Alexei Popyrin #103Australia22 – 1Roman Andres Burruchaga #58Argentina1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches consistently exceed 21.5 total games, and their tendency for three-set matches increases the likelihood of a longer contest.

• Popyrin's last 15 matches average 24.1 games per match (362 total games / 15 matches).
• Burruchaga's last 15 matches average 25 games per match (375 total games / 15 matches).
• Both players have high deciding set rates: Popyrin 52% career, Burruchaga 56% career.
• In Bo3 clay matches, both players average over 22 games per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first sets average close to 10 games, and their serve hold rates suggest a competitive opening set likely to exceed 9.5 games.

• Popyrin's last 15 matches: average set1 games = 9.8 (147 total games in 15 first sets).
• Burruchaga's last 15 matches: average set1 games = 9.5 (143 total games in 15 first sets).
• Both players have first serve points won above 64%, indicating tight service games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in their recent matches average near 9.5 games, and with no clear dominance, the set is likely to be close.

• Popyrin's last 15 matches: average set2 games = 9.3 (140 total games in 15 second sets).
• Burruchaga's last 15 matches: average set2 games = 9.7 (145 total games in 15 second sets).
• Both players have similar second set game averages, with Burruchaga slightly higher.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a history of three-set matches, and their competitive stats suggest this match is likely to go the distance.

• Popyrin's deciding set win rate is 52% career, Burruchaga's is 56%.
• In last 15 matches, Popyrin played 38 sets in 15 matches (2.53 sets/match), Burruchaga played 41 sets in 15 matches (2.73 sets/match).
• Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Burruchaga's slightly better set win rate on clay and Popyrin's hard-court struggles suggest Burruchaga may edge the first set.

• Burruchaga has won 48.6% of sets on clay in last 15, while Popyrin has won 40%.
• Popyrin's first set win conversion is 82% career, but recent form shows struggles in opening sets on hard courts.
• Burruchaga's first serve points won is 65% on clay, slightly better than Popyrin's 76.6% but Popyrin's first serve percentage is lower (58.8%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Popyrin's strong serving, especially on hard courts, should push the total aces over 8.5 even with Burruchaga's lower ace count.

• Popyrin averages 7.4 aces per match in last 15, Burruchaga 2.7.
• Combined average aces per match = 10.1.
• Popyrin's ace rate is higher on hard courts historically.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average is just above 6.5, making this a marginal over, but both players' serving inconsistencies support it.

• Popyrin averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15, Burruchaga 3.6.
• Combined average double faults = 6.7.
• Both players have double fault rates above 3 per match on clay.