PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Andrea Guerrieri #213Italy2Daniil Glinka #166Estonia1

Sets 0-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Sat 8 Aug 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Glinka · 47 places

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

Age 26, left-handed with a one-handed backhand and 188 cm tall. The supplied profile and current public record list him at No. 166, also his verified career high; his career activity is concentrated on hard and indoor courts.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #166
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 22:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrea Guerrieri's superior hard-court return game and perfect recent record on the surface give him a slight edge over Daniil Glinka's serve-reliant style.

The match is likely to be tight, with a high chance of three sets and over 21.5 total games. The best betting value is on over 2.5 sets, where the model sees a 7.4-point edge.

Context

Guerrieri is 3-0 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, winning 60% of games and 75% of sets.
- He has won 44.2% of return points on hard courts, well above Glinka's 34.9% in the same window.
- All three wins came this week at the same tournament, including a comeback from a set down in his last match.
Glinka has played three sets in 4 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
- His hard-court matches in this window average 27.1 games, with an average duration of over two hours.
- He has a 71.4% win rate on hard courts in this sample, but often needs a deciding set to close out wins.
Glinka averages 10 aces per hard-court match, but Guerrieri wins 44.2% of return points on the surface.
- Guerrieri has converted 41.9% of break points on hard courts in his last three matches.
- Glinka's second serve is vulnerable, winning only 51.4% of points behind it on hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Guerrieri's superior hard-court form and return game in the recent window give him a clear edge, supported by his excellent career first-set conversion.
- Guerrieri is 3-0 on hard courts in the last 15 matches, winning 60% of games and 75% of sets.
- Guerrieri's hard-court return points won (44.2%) significantly exceeds Glinka's (34.9%) in the same window.
- Guerrieri has a 91% career first-set win conversion rate, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have been lengthy, with frequent three-setters pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Guerrieri's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 25 games per match.
- Glinka's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 27.1 games per match.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches on hard courts recently (Guerrieri 2/3, Glinka 4/7).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve effectively, leading to over 9.5 games.
- Guerrieri's last 3 hard-court first sets: 10, 10, 7 games.
- Glinka's last 7 hard-court first sets: average 10.1 games.
- Both players have strong first-set serve numbers on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be competitive, with a high likelihood of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Guerrieri's last 3 hard-court second sets: 10, 10, 7 games.
- Glinka's last 7 hard-court second sets: average 10.3 games.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often extending them.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Guerrieri's strong start on hard courts and overall first-set record make him the likely winner of the opening set.
- Guerrieri has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches overall.
- On hard courts in the last 15, Guerrieri won all 3 first sets.
- Glinka's first-set win rate on hard courts in the last 15 is 57% (4/7).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches on hard courts for both players suggests this match is likely to go the distance.
- Guerrieri's last 3 hard-court matches: 2 three-setters.
- Glinka's last 7 hard-court matches: 4 three-setters.
- Combined, 6 of their last 10 hard-court matches went over 2.5 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Glinka's high ace count on hard courts, combined with Guerrieri's solid serving, makes over 9.5 aces likely.
- Glinka averages 10 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15.
- Guerrieri averages 5.3 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15.
- Combined, they average 15.3 aces per hard-court match in the recent window.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Andrea Guerrieri has been highly reliable when projected to win

Andrea Guerrieri has fulfilled 6 of 9 win predictions (67%). The average estimated probability in those matches was 61.8%, with an expected 5.6 wins, indicating slight overperformance. All three missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins in those matches.

Recent evidence for Andrea Guerrieri9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jul·ATP Umag

#227Andrea Guerrieri0-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·55%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#227Andrea Guerrieri0-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

Andrea Guerrieri to win

55%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

Missed

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#227Andrea Guerrieri2-0#319Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·58%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#227Andrea Guerrieri2-0#319Oriol Roca Batalla

Andrea Guerrieri to win

58%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#230Andrea Guerrieri2-1#242David Goffin

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#230Andrea Guerrieri2-1#242David Goffin

Andrea Guerrieri to win

62%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

12 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-0#231Andrea Guerrieri

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·62%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#396Francesco Forti2-0#231Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri to win

62%probability

Francesco Forti won

Missed

10 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#651Alexander Vasilev0-2#231Andrea Guerrieri

BetBugsAndrea Guerrieri to win·78%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#651Alexander Vasilev0-2#231Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri to win

78%probability

Andrea Guerrieri won

Matched

Previous match context available

Andrea Guerrieri

9W 6L

4-6 7-5 6-2#265Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#475Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#407Olle Wallin

6-4 6-4#174Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 7-6(5)#164Luca Nardi

6-1 6-2#141Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-4#342Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(9) 6-4#121Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 7-5 6-2#292David Goffin

6-1 6-4#287Charles Broom

6-2 6-2#303Filippo Romano

7-6(7) 6-4#357Francesco Forti

7-6(5) 7-5#567Alexander Vasilev

6-3 3-6 6-4#111Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 7-5#171Max Alcala Gurri

Daniil Glinka

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-4#551Alexander Donski

7-5 1-6 6-4#679Amit Vales

6-4 3-6 6-1#514Fares Zakaria

6-1 1-6 6-3#304Philip Sekulic

7-6(2) 6-3#381Garrett Johns

6-4 6-4#118Bu Yunchaokete

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#348Edward Winter

7-6(1) 2-6 7-6(5)#625Aidan Mayo

6-4 6-3#215Kimmer Coppejans

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#225Oliver Crawford

7-6(3) 6-4#284Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 4-6 6-3#199Liam Broady

6-3 6-3—Stefan Latinovic

6-3 6-4#151Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-4#368Robin Bertrand

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AGAndrea GuerrieriGuerrieri

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil GlinkaGlinkaDG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.7%+5.9pp58.8%

1st Serve Won66.9%+5.5pp72.4%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+4.4pp50.7%

Aces / Match2.2+5.37.5

Double Faults / Match3.5—3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.1%+7.8pp35.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.3%+6.7pp32.6%

Break Pts Saved59.3%+5.8pp65.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+1.6pp49.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

64.7%1st Serve In+5.9pp58.8%

66.9%1st Serve Won+5.5pp72.4%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp50.7%

2.2Aces / Match+5.37.5

3.5Double Faults / Match—3.5

Return · 1–0

43.1%Return Pts Won+7.8pp35.3%

Pressure · 1–1

39.3%Break Pts Converted+6.7pp32.6%

59.3%Break Pts Saved+5.8pp65.1%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.4%

Andrea Guerrieri

Daniil Glinka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri

Over 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Andrea Guerrieri

Daniil Glinka

Stat Battle