00 offers a high-upside angle given his deciding-set prowess.

Context

Jodar reached the Washington final on 3 August 2026, losing to Taylor Fritz in straight sets.
- The Montreal match is scheduled for 8 August, leaving a five-day gap between events.
- Jodar played six matches in Washington, including three three-setters, increasing cumulative fatigue risk.
Jodar's last-15 hard-court record is 6-1 (85.7%), with wins over top-30 opponents like Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo.
- Lehecka's last-15 hard-court record is 2-1 (66.7%), with only three matches played on the surface.
- Jodar's hard-court games-won percentage (57.3%) and return points won (39.5%) both exceed Lehecka's (58.7% and 38.6%), but Jodar's larger sample makes his form more reliable.
Jodar's last-15 overall return points won: 40.8% vs Lehecka's 33.5%.
- Jodar's break point conversion rate: 44.6% vs Lehecka's 35.2%.
- Lehecka's first-serve points won is strong at 78.1%, but Jodar's return pressure may force more break opportunities.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Jodar's superior recent form on hard courts (6-1) and stronger return metrics give him a clear edge over Lehecka, who has played only 3 hard-court matches in the last 15.
- Jodar last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Lehecka 9-6 (60%)
- Jodar last15 Hard record 6-1 (85.7%), Lehecka 2-1 (66.7%)
- Jodar return points won 40.8% vs Lehecka 33.5% in last15 overall
- Jodar break point conversion 44.6% vs Lehecka 35.2% in last15 overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing solid serving and return stats, and Jodar's matches tending to be longer, a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games is likely.
- Lehecka last15 Hard average games per match 21.0, Jodar 23.4
- Both players have high hold/break dynamics; Jodar break points saved 63.1%, Lehecka 72.2%
- Jodar last15 overall average match duration 148 min, Lehecka 124 min
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Strong serving on both sides and Jodar's tendency for tight opening sets make a first set with at least 10 games probable.
- Lehecka last15 Hard first-set average games 9.7, Jodar 10.3
- Jodar last15 Hard tiebreak in 2 of 7 matches; Lehecka 0 of 3
- Both players have first-serve points won above 70% on hard courts
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's consistent winning margins on hard courts suggest he can cover a -1.5 game handicap, though Lehecka's competitiveness keeps it close.
- Jodar last15 Hard games won 57.3%, Lehecka 58.7%
- Jodar last15 overall games won 56.1%, Lehecka 53.2%
- Jodar won 6 of last 7 hard-court matches, often by multiple games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRafael Jodar -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Jodar's elite career first-set conversion rate and strong recent hard-court set performance suggest he is likely to start quickly against Lehecka.
- Jodar first-set win conversion career 94%, Lehecka 85%
- Jodar last15 Hard sets won 70.6%, Lehecka 71.4% (small sample)
- Jodar won first set in 5 of last 7 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's resilience and high deciding-set win rate, combined with Lehecka's competitive recent form, increase the chance of a three-setter.
- Jodar last15 Hard 3-set matches: 3 of 7 (42.9%)
- Lehecka last15 overall 3-set matches: 5 of 15 (33.3%)
- Jodar deciding set win rate 77% career, Lehecka 56%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lehecka's ace rate is significantly higher than Jodar's, and combined they average over 12 aces per match in recent hard-court data.
- Lehecka last15 Hard aces per match 6.3, Jodar 3.4
- Lehecka last15 overall aces per match 10.3, Jodar 5.2
- Lehecka career aces 2490 in 450 matches (5.5 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's higher double-fault rate pushes the combined total above 5.5, though Lehecka's low rate keeps confidence moderate.
- Jodar last15 Hard double faults per match 3.7, Lehecka 2.0
- Jodar last15 overall double faults per match 4.1, Lehecka 2.0
- Combined average 5.7 double faults per match on hard courts
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and close set dynamics, especially in Jodar's matches, make a tiebreak likely in this encounter.
- Jodar last15 Hard tiebreak in 2 of 7 matches (28.6%)
- Lehecka career tiebreak win rate 52%, Jodar 53%
- Both players have first-serve points won above 70% on hard courts
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Rafael Jodar has been highly reliable when projected to win

Rafael Jodar has fulfilled 14 of 15 match-winner predictions, a 93% success rate. The average estimated probability in these matches was 69.2%, with an expected 10.4 wins, indicating he has consistently outperformed expectations. The only miss came against Shintaro Mochizuki at Wimbledon, where Jodar lost despite a 65% probability.

Recent evidence for Rafael Jodar15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-1#15Lorenzo Musetti

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·58%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-1#15Lorenzo Musetti

Rafael Jodar to win

58%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

30 Jul·ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-0#721Kei Nishikori

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·72%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#24Rafael Jodar2-0#721Kei Nishikori

Rafael Jodar to win

72%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar1-3#151Shintaro Mochizuki

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·65%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar1-3#151Shintaro Mochizuki

Rafael Jodar to win

65%probability

Shintaro Mochizuki won

Missed

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-2#71Pablo Carreno-Busta

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-2#71Pablo Carreno-Busta

Rafael Jodar to win

65%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-0#220Felix Gill

BetBugsRafael Jodar to win·78%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#26Rafael Jodar3-0#220Felix Gill

Rafael Jodar to win

78%probability

Rafael Jodar won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jiri Lehecka

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#32Alexander Blockx

6-4 6-2#71Vit Kopriva

1-6 6-3 6-4#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 7-5 3-6 7-6(6)#3Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-4 4-6 6-4#45Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 6-2 6-4#75Alex Molcan

6-4 6-2 6-4#139Alexei Popyrin

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#93Rinky Hijikata

7-5 7-6(4)#67Kamil Majchrzak

6-7(4) 7-6(14) 7-6(6)#10Ben Shelton

6-4 7-6(4)#20Frances Tiafoe

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#86James Duckworth

6-3 7-6(3) 6-3#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-3 6-4#14Casper Ruud

7-6(4) 6-3#41Jan-Lennard Struff

Rafael Jodar

12W 3L

6-4 6-3#13Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-1 6-3#59Corentin Moutet

7-6(2) 6-4#9Taylor Fritz

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#26Alejandro Tabilo

1-6 6-1 6-4#13Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-2#467Kei Nishikori

7-6(5) 6-3#24Arthur Fils

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#117Shintaro Mochizuki

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-3 6-3 7-5#218Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-1 6-3#3Alexander Zverev

4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3 6-3#42Alex Michelsen

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#86James Duckworth

6-1 6-0 6-4#95Aleksandar Kovacevic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JLJiri LeheckaLehecka

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Rafael JodarJodarRJ

Jiri Lehecka carries the stronger recent form — Rafael Jodar's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.3%+1.3pp62.0%

1st Serve Won78.1%+7.3pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won54.6%—54.3%

Aces / Match10.3+5.15.2

Double Faults / Match2.02.1 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.5%+7.3pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.2%+9.4pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved72.2%+9.1pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.2%+1.4pp52.6%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 8

Winners / Match5/15 · 8/1537.8+4.742.5

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 8/1532.07.6 fewer39.6

Net Pts Won5/15 · 8/1568.6%+4.0pp64.6%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

63.3%1st Serve In+1.3pp62.0%

78.1%1st Serve Won+7.3pp70.8%

54.6%2nd Serve Won—54.3%

10.3Aces / Match+5.15.2

2.0Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer4.1

Return · 0–1

33.5%Return Pts Won+7.3pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

35.2%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp44.6%

72.2%Break Pts Saved+9.1pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

51.2%Total Pts Won+1.4pp52.6%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 8

37.8Winners5/15 · 8/15+4.742.5

32.0Unforced Errors5/15 · 8/157.6 fewer39.6

68.6%Net Pts Won5/15 · 8/15+4.0pp64.6%

Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia0Rafael Jodar #15Spain2

Player Profiles

Jiri Lehecka

Rafael Jodar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Rafael Jodar has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jiri Lehecka

Rafael Jodar

Stat Battle