ATP UmagFinished

Predictions graded

Andrea Guerrieri #227Italy0Federico Agustin Gomez #212Argentina2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:08 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Agustin Gomez · 15 places

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Italian left-hander born 3 December 1998. He reached a career-high No. 227 on 29 June 2026 and won his first Challenger singles title at the Garden Open in Rome in April 2026.

Current ranking: #227
Peak ranking: #227 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

Argentine right-hander born 26 November 1996 and a former Louisville college player. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 133 on 3 February 2025, and ATP's August 2025 bio says he restarted his pro career in 2021 after coaching in Miami.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #133 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jul 2026, 06:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Guerrieri's strong clay form and recent upset of Nardi give him a slight edge, but Gomez's resilience and heavy serve keep it close.

Best bets: over 21.5 total games, Guerrieri +1.5 games, and over 9.5 games in set 1, all offering value in what should be a tight qualifying final.

Context

Gomez beat Brancaccio 5-7 6-2 6-4 in 1 hour 56 minutes on 12 July.
- Guerrieri beat Nardi 6-3 7-6(5) in 1 hour 53 minutes, a more efficient win.
- Both players are back on court the same day, but Gomez spent more energy coming from a set down.
Guerrieri is 29-9 on clay in 2026 (76% win rate).
- Gomez is 6-9 on clay in 2026 (40% win rate).
- Guerrieri beat world No. 166 Nardi in straight sets in Q1.
- Gomez's only clay win in his last seven matches was a three-setter against Brancaccio.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Guerrieri's superior clay-court record this season and recent upset over Nardi give him a slight edge, while Gomez's poor clay form and heavier same-day physical load tilt the match in Guerrieri's favor.
- Guerrieri is 29-9 on clay in 2026 (76% win rate) vs Gomez 6-9 (40%)
- Guerrieri beat top seed Nardi 6-3 7-6(5) in Q1, showing strong current clay form
- Guerrieri has a 91% first-set win conversion rate, indicating he closes matches well when ahead
- Gomez lost 6 of last 7 matches on clay, with only one win over Brancaccio in three sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players show a pattern of competitive starts, often reaching 10 or more games, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Guerrieri's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5
- Gomez's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5
- Both players have been involved in tight opening sets recently, including tiebreaks
- Clay courts reduce the likelihood of quick, one-sided sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both players' recent matches have frequently exceeded 21.5 games, and their solid break-point saving on a slow clay surface suggests a competitive, extended match.
- Guerrieri's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5
- Gomez's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Guerrieri 56.5%, Gomez 61.6%), extending games
- Clay-court matches tend to have longer rallies and more games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Guerrieri's recent performances and the expected closeness of the match make him likely to stay within 1.5 games of Gomez, if not win outright.
- Guerrieri has covered a +1.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches
- Gomez has failed to cover a -1.5 handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches
- The match is expected to be close, with Guerrieri likely to win or lose by a narrow margin
- Guerrieri's strong clay form and recent upset win support a tight contest
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrea Guerrieri +1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players likely to battle in a tight match, the second set is expected to be competitive and surpass 9.5 games, as seen in their recent matches.
- Guerrieri's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5
- Gomez's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, often forcing extended games
- The match is expected to be close, reducing the chance of a lopsided second set
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Guerrieri's strong recent trend of winning first sets, combined with Gomez's slow starts and lower first-serve percentage, makes Guerrieri likely to take the opening set.
- Guerrieri won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including vs Nardi (6-3)
- Gomez lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, often struggling early
- Guerrieri's first-set win conversion is 91%, showing he starts matches strongly
- Gomez's first-serve percentage is only 59%, which can be exploited early on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Gomez's recent pattern of three-set matches and the competitive nature of both players' games suggest a high likelihood of a deciding set.
- Gomez has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, showing a tendency for deciders
- Guerrieri has a 57% deciding-set win rate, but his matches often go the distance
- Both players have similar break-point conversion rates (~42-46%), leading to tight sets
- Clay-court matches at this level frequently go to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have similar double-fault rates that consistently push combined totals over 5.5, making this a reliable over bet.
- Guerrieri has a 5.4% double-fault rate, averaging 3-4 per match
- Gomez has a 5.6% double-fault rate, also averaging 3-4 per match
- Combined, they typically produce 6-8 double faults per match
- Clay-court pressure and longer rallies can increase double faults
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match, with both players frequently involved in tiebreaks recently, suggests at least one set will go to a tiebreak.
- Guerrieri has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches
- Gomez has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 46-51%, indicating close sets
- Clay-court matches often feature tiebreaks when players are evenly matched
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gomez's higher ace rate and serving power make it plausible for the match total to exceed 5.5 aces, though Guerrieri's low ace count keeps confidence low.
- Gomez has a 7.2% ace rate, averaging about 4-5 aces per match in recent outings
- Guerrieri has a low 1.9% ace rate, but clay can still produce aces from Gomez's serve
- Combined, they could reach 6+ aces if Gomez serves well
- Gomez's height (191 cm) gives him an advantage in generating aces on clay
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(5)#166Luca Nardi

6-1 6-2#162Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-4#319Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(9) 6-4#139Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 7-5 6-2#241David Goffin

6-1 6-4#285Charles Broom

6-2 6-2#312Filippo Romano

7-6(7) 6-4#378Francesco Forti

7-6(5) 7-5#592Alexander Vasilev

6-3 3-6 6-4#112Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 7-5#228Max Alcala Gurri

7-6(3) 7-5#380Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-1 6-4#371Gabriele Piraino

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#428Oleg Prihodko

7-6(2) 6-2#371Gabriele Piraino

Federico Agustin Gomez

5W 10L

5-7 6-2 6-4#248Raul Brancaccio

6-3 6-7(10) 6-3#458Henry Bernet

6-4 4-6 6-4#359Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-1#141Gustavo Heide

6-3 6-4#189Clement Tabur

6-3 7-5#148Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(3) 6-2#112Dalibor Svrcina

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-2 6-2#476Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#839Skander Mansouri

6-0 2-0 ret.#275Stefan Dostanic

6-2 6-1#192Michael Mmoh

6-3 1-1 ret.#224Darwin Blanch

1-6 6-1 6-4#32Tomas Martin Etcheverry

0-6 7-6(4) 6-2#189Clement Tabur

Andrea Guerrieri

Federico Agustin Gomez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Andrea Guerrieri +1.5

Over 5.5

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Andrea Guerrieri

Federico Agustin Gomez