MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Denis Shapovalov #68Canada2Dalibor Svrcina #116Czechia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Fri 31 Jul 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDenis Shapovalov · 48 places

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

Reached career-high No. 10 in September 2020. The structured feed lists him at No. 68 and identifies his left-handed, one-handed-backhand game.

Current ranking: #68
Peak ranking: #10 · 2020
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Dalibor Svrcina

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 86 in November 2025. The structured feed lists him at No. 116; ATP lists Marek Jaloviec as his coach.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #86 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Shapovalov's injury comeback and Svrcina's gritty form point to a competitive quarterfinal.

Back over 21.5 games and Svrcina +3.5 games, as Shapovalov's fitness and recent close matches make a blowout unlikely. The match is expected to go three sets, with value on Shapovalov 2-1 at +280.

Context

On July 20, Shapovalov disclosed a rib fracture from Queen's and a shoulder injury during his Wimbledon retirement.
- He has completed two matches this week, including a 67-minute win, but his physical condition remains the main variable.
- The quarterfinal is his third consecutive day of competition, adding workload to an injury comeback.
Svrcina's last15 hard-court record is 2-0, with 57.9% games won and 50% return points won in 2 matches.
- Both wins went the distance, including a three-hour battle against Adam Walton and a retirement win over Luciano Darderi.
- His career hard-court win rate is 58.1%, but his last15 overall return points won is 45%, suggesting the 50% hard-court clip may not hold.
Shapovalov's last15 hard-court record is 2-2, with 48.8% games won and 37.2% return points won in 4 matches.
- His career hard-court win rate is 58.6%, with 75% first-serve points won, but his last15 hard-court first-serve points won is 71.4%.
- He has lost to Botic Van De Zandschulp and Jannik Sinner in straight sets on hard courts in this window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Shapovalov's superior career hard-court pedigree and defending champion status give him an edge, though his recent form is mixed and fitness is a question mark; Svrcina's hard-court sample is too small to override.
- Shapovalov's last15 hard-court record: 2-2 (50%), with 48.8% games won and 37.2% return points won in 4 matches.
- Svrcina's last15 hard-court record: 2-0 (100%), but only 2 matches tracked, with 57.9% games won and 50% return points won.
- Shapovalov's career hard-court win rate: 152-? (58.6% overall), with 75% first-serve points won and 52% second-serve points won.
- Shapovalov is defending champion at Los Cabos (2025 title without dropping a set), indicating strong venue comfort.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDenis ShapovalovEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match histories average over 23 games per match, and with neither dominating, a competitive match likely exceeds 21.5 games.
- Shapovalov's last15 overall average games per match: 23.3 (157 games won + 192 games lost in 15 matches).
- Svrcina's last15 overall average games per match: 23.7 (186 games won + 170 games lost in 15 matches).
- Both players have shown competitive sets recently; Shapovalov's last two hard-court wins were 6-3 6-2 and 2-6 6-3 6-2, while Svrcina's last hard-court match went three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Shapovalov's recent matches have been close, and with fitness concerns, he is unlikely to cover a -3.5 game handicap; Svrcina +3.5 is safer.
- Shapovalov's last15 overall games won margin: -12.8 (157 won, 192 lost), indicating he rarely wins by large margins.
- Svrcina's last15 overall games won margin: +1.1 (186 won, 170 lost), showing competitiveness.
- Shapovalov's last two wins: 12-5 and 14-11 games, but against lower-ranked opponents; Svrcina's last win: 19-16 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDalibor Svrcina +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
With both players strong in first sets and recent hard-court first sets averaging near 10 games, over 9.5 is likely in a competitive opener.
- Shapovalov's last15 hard-court first-set games: in 4 matches, sets were 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 3-6, averaging 9.75 games.
- Svrcina's last15 hard-court first-set games: in 2 matches, sets were 6-7 and 3-0 (ret.), but the completed set had 13 games.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion rates, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended toward longer games in recent matches, and with both players capable of holding serve, over 9.5 is a reasonable expectation.
- Shapovalov's last15 hard-court second-set games: 6-2, 6-3, 7-6, 6-2, averaging 9.5 games.
- Svrcina's last15 hard-court second-set games: 7-6 and 0-0 (ret.), but the completed set had 13 games.
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets; Shapovalov's second-set points won on hard courts is 43.5% on second serve, indicating potential breaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in many three-set matches recently, and with Shapovalov's fitness uncertain, a deciding set is plausible.
- Shapovalov's last15 overall: 5-10 record, with 12 sets won and 24 lost in 15 matches, indicating many three-set matches.
- Svrcina's last15 overall: 8-7 record, with 20 sets won and 17 lost in 15 matches, also showing frequent three-setters.
- Shapovalov's last two hard-court wins: one straight-set, one three-set; Svrcina's last hard-court win was three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov's high career first-set conversion and strong first-serve numbers on hard courts give him a slight edge in the opening set, but Svrcina's own high conversion rate keeps it close.
- Shapovalov's first-set win conversion career: 86%, indicating he often starts strong.
- Svrcina's first-set win conversion career: 85%, similarly high.
- Shapovalov's last15 hard-court first-serve points won: 71.4%, suggesting he can hold serve early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDenis ShapovalovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, especially on hard courts, making over 10.5 double faults likely in a competitive match.
- Shapovalov's last15 overall double faults per match: 6.1, with 5.8 on hard courts.
- Svrcina's last15 overall double faults per match: 4.9, with 6.5 on hard courts.
- Combined average double faults per match: 11.0, with both players showing high rates.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 10.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov's ace capability, especially on hard courts, could push the total over 8.5 even with Svrcina's low ace rate, but it's a borderline call.
- Shapovalov's last15 overall aces per match: 5.5, with 4.8 on hard courts.
- Svrcina's last15 overall aces per match: 2.0, with 2.0 on hard courts.
- Combined average aces per match: 7.5, but Shapovalov's career ace count (4350 in 594 matches) suggests higher potential.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players having average tiebreak rates and recent tiebreak appearances, a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility, but not strongly indicated.
- Shapovalov's career tiebreak win percentage: 50%, with recent tiebreaks in last15: 2 tiebreaks played.
- Svrcina's career tiebreak win percentage: 51%, with recent tiebreaks in last15: 5 tiebreaks played.
- Both players have been involved in tiebreaks recently; Svrcina played two in his last hard-court match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Denis Shapovalov has been unreliable when projected to win

In 5 recent matches where Denis Shapovalov was predicted to win, he fulfilled only 2 predictions. The average estimated probability was 60.6%, yet he lost all 3 missed predictions, indicating a tendency to underperform relative to expectations. His current probability of 62% falls within the historical range of 53–65%, but the evidence suggests caution given the recent shortfall.

Recent evidence for Denis Shapovalov5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#68Denis Shapovalov2-0#320Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

BetBugsDenis Shapovalov to win·65%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#68Denis Shapovalov2-0#320Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Denis Shapovalov to win

65%probability

Denis Shapovalov won

Matched

15 Jun·ATP London

#133Jack Pinnington-Jones1-2#42Denis Shapovalov

BetBugsDenis Shapovalov to win·65%

Matched

15 Jun 2026

ATP London

#133Jack Pinnington-Jones1-2#42Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov to win

65%probability

Denis Shapovalov won

Matched

26 May·ATP Roland Garros

#117Jaime Faria3-0#37Denis Shapovalov

BetBugsDenis Shapovalov to win·65%

Missed

26 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#117Jaime Faria3-0#37Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov to win

65%probability

Jaime Faria won

Missed

25 Apr·Madrid

#140Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#35Denis Shapovalov

BetBugsDenis Shapovalov to win·55%

Missed

25 Apr 2026

Madrid

#140Nicolai Budkov Kjaer2-0#35Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov to win

55%probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won

Missed

6 Apr·ATP

#38Denis Shapovalov1-2#91Alexander Blockx

BetBugsDenis Shapovalov to win·53%

Missed

6 Apr 2026

ATP

#38Denis Shapovalov1-2#91Alexander Blockx

Denis Shapovalov to win

53%probability

Alexander Blockx won

Missed

Denis Shapovalov

5W 10L

6-3 6-2#320Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

2-6 6-3 6-2#93Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-6(7) ret.#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-1#6Alex De Minaur

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#172Jack Pinnington Jones

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#86Marin Cilic

6-4 7-5 6-4#79Jaime Faria

6-4 6-2#44Mariano Navone

6-2 6-1#144Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-4 6-4#74Alex Molcan

7-6(4) 6-2#55Fabian Marozsan

6-4 3-6 6-2#67Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 4-6 6-3#32Alexander Blockx

7-5 6-3#69Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-3 6-2#1Jannik Sinner

Dalibor Svrcina

8W 7L

3-0 ret.#23Luciano Darderi

6-7(2) 7-6(2) 6-3#96Adam Walton

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#140Grigor Dimitrov

6-3 7-6(3)#197Diego Dedura

6-4 6-3#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-1 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#16Learner Tien

2-6 7-5 6-2#134Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-3#160Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-2#423Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-3#307Duje Ajdukovic

6-3 3-6 6-4#215Andrea Guerrieri

5-7 6-3 6-4#304Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-3#321Thomas Faurel

7-6(3) 6-2#191Federico Agustin Gomez

6-7(3) 6-3 6-2#195Guy Den Ouden

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDenis ShapovalovShapovalov

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcinaDS

Dalibor Svrcina carries the stronger recent form — Denis Shapovalov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.7%+1.4pp57.1%

1st Serve Won69.3%+4.4pp64.9%

2nd Serve Won48.9%—48.4%

Aces / Match5.5+3.52.0

Double Faults / Match6.11.2 fewer4.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+9.9pp45.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.3%+11.5pp46.8%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+1.3pp52.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.6%+3.6pp51.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

55.7%1st Serve In+1.4pp57.1%

69.3%1st Serve Won+4.4pp64.9%

48.9%2nd Serve Won—48.4%

5.5Aces / Match+3.52.0

6.1Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer4.9

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+9.9pp45.0%

Pressure · 1–1

35.3%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp46.8%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp52.5%

Points · 0–1

47.6%Total Pts Won+3.6pp51.2%

Denis Shapovalov

Dalibor Svrcina

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Dalibor Svrcina +3.5

Over 9.5

Denis Shapovalov 2-1

Denis Shapovalov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Denis Shapovalov

Dalibor Svrcina

Stat Battle