CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Alexei Popyrin #139Australia0Thiago Agustin Tirante #65Argentina2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Sat 8 Aug 2026, 00:25 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Agustin Tirante · 74 places

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 19 on 4 August 2025. Public search results did not provide a reliable current source for a preferred-surface designation or an active injury issue.

Current ranking: #139
Peak ranking: #19 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

Reached a career-high No. 52 on June 8, 2026. World Tennis lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #65
Peak ranking: #52 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 09:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Agustin Tirante's superior recent form (10-5 overall, 2-0 on hard courts with a win over Taylor Fritz) and stronger return game (36.1% return points won) make him a value pick to beat Alexei Popyrin, despite Popyrin's higher ranking and hard-court experience.

Betting angles favor Tirante to win, over 22.5 total games, and over 9.5 games in set one, while avoiding the over 23.5 total games line.

Context

Tirante's last-15 overall record is 10-5 (66.7%), including a 7-5 6-3 win over Fritz in the previous round.
- He has won 4 of his last 5 matches, with the only loss coming on grass against Fabian Marozsan.
- His return points won over the last 15 matches is 36.1%, well above Popyrin's 33.1%.
Popyrin's hard-court wins in the last 15: Collignon (rank 38), Burruchaga (56), and a retirement win over Kokkinakis (434).
- His only hard-court loss in this window was to Andres Andrade (rank 251).
- Tirante's two hard-court wins include a straight-set victory over Fritz (rank 9).
Tirante's first-serve percentage on hard courts in the last 15 matches is 48.1% (62/129).
- His second-serve points won is a solid 59.7%, but a low first-serve rate puts constant pressure on his service games.
- Popyrin's return points won on hard courts is 36.2%, so he can punish short second serves.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Tirante's stronger recent overall form and superior return game give him an edge, despite Popyrin's decent hard-court results against weaker opposition.
- Tirante's last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Popyrin's 7-8 (46.7%).
- Tirante's last15 hard-court record: 2-0 (100%), small sample but includes a win over Taylor Fritz (rank 9).
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court record: 3-1 (75%), but wins came against lower-ranked opponents (Collignon 38, Burruchaga 56, Kokkinakis 434 ret.).
- Tirante's last15 return points won: 36.1% vs Popyrin's 33.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Agustin TiranteEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Solid serving and competitive starts in recent hard-court matches point to a first set with at least 10 games.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court set1 average: 10.25 games (41 games in 4 sets).
- Tirante's last15 hard-court set1 average: 10.5 games (21 games in 2 sets).
- Both players have strong first-serve numbers on hard courts, reducing early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court matches for both players have been relatively tight, suggesting a match total exceeding 22.5 games.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court matches averaged 23.25 games per match (93 games in 4 matches).
- Tirante's last15 hard-court matches averaged 25 games per match (50 games in 2 matches).
- Both players have shown competitive sets in recent matches, with Popyrin's last three hard-court wins all going over 20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent hard-court matches have been closely contested, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court set2 average: 10.25 games.
- Tirante's last15 hard-court set2 average: 10.5 games.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, with Popyrin winning 3 of 4 hard-court second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tirante's slight edge in games won percentage and recent quality wins support a narrow handicap cover.
- Tirante's last15 overall games won: 52.5% vs Popyrin's 47.4%.
- Tirante's last15 hard-court games won: 54% vs Popyrin's 52.7%.
- Tirante's recent wins include a straight-set victory over Taylor Fritz, indicating strong form.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonThiago Agustin Tirante -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Tirante's recent momentum and strong serving on hard courts make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Tirante's last15 first-set win rate: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Popyrin's 7-8 (46.7%).
- Tirante's last15 hard-court first serve points won: 85.5% (small sample) vs Popyrin's 74.7%.
- Popyrin's career first-set win conversion: 82%, but recent form suggests vulnerability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Agustin TiranteEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched on recent hard-court form, a three-set match is a coin-flip possibility.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court matches: 2 three-setters in 4 matches (50%).
- Tirante's last15 hard-court matches: 1 three-setter in 2 matches (50%).
- Both players have similar deciding-set win rates (Popyrin 53% career, Tirante 49% career).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, and their combined ace counts consistently exceed 15.5.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court aces per match: 10.0.
- Tirante's last15 hard-court aces per match: 7.0.
- Combined average aces per match on hard courts: 17.0, with Popyrin's height (196cm) aiding his serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their recent hard-court double fault averages sum to over 6.5, making this a reasonable over bet.
- Popyrin's last15 hard-court double faults per match: 3.5.
- Tirante's last15 hard-court double faults per match: 4.0.
- Combined average double faults on hard courts: 7.5, with both players showing moderate DF rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Thiago Agustin Tirante has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 7 matches where Tirante was predicted to win, he fulfilled the prediction 5 times. His average estimated probability was 63.4%, with an expected 4.4 wins, indicating he slightly outperformed expectations. Both losses came against opponents with similar probability estimates, showing no clear pattern in the missed predictions.

Recent evidence for Thiago Agustin Tirante7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 Jul·ATP Bastad

#135Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#61Thiago Agustin Tirante

BetBugsThiago Agustin Tirante to win·62%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#135Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#61Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante to win

62%probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#125Sebastian Ofner0-2#61Thiago Agustin Tirante

BetBugsThiago Agustin Tirante to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#125Sebastian Ofner0-2#61Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante to win

62%probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

#142Toby Samuel2-0#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

BetBugsThiago Agustin Tirante to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

#142Toby Samuel2-0#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante to win

65%probability

Toby Samuel won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#124Pablo Llamas Ruiz1-3#58Thiago Agustin Tirante

BetBugsThiago Agustin Tirante to win·62%

Matched

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#124Pablo Llamas Ruiz1-3#58Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante to win

62%probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante won

Matched

18 May·ATP Geneva

#24Arthur Rinderknech2-0#69Thiago Agustin Tirante

BetBugsThiago Agustin Tirante to win·62%

Missed

18 May 2026

ATP Geneva

#24Arthur Rinderknech2-0#69Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante to win

62%probability

Arthur Rinderknech won

Missed

Previous match context available

Alexei Popyrin

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#38Raphael Collignon 4-6 7-5 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-4 2-3 ret.#434Thanasi Kokkinakis

7-5 3-6 6-1#251Andres Andrade

6-4 6-2 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

1-6 6-2 6-2#77Jan Choinski

6-4 6-2#38Raphael Collignon

3-6 6-3 7-6(3) 7-5#87Zachary Svajda

6-4 6-3#14Casper Ruud

6-4 6-4#9Taylor Fritz

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-2 6-0#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 2-6 6-4#17Jakub Mensik

6-2 6-3#40Matteo Berrettini

7-6(7) 6-4#100Martin Damm

Thiago Agustin Tirante

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#9Taylor Fritz 6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#606Duncan Chan

7-5 3-6 6-4#130Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#126Sebastian Ofner

7-5 6-3 6-4#61Fabian Marozsan

6-1 7-6(7)#109Toby Samuel

7-5 6-2#334Hamish Stewart

7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4#68Pablo Carreno-Busta

4-6 7-6(4) 6-1 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-0#127Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-1#29Arthur Rinderknech

6-3 6-2#6Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-4#8Flavio Cobolli

6-3 7-5#37Cameron Norrie

6-7(5) 6-4 6-0#192Gianluca Cadenasso

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlexei PopyrinPopyrin

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Thiago Agustin TiranteTiranteTT

Thiago Agustin Tirante carries the stronger recent form — Alexei Popyrin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.8%+3.8pp57.0%

1st Serve Won74.0%—74.2%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+2.5pp54.5%

Aces / Match7.9+0.67.3

Double Faults / Match3.00.3 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.1%+3.0pp36.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted33.3%+8.9pp42.2%

Break Pts Saved55.0%+12.7pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.5pp50.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.8%1st Serve In+3.8pp57.0%

74.0%1st Serve Won—74.2%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp54.5%

7.9Aces / Match+0.67.3

3.0Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

33.1%Return Pts Won+3.0pp36.1%

Pressure · 0–2

33.3%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp42.2%

55.0%Break Pts Saved+12.7pp67.7%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.8%

Alexei Popyrin

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Alexei Popyrin 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Alexei Popyrin

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Stat Battle