Jack Pinnington Jones #133United Kingdom11 – 2Denis Shapovalov #42Canada2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Shapovalov's superior serve power and experience against top-100 opposition give him a clear edge over Pinnington Jones, whose recent grass wins came against lower-ranked players.

• Shapovalov career grass win% 25-31 (44.6%), Pinnington Jones 19-12 (61.3%) but at lower levels
• Shapovalov last 5 matches: 1-4, but opponents avg rank 80.6; Pinnington Jones last 5: 1-4, opponents avg rank 214
• Shapovalov ace rate 9.9% vs Pinnington Jones 5.0%, first-serve win% 75.4% vs 67.6%
• Pinnington Jones 2026 grass: 1-2, losses to Romano (355) and Vukic (100); Shapovalov 0-1 on grass in 2026 but vs Cilic (47) in 3 sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80

The read

With strong serving expected, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing total games over 9.5.

• Pinnington Jones last 5 set1 games: 10, 10, 8, 9, 10 (avg 9.4)
• Shapovalov last 5 set1 games: 13, 10, 10, 8, 10 (avg 10.2)
• Both players hold serve well on grass; Pinnington Jones 67.6% first-serve win%, Shapovalov 75.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent matches average around 22-23 total games, and with neither dominant on return, a close contest likely exceeds 22.5 games.

• Pinnington Jones last 5 matches: avg 22.6 total games, 3 of 5 went over 22.5
• Shapovalov last 5 matches: avg 22.4 total games, 3 of 5 went over 22.5
• Both players have break-point save rates around 60-64%, suggesting holds but potential breaks
• Grass often leads to tiebreaks; Pinnington Jones tiebreak win% 57%, Shapovalov 50%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Similar to set one, the second set should be competitive with few breaks, leading to over 9.5 games.

• Pinnington Jones last 5 set2 games: 12, 8, 10, 13, 10 (avg 10.6)
• Shapovalov last 5 set2 games: 10, 12, 8, 8, 10 (avg 9.6)
• Grass matches often feature tight second sets if first set is close

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pinnington Jones's home comfort and grass form should keep the match close, covering the +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.

• Pinnington Jones last 5 losses: avg game differential -4.2, but 3 of 5 within 3.5 games
• Shapovalov last 5 wins: avg game differential +4.8, but vs lower-ranked opponents
• Home grass advantage and recent grass matches should keep Pinnington Jones competitive

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Shapovalov's powerful serve and experience against top players should allow him to start strongly and take the opening set.

• Shapovalov first-set win% career 58.6%, Pinnington Jones 61.7% but vs weaker fields
• Shapovalov won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Pinnington Jones in 2 of last 5
• Shapovalov's aggressive lefty serve can disrupt Pinnington Jones early on grass

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Shapovalov's high ace count, combined with Pinnington Jones's decent serving, should push total aces over 12.5 on grass.

• Shapovalov ace rate 9.9% (career 4308 aces in 589 matches, ~7.3 per match)
• Pinnington Jones ace rate 5.0% (career 675 aces in 193 matches, ~3.5 per match)
• On grass, ace rates typically increase; Shapovalov's lefty slice serve is a weapon
• Combined average aces per match ~10.8, but grass boosts this

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve well on grass, at least one set is likely to reach a tiebreak.

• Pinnington Jones tiebreak win% 57%, Shapovalov 50%
• Pinnington Jones last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33%)
• Shapovalov last 15 matches: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (27%)
• Grass surface increases likelihood of tiebreaks due to serve dominance