United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Amanda Anisimova #6United States2Sofia Kenin #105United States1

Sets 6-2 · 4-6 · 7-6Thu 2 Jul 2026, 14:03 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAmanda Anisimova · 99 places

Amanda Anisimova

United States

Career-high No. 3 in January 2026. Reached the 2025 Wimbledon and US Open finals after returning from a 2023 mental-health break.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #3 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Sofia Kenin

United States

Former world No. 4 and 2020 Australian Open champion. Her ranking fell after a 2022 injury layoff, but she entered Wimbledon 2026 back in the main draw at No. 105.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #4 · 2020
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jun 2026, 15:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Anisimova's dominant R1 performance and strong grass form make her the favorite, but Kenin's pedigree and H2H edge add risk.

Expect a straight-set win for Anisimova with under 21.5 total games, though the -5.5 handicap is too steep. First-set and match winner markets lean heavily toward Anisimova, but odds may overstate her chances.

Context

Beat Lina Gjorcheska 6-3 6-2 in 61 minutes, hitting 17 winners and facing zero break points.
- Won 12 of 17 games and controlled the match from start to finish.
- This was her most efficient performance in the last five matches, showing peak readiness.
Lost 6-3 6-1 to Daria Snigur (No. 77) in her most recent grass match before Wimbledon.
- Also lost to Viktorija Golubic (No. 62) twice in the same grass event, winning only one set across two matches.
- Her only grass win in the last four was a tight 7-6 6-4 over Elsa Jacquemot (No. 80).
Kenin won the 2020 Australian Open and reached No. 4 in the world.
- She beat Anisimova in their most recent meeting in 2025, albeit via retirement.
- Her first-round win over No. 47 Petra Marcinko showed she can still compete with higher-ranked players.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Amanda Anisimova

1.12fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Anisimova's superior grass-court form and dominant R1 performance give her a clear edge, but the odds overstate her chances.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Amanda Anisimova

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Anisimova's strong start in R1 and Kenin's recent first-set struggles on grass make Anisimova likely to take the opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Anisimova's superior grass-court form, dominant R1 performance, and higher ranking give her a clear edge in this matchup.
- Anisimova is 6-1 on grass in 2025-2026, Kenin is 5-6 in the same window.
- Anisimova won her R1 match 6-3 6-2 in 61 minutes without facing a break point; Kenin needed 1h40m and faced a tiebreak.
- Anisimova holds a 64% career first-serve win rate on grass vs. Kenin's 63%, and a 48% second-serve win rate vs. 47%.
- Anisimova's last 5 matches: 4-1 with dominant wins over top-50 opponents; Kenin's last 5: 2-3 with losses to players ranked outside top 60.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's efficient wins and Kenin's struggles against top-50 opponents point to a relatively short match.
- Anisimova's last 5 wins averaged 18.4 total games; Kenin's last 5 losses averaged 20.6 total games.
- In their only grass H2H (2017), total games were 18.
- Anisimova's R1 match had 17 games; Kenin's had 23, but Anisimova's dominance suggests a quicker match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's strong serving and Kenin's potential slow start could keep the first set under 9.5 games.
- Anisimova's R1 first set was 6-3 (9 games); Kenin's R1 first set was 7-6 (13 games).
- In their 2017 grass H2H, the first set was 6-3 (9 games).
- Anisimova has held serve strongly on grass, facing 0 break points in R1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Anisimova's strong start in R1 and Kenin's recent first-set struggles on grass make Anisimova likely to take the opener.
- Anisimova has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, including a 6-3 set in R1.
- Kenin lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including a 3-6 set to Snigur on grass.
- Anisimova's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, Kenin's is also 85%, but Anisimova's recent grass form is stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAmanda AnisimovaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's recent straight-set dominance and Kenin's straight-set losses on grass support a 2-0 outcome.
- Anisimova has won in straight sets in 3 of her last 4 wins.
- Kenin has lost in straight sets in 4 of her last 6 losses.
- Anisimova's R1 win was a straight-set 6-3 6-2; Kenin's last grass loss was 3-6 1-6.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAmanda Anisimova 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's dominant serving and return game on grass make a tiebreak less likely in this match.
- Anisimova's last 5 matches: 1 tiebreak; Kenin's last 5: 1 tiebreak.
- Anisimova's R1 had no tiebreak; Kenin's R1 had one tiebreak.
- Anisimova's strong hold game on grass reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, and grass conditions could push the total over 7.5.
- Anisimova averages 5.6 double faults per match career, Kenin 5.3.
- In their H2H, they combined for 16 double faults in 3 matches (5.3 per match).
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and aggressive serving.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass-court conditions and Anisimova's ace rate suggest a combined total over 5.5 aces is slightly more likely.
- Anisimova averages 3.5 aces per match career, Kenin 2.3, but on grass rates are higher.
- In their H2H, they combined for 9 aces in 3 matches (3 per match), but grass boosts ace counts.
- Anisimova hit 5 aces in her R1 win; Kenin hit 2 in hers.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L5-2 ret.Amanda Anisimova#6vSofia Kenin#105Apr 5, 2025

L6-4 6-3Amanda Anisimova#6vSofia Kenin#105Nov 2, 2017

W6-3 6-0Amanda Anisimova#6vSofia Kenin#105Apr 22, 2017

3 total meetings

Amanda Anisimova

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#222Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 3-6 6-3#16Iva Jovic

6-1 6-3#40Laura Siegemund

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#49Diane Parry

6-0 ret.#116Julia Grabher

6-3 6-1#177Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

6-2 6-2#11Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-2#55Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-1 5-7 6-4#94Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 6-1#10Victoria Mboko

6-1 6-1#33Emma Raducanu

5-7 6-1 6-0#114Anna Blinkova

1-6 6-4 6-3#4Jessica Pegula

2-6 7-5 7-6(4)#5Mirra Andreeva

6-1 6-3#42Janice Tjen

Sofia Kenin

4W 11L

7-6(4) 6-4#47Petra Marcinko

6-3 6-1#77Daria Snigur

6-2 4-6 6-3#62Viktorija Golubic

6-3 6-4#62Viktorija Golubic

6-4 6-4#80Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-3#63Peyton Stearns

1-6 6-4 6-1#91Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-4 7-5#180Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

1-6 6-3 6-3#138Qinwen Zheng

7-6(2) 6-4#102Ashlyn Krueger

7-5 7-5#16Iva Jovic

6-4 6-4#180Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

3-6 6-1 6-3#114Anna Blinkova

1-6 6-4 6-1#36Katerina Siniakova

7-6(4) 6-2#25Clara Tauson