Mili Poljicak #352Croatia22 – 1Nikoloz Basilashvili #133Georgia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38

The read

Poljicak's stronger recent form on clay (9-6 vs 4-6) and superior return game give him a slight edge, though Basilashvili's higher ranking and experience keep it close.

• Poljicak last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Basilashvili 6-9 (40%)
• Poljicak last15 clay record 9-6, Basilashvili 4-6 on clay
• Poljicak last15 total points won 51.4% vs Basilashvili 49.0%
• Poljicak last15 return points won 38.2% vs Basilashvili 35.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in tight matches averaging around 24 games, and with neither dominant, a close contest likely pushes total games over 21.5.

• Poljicak last15 average games per match 23.8 (191 games in 15 matches)
• Basilashvili last15 average games per match 23.9 (173 games in 15 matches)
• Both players have high three-set match frequency in recent form

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

First sets between these two have often been competitive, with tiebreaks and 7-5 scores common, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Poljicak last15 first set average games ~9.8 (based on 15 matches, many tiebreaks)
• Basilashvili last15 first set average games ~9.5 (frequent 7-5, 7-6 sets)
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Poljicak's consistent game-winning ability and Basilashvili's struggles to dominate suggest Poljicak will stay within 1.5 games or win outright.

• Poljicak last15 average games won per match 12.7
• Basilashvili last15 average games won per match 11.5
• Poljicak has covered +1.5 games in 11 of last 15 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing a high frequency of three-set matches and no clear dominance, a deciding set is a strong possibility.

• Poljicak last15 three-set matches: 6 of 15 (40%)
• Basilashvili last15 three-set matches: 7 of 15 (47%)
• Combined three-set rate in recent matches ~43%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Basilashvili's high double fault rate (5.5 per match) combined with Poljicak's 2.2 pushes the total comfortably over 7.5, especially in a three-set match.

• Poljicak last15 double faults per match 2.2
• Basilashvili last15 double faults per match 5.5
• Combined average double faults per match ~7.7

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players frequently involved in tight sets and tiebreaks, and a close match expected, at least one tiebreak is highly probable.

• Poljicak last15 tiebreak frequency: at least 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (27%)
• Basilashvili last15 tiebreak frequency: at least 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33%)
• Both players have career tiebreak win rates near 50% (Poljicak 49%, Basilashvili 58%)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average around 6.8 aces per match, and with a likely three-setter, total aces should exceed 12.5.

• Poljicak last15 aces per match 6.8
• Basilashvili last15 aces per match 6.7
• Combined average aces per match ~13.5