United StatesWTA TorontoFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Maria Sakkari #33Greece0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Fri 7 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 29 places

Maria Sakkari

Greece

Reached career-high No. 3 on 21 March 2022. She identifies hard and clay as her favorite surfaces; her 2024 shoulder absence is historical rather than a current fitness finding.

Current ranking: #33
Peak ranking: #3 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard and clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Cori Gauff is the clear favorite based on her dominant head-to-head streak on hard courts and superior return game, but the best betting value is on over 20.5 total games.

Sakkari's recent hard-court form keeps her competitive, but Gauff's straight-set dominance in this matchup makes a 2-0 victory the most likely outcome. Avoid backing Gauff at short odds and steer clear of the game handicap and Sakkari 2-0 markets.

Context

Gauff won 6-3 6-2 (Jan 2026), 6-2 6-4 (Mar 2025), and 7-6(1) 6-2 (Mar 2025) in their last three matches.
- All three wins were on hard courts, the same surface as this match.
- Gauff has won 5 of her 6 career victories over Sakkari in straight sets.
Sakkari's last 6 hard-court matches: 5-1 record, 64% games won, 48.5% return points won.
- She beat Zeynep Sonmez 6-3 6-2 in the previous round of this tournament.
- Her only loss in this stretch was a tight 7-6(5) 6-3 defeat to Barbora Krejcikova.
Gauff's return points won over last 15 matches: 46.8% (615/1314).
- Sakkari's return points won over last 15 matches: 40.7% (397/976).
- In their H2H, Gauff has a 44% return points won vs Sakkari's 42%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's dominant H2H streak on hard courts and superior return game make her the clear favorite, but the odds overstate her edge relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's historical first-set dominance in this matchup and higher overall set win percentage support her taking the opener.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Cori Gauff 2-0

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's straight-set dominance in H2H and strong overall form support a 2-0 win, but the edge is negative at current odds.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

The high frequency of straight-set outcomes in their H2H and recent hard-court matches points to under 2.5 sets, but the edge is marginal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Gauff's superior recent form, dominant H2H streak on hard courts, and significant return-point advantage make her the clear favorite.
- H2H: Gauff leads 6-5 overall and 5-4 on hard courts, winning the last 3 meetings in straight sets (2025-2026).
- Last 15 overall: Gauff 11-4 (73.3%) vs Sakkari 9-6 (60%); Gauff has a higher total points won (52.9% vs 51.6%).
- Hard court recent: Sakkari 5-1 in last 6 on hard, but Gauff 1-0 with 65% games won; Gauff's career hard win% is 70.9% vs Sakkari's 59.4%.
- Return points won: Gauff 46.8% vs Sakkari 40.7% in last 15; Gauff's return edge is a key structural advantage.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and H2H history suggest a competitive match likely exceeding 20.5 games.
- Last 15: Sakkari's matches average 21.3 games (319 games/15 matches); Gauff's average 25.4 games (381/15).
- H2H: 7 of their last 10 completed matches had at least 21 games; only 3 were under 20.5.
- Hard court: Sakkari's recent hard matches averaged 18.5 games, but Gauff's only recent hard match had 20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and recent first-set game counts suggest a competitive opener likely exceeding 8.5 games.
- H2H: 8 of their 11 first sets had at least 9 games; average first-set games in H2H is 9.2.
- Last 15: Sakkari's first sets average 9.1 games; Gauff's average 9.8 games.
- Hard court: Sakkari's recent hard first sets: 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 9 games; Gauff's only recent hard first set had 8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Gauff's historical first-set dominance in this matchup and higher overall set win percentage support her taking the opener.
- H2H: Gauff won the first set in 7 of their 11 meetings, including the last 3 matches.
- Last 15: Gauff's first-set win rate is not directly available, but her overall set win% is 65% vs Sakkari's 58.8%.
- Hard court: Sakkari's last 6 hard matches show a strong 83.3% set win rate, but Gauff's career first-set win conversion is 92%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gauff's pattern of straight-set wins in this matchup and her strong form make a 2-0 victory the most likely set outcome.
- H2H: Gauff won in straight sets in 5 of her 6 victories over Sakkari, including the last 3 meetings.
- Last 15: Gauff won 73.3% of matches, with 8 of 11 wins in straight sets; Sakkari lost 6 of 9 wins in straight sets.
- Hard court: Sakkari's only loss in last 6 hard matches was in straight sets; Gauff's recent hard win was straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonCori Gauff 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The high frequency of straight-set outcomes in their H2H and recent hard-court matches points to under 2.5 sets.
- H2H: 8 of their 11 matches ended in straight sets (72.7%); Gauff's last 3 wins were all 2-0.
- Last 15: Gauff's matches went to 3 sets in 7 of 15 (46.7%); Sakkari's in 5 of 15 (33.3%).
- Hard court: Sakkari's last 6 hard matches: 5 straight-set results; Gauff's only recent hard match was straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace counts, and their H2H history shows low combined ace totals, making under 7.5 likely.
- Last 15: Sakkari averages 4.0 aces per match; Gauff averages 3.5 aces per match.
- H2H: Combined aces in their 11 meetings average 5.4 per match (Sakkari 2.3, Gauff 3.1).
- Hard court: Sakkari's recent hard matches: 3.2 aces/match; Gauff's only recent hard match: 4 aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's elevated double-fault rate (4.8/match) and H2H history of high combined double faults push the total over 7.5.
- Last 15: Sakkari averages 3.1 double faults per match; Gauff averages 4.8 double faults per match.
- H2H: Combined double faults in their 11 meetings average 8.2 per match (Sakkari 3.7, Gauff 4.5).
- Hard court: Sakkari's recent hard matches: 1.8 DF/match; Gauff's only recent hard match: 10 DF.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Gauff's recent hard-court sample is too thin to trust a -4.5 game handicap, and Sakkari's strong hard-court form suggests she can keep it close.

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

In her last 15 matches where she was the predicted winner, Coco Gauff fulfilled that prediction 13 times. The average estimated probability in those matches was 75.7%, and she exceeded the expected 11.4 fulfilled predictions. Both of her missed predictions came in matches where she was given a 72% chance, while her successful predictions spanned a wide probability range from 55% to 92%.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Head-to-Head

5-6 (11 meetings)

L6-3 6-2Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Jan 7, 2026

L6-2 6-4Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Mar 22, 2025

L7-6(1) 6-2Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Mar 10, 2025

W6-4 6-7(5) 6-2Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Mar 15, 2024

L6-2 6-4Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Oct 6, 2023

L6-2 6-3Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Aug 6, 2023

W6-4 7-5Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4May 12, 2022

W6-3 6-3Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Feb 24, 2022

L6-1 1-6 6-1Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4May 12, 2021

W7-5 6-2Maria Sakkari#33vCori Gauff#4Jan 9, 2021

11 total meetings

Previous match context available

Maria Sakkari

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#52Zeynep Sonmez

7-6(5) 6-3#26Barbora Krejcikova

6-1 7-5#89Alina Korneeva

6-4 6-3#71Alycia Parks

6-1 6-2#144Harriet Dart

6-0 7-6(1)#103Polina Kudermetova

6-1 6-2#15Jasmine Paolini

6-3 0-6 7-6(7)#83Kamilla Rakhimova

6-3 6-3#30Clara Tauson

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#125Qinwen Zheng

6-3 6-3#80Tatjana Maria

1-6 6-3 6-2#22Maja Chwalinska

6-7(7) 6-3 6-3#116Claire Liu

7-5 7-6(3)#7Linda Noskova

6-3 6-1#57Peyton Stearns

Cori Gauff

11W 4L

6-2 7-5#131Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#6Karolina Muchova

4-6 6-3 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

4-6 6-3 6-4#14Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#116Claire Liu

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#86Solana Sierra

6-2 6-1#47Tamara Korpatsch

1-6 6-3 6-2#84Paula Badosa Gibert

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#27Anastasia Potapova

6-3 6-2#50Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-0#110Taylor Townsend

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-3#18Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-2 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

5-7 7-5 6-2#16Iva Jovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMaria SakkariSakkari

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Maria Sakkari carries the stronger recent form — Cori Gauff's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.5%+5.0pp62.5%

1st Serve Won70.4%+2.1pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+6.4pp44.9%

Aces / Match4.0+0.53.5

Double Faults / Match3.11.7 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.7%+6.1pp46.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.5%+6.7pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+4.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.3pp52.9%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 6 vs 9

Winners / Match6/15 · 9/1523.7+0.423.3

Unforced Errors / Match6/15 · 9/1529.00.3 fewer29.3

Net Pts Won6/15 · 9/1564.4%+4.4pp68.8%

Serve · 4–1

57.5%1st Serve In+5.0pp62.5%

70.4%1st Serve Won+2.1pp68.3%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp44.9%

4.0Aces / Match+0.53.5

3.1Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

40.7%Return Pts Won+6.1pp46.8%

Pressure · 2–0

50.5%Break Pts Converted+6.7pp43.8%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.9%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 6 vs 9

23.7Winners6/15 · 9/15+0.423.3

29.0Unforced Errors6/15 · 9/150.3 fewer29.3

64.4%Net Pts Won6/15 · 9/15+4.4pp68.8%

Maria Sakkari #33Greece0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Player Profiles

Maria Sakkari

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff 2-0

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Coco Gauff (-4.5) @ 1.75

Maria Sakkari 2-0 @ 6.00

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Maria Sakkari

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle