Kayla Day #127United States00 – 2Cori Gauff #4United States2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12

The read

Gauff's superior ranking, recent form against top players, and fresher physical condition give her a dominant edge on hard courts.

• Gauff's last15 overall record: 73.3% (11-4), Day's: 66.7% (10-5) but against weaker opposition (avg rank ~150 vs Gauff's top-50).
• Gauff career hard-court win%: 175-? (70.8% overall), Day career hard-court win%: 178-? (58.1% overall).
• Gauff return points won last15: 46.9%, Day: 42.6%; Gauff break point conversion: 43% vs Day 40.9%.
• Day is playing 3rd match in 4 days after a 3-setter yesterday; Gauff had a bye and is fresher.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

A quick first set is likely as Gauff pressures Day's serve early, leading to under 9.5 games.

• Gauff's last15 average games per set: 9.5, but against lower-ranked players she often wins 6-3 or 6-4.
• Day's last15 hard-court sets averaged 10.25 games, but sample only 8 sets.
• Fatigue may cause an early break; Gauff's return points won: 46.9%.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Gauff's strong start tendency and Day's fatigue make Gauff a heavy favorite to take the opening set.

• Gauff career first-set win conversion: 92%.
• Day's last15 first-set win% not directly given, but she lost first set in her last match and has a 52% deciding set win rate.
• Gauff's last15 first-serve points won: 68%, Day's: 69.1% but Day's hard-court first-serve points won only 72.5% in 2 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Gauff's ability to dominate early and Day's fatigue make a straight-set win probable, though Gauff's break point vulnerability adds some risk.

• Gauff's last15 sets won: 63.4%, Day's: 67.6% but Day's recent hard-court sets won only 62.5% in small sample.
• Day's fatigue likely to cause a slow start; Gauff's first-set win conversion career: 92%.
• Gauff's last15 break point saved: 52.9% (low), but Day's break point conversion only 40.9%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With Gauff's dominance and Day's fatigue, a tiebreak is unlikely in a match expected to be one-sided.

• Gauff's last15 tiebreak win%: not given, but career 61%; Day's career 50%.
• In last15, Gauff played 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches; Day played 4 in 15.
• Expected straight-set win reduces tiebreak likelihood.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server; combined aces likely stay under 7.5 in a likely two-set match.

• Gauff's last15 aces per match: 3.3, Day's: 3.4; combined average 6.7.
• On hard courts, Gauff's last15 aces per match: not available, but career ace rate is moderate.
• Day's hard-court aces per match last15: 5.5 in 2 matches, but small sample.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gauff's high double fault count and Day's potential fatigue make over 6.5 double faults plausible.

• Gauff's last15 double faults per match: 4.5, Day's: 2.9; combined average 7.4.
• Gauff's double fault rate is high, especially under pressure; Day's hard-court double faults per match last15: 6.0 in 2 matches.
• Fatigue may increase Day's error rate.