Denis Shapovalov #68Canada22 – 0Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #320Mexico0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Despite Pacheco Mendez's strong recent hard-court record at lower levels, Shapovalov's superior tour-level experience, defending champion status, and higher peak level on hard courts give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

• Shapovalov's career hard-court win rate is 151-98 (60.6%), while Pacheco Mendez is 51-44 (53.7%) on hard.
• Shapovalov's last 15 overall record is 5-10 (33.3%), but on hard he is 2-2 (50%) with a 45.2% games-won rate.
• Pacheco Mendez's last 15 overall record is 10-5 (66.7%), and on hard he is 5-1 (83.3%) with a 63.8% games-won rate, but all hard wins came in ITF/Challenger events against lower-ranked opponents.
• Shapovalov is the defending champion in Los Cabos, winning the 2025 title without dropping a set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45

The read

Shapovalov's high career first-set conversion rate and the likelihood of a focused start in his second match back from injury suggest he will edge a tight opening set against a less experienced opponent.

• Shapovalov's career first-set win conversion is 86%, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.
• In his last 15 matches, Shapovalov has won the first set in 6 of 15 (40%), but on hard courts he won the first set in 2 of 4 (50%).
• Pacheco Mendez's last 15 first-set record is 8-7 (53.3%), but on hard courts he won the first set in 4 of 6 (66.7%), though against weaker opposition.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both left-handed players have decent ace counts, and with Shapovalov's power and Pacheco Mendez's height, the total aces could surpass 10.5 in a match that may extend to three sets.

• Shapovalov averages 5.9 aces per match in his last 15, with 6.5 on hard courts.
• Pacheco Mendez averages 5.2 aces per match in his last 14 tracked, with 4.4 on hard courts.
• Combined, their recent averages suggest around 11 aces per match, and Shapovalov's lefty serve can produce aces on this surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Shapovalov's aggressive second serve leads to frequent double faults, and combined with Pacheco Mendez's occasional errors, the total double faults are likely to exceed 8.5, especially if the match goes three sets.

• Shapovalov averages 6.3 double faults per match in his last 15, with 6.8 on hard courts.
• Pacheco Mendez averages 3.1 double faults per match in his last 14 tracked, with 2.0 on hard courts.
• Shapovalov's high double-fault rate alone often pushes totals over 8.5, and Pacheco Mendez's lower rate may still contribute enough in a longer match.