CanadaWTA TorontoFinished

Predictions graded

Nikola Bartunkova #42Czechia1Amanda Anisimova #10United States2

Sets 6-3 · 0-6 · 4-6Thu 6 Aug 2026, 22:15 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmanda Anisimova · 32 places

Nikola Bartunkova

Czechia

Bartunkova is a 20-year-old Czech right-hander. She reached a recorded career-high No. 41 on July 27, 2026.

Current ranking: #42
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Amanda Anisimova

United States

Anisimova is a 24-year-old American right-hander who reached career-high No. 3 in January 2026. Her prior Rome wrist withdrawal was in May 2026 and is not treated as a current fitness alert.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #3 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Anisimova’s superior return game and ranking give her a slight edge, but Bartunkova’s strong serve and recent form suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 20.5 games.

The best value is on over 20.5 total games and over 9.5 games in set 1, while the match winner market on Anisimova is overpriced.

Context

Bartunkova's last15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), but only 4 matches tracked.
- She won 69.6% of first-serve points and 45.4% of return points on hard courts in that span.
- Her recent hard-court wins came against Tauson (rank 30) and Andreescu (rank 179).
Anisimova's last15 hard-court break points saved: 38.5% (15/39) over 7 matches.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court break points converted: 44.7% (21/47).
- Anisimova's overall last15 break-point save rate is 50.6%, but it drops sharply on hard courts.
Bartunkova's last15 overall average games per match: 26.7 (400 games/15 matches).
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court average: 25.5 games (102/4).
- Anisimova's last15 hard-court average: 20.7 games (145/7).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Anisimova's superior ranking (#10 vs #42) and stronger return game on hard courts give her a slight edge, though Bartunkova's recent form is solid.
- Anisimova's last15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), Bartunkova: 10-5 (66.7%) but with weaker opposition in recent wins.
- Anisimova's career hard-court win%: 134-? (64.2% overall), Bartunkova: 35-? (67.7% overall) but less experience at top level.
- Anisimova's last15 hard-court record: 4-3 (57.1%), Bartunkova: 3-1 (75%) but only 4 matches tracked.
- Anisimova's return points won on hard (last15): 47.9%, Bartunkova: 45.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players tend to play close first sets, with Bartunkova's recent hard-court set1 average above 10, making over 9.5 likely.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court set1 average games: 10.5 (42 games/4 sets), Anisimova: 9.1 (64/7).
- Anisimova's last15 overall set1 average: 9.3 games, Bartunkova: 10.1.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion rates, indicating tight openers.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's matches tend to be longer, and with both players showing decent form, a competitive match likely exceeds 21.5 games.
- Bartunkova's last15 average games per match: 26.7 (400 games/15 matches), Anisimova: 21.0 (315/15).
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court average games per match: 25.5 (102/4), Anisimova: 20.7 (145/7).
- Both players have competitive recent matches with three-setters common.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 2 often remains competitive, and with both players' recent set2 averages near or above 9.5, over is plausible.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court set2 average: 10.0 games, Anisimova: 9.3.
- Anisimova's last15 overall set2 average: 9.1, Bartunkova: 9.7.
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's strong career first-set conversion and Bartunkova's slightly lower first-serve win rate on hard courts in recent matches suggest Anisimova may edge the opener.
- Anisimova's first-set win conversion career: 84%, Bartunkova: 88%.
- Anisimova's last15 hard-court first serve points won: 61.1%, Bartunkova: 69.6%.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court break points saved: 62.2%, Anisimova: 38.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's high double fault rate overall suggests the combined total may exceed 7.5, especially if match extends to three sets.
- Bartunkova's last15 double faults per match: 4.8, Anisimova: 3.8.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court double faults per match: 4.0, Anisimova: 2.7.
- Combined average on hard: 6.7, but overall average is 8.6.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova's high ace count on hard courts pushes the combined total above 8.5, though Anisimova's lower ace rate tempers confidence.
- Bartunkova's last15 aces per match: 6.2, Anisimova: 4.1.
- Bartunkova's last15 hard-court aces per match: 7.5, Anisimova: 3.0.
- Combined average on hard: 10.5 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Amanda Anisimova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Amanda Anisimova has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions. The two missed predictions both occurred when she was projected with a 65% probability, while her successful predictions averaged a higher 75% probability. The current prediction of 58% is below her historical range of 65–88%, indicating less confidence than in any of her previous matches.

Recent evidence for Amanda Anisimova7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·72%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-1#105Sofia Kenin

Amanda Anisimova to win

72%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·88%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#6Amanda Anisimova2-0#223Lina Gjorcheska

Amanda Anisimova to win

88%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

12 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

12 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-1#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Missed

10 Jun·WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#44Laura Siegemund0-2#5Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Amanda Anisimova won

Matched

30 May·WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

BetBugsAmanda Anisimova to win·65%

Missed

30 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#92Diane Parry2-1#6Amanda Anisimova

Amanda Anisimova to win

65%probability

Diane Parry won

Missed

Previous match context available

Nikola Bartunkova

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#30Clara Tauson 7-5 6-4#179Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(6)#79Lanlana Tararudee

3-6 6-4 6-1#128Yue Yuan

6-3 7-5#26Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#37Katerina Siniakova

6-4 3-6 7-5#57Peyton Stearns

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#1Aryna Sabalenka

6-1 6-4#24Elise Mertens

6-2 6-7(2) 6-3#17Diana Shnaider

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#93Hanne Vandewinkel

5-7 6-3 7-5#20Alexandra Eala

6-4 7-6(7)#58Ashlyn Krueger

6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(4)#283Mika Stojsavljevic

6-4 7-6(4)#219Gabriela Andrea Knutson

Amanda Anisimova

9W 6L

3-6 6-2 6-3#23Madison Keys

6-2 4-6 7-6(3)#118Sofia Kenin

6-3 6-2#223Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 3-6 6-3#16Iva Jovic

6-1 6-3#88Laura Siegemund

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#64Diane Parry

6-0 ret.#113Julia Grabher

6-3 6-1#173Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

6-2 6-2#14Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-2#65Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-1 5-7 6-4#95Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 6-1#12Victoria Mboko

6-1 6-1#49Emma Raducanu

5-7 6-1 6-0#108Anna Blinkova

1-6 6-4 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNikola BartunkovaBartunkova

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Amanda AnisimovaAnisimovaAA

Amanda Anisimova carries the stronger recent form — Nikola Bartunkova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In53.4%+13.2pp66.6%

1st Serve Won72.0%+6.5pp65.5%

2nd Serve Won47.5%—47.9%

Aces / Match6.2+2.14.1

Double Faults / Match4.81.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.8%+3.4pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.0%+15.4pp55.4%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+9.4pp50.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.4%+1.7pp53.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

53.4%1st Serve In+13.2pp66.6%

72.0%1st Serve Won+6.5pp65.5%

47.5%2nd Serve Won—47.9%

6.2Aces / Match+2.14.1

4.8Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

42.8%Return Pts Won+3.4pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted+15.4pp55.4%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+9.4pp50.6%

Points · 0–1

51.4%Total Pts Won+1.7pp53.1%

Nikola Bartunkova #42Czechia1Amanda Anisimova #10United States2

Player Profiles

Nikola Bartunkova

Amanda Anisimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 20.5

Amanda Anisimova 2-1

Amanda Anisimova

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Amanda Anisimova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Nikola Bartunkova

Amanda Anisimova

Stat Battle