Andrea Guerrieri #230Italy22 – 1David Goffin #242Belgium1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Guerrieri's strong recent form and Goffin's poor results give the Italian a clear edge, despite Goffin's superior career grass experience.

• Guerrieri is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, with a Challenger title in April 2026.
• Goffin is 2-8 in his last 10 matches, with losses to players ranked outside the top 100.
• Guerrieri's career grass record is 3-2, while Goffin's is 44-30 but he is 0-1 on grass in 2025 and has not played on grass in 2026.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Even if Goffin loses, his ability to keep sets close should allow him to stay within 3.5 games of Guerrieri.

• Goffin has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 7 of his last 10 matches.
• Guerrieri's average margin of victory in his last 5 wins is 4.4 games, but against stronger opposition it could be tighter.
• Goffin's serve stats (71.7% first-serve points won) suggest he can hold serve effectively on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The match is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve on grass, leading to a higher total games count.

• Guerrieri's last 5 matches have averaged 21.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Goffin's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to push sets deep, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double-fault rates, which should push the total comfortably over 5.5.

• Guerrieri has a high double-fault rate of 5.4 per match.
• Goffin averages 4.4 double faults per match.
• Combined, they average nearly 10 double faults per match, making over 5.5 likely in a best-of-3.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Goffin's superior ace rate should drive the total aces over 8.5, even if Guerrieri contributes few.

• Goffin averages 6.8 aces per match over his career.
• Guerrieri averages 1.9 aces per match, but grass can amplify ace counts.
• In a best-of-3 match, a combined total of 9 aces is plausible given Goffin's serving ability.