Rafael Jodar #24Spain22 – 1Alejandro Tabilo #301

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Jodar's superior recent form and return stats, plus a lower workload this week, give him a moderate edge over Tabilo despite Tabilo's strong hard-court results.

• Jodar last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Tabilo 8-7 (53.3%)
• Jodar last15 hard record 3-0 (100%), Tabilo 3-0 (100%) but Jodar's hard-court wins include Musetti (rank 15) and Fils (22)
• Jodar last15 return points won 41.8% vs Tabilo 34.9%
• Jodar last15 break point conversion 43.8% vs Tabilo 34.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players have strong serves on hard courts, and Tabilo's recent first sets have been tight, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Jodar last15 hard first set average 9.3 games (28 games/3 matches)
• Tabilo last15 hard first set average 10.3 games (31/3)
• Tabilo's last three matches first sets: 10, 9, 13 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Both players are in form and Tabilo's matches this week have been long; a competitive three-setter is likely, pushing total games over 22.5.

• Jodar last15 average games per match 31.0 (261 games/15 matches), Tabilo 26.9 (199/15)
• Both players' last three hard-court matches averaged 22.3 and 29.0 games
• Tabilo's three Washington matches all went to three sets, averaging 29.7 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Tabilo's recent pattern of three-setters and both players' ability to save break points suggest a deciding set is more likely than not.

• Tabilo's last three matches all went to three sets
• Jodar last15 sets per match 3.27 (49 sets/15 matches)
• Both players have high break point save rates (Jodar 65.1%, Tabilo 61.9%)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making under 6.5 a reasonable expectation in a best-of-three match.

• Jodar last15 double faults per match 3.5, Tabilo 2.7
• Combined average 6.2 double faults per match
• Jodar last15 hard double faults per match 2.7, Tabilo 3.7

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tabilo's high ace rate on hard courts and Jodar's decent ace numbers push the combined total over 12.5, though sample sizes are small.

• Jodar last15 aces per match 5.3, Tabilo 7.3
• Tabilo last15 hard aces per match 10.3
• Combined average aces per match 12.6 in last15 overall