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Predictions graded

Mili Poljicak #3262Maxim Mrva #323Czechia1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 6-3Thu 21 May 2026, 09:17 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaxim Mrva · 3 places

Mili Poljicak

Croatian right-hander born on 13 July 2004. He reached a career-high No. 257 on 30 June 2025, and most of his pro match volume plus his March 2026 Split Challenger title have come on clay.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Maxim Mrva

Czechia

Czech right-hander born on 2 August 2007. He reached a career-high No. 271 on 16 March 2026; the sources reviewed here show a fast rise through Challenger-level events, but they do not clearly state a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #323
Peak ranking: #271 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 04:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Poljicak's dominant 2026 clay form (17-5) and serve advantage make him the favorite, but Mrva's H2H win and three-set tendencies suggest a close match.

Best betting value lies in set betting: Poljicak 2-1 at 4.00 and Mrva 2-1 at 4.50, both with positive edges. Mrva +3.5 games is also a solid handicap play given Poljicak's narrow wins.

Context

Poljicak is 17-5 on clay in 2026 (77.3% win rate), while Mrva is 2-6 on clay this season (25%).
- In his last 15 matches overall, Poljicak has a 10-5 record with wins over top-300 opponents like Tom Gentzsch and Kimmer Coppejans.
- Poljicak won his first-round match 7-6(2), 6-1 against Lucas Poullain, showing sharp form.
- Mrva's clay losses this year include defeats to players ranked outside the top 200, such as Ioannis Xilas and Martin Krumich.
Mrva defeated Poljicak 6-0, 7-5 in their only head-to-head match, played on clay in April 2025.
- In that match, Mrva won 53% of return points and converted 45% of break points, disrupting Poljicak's serve.
- Poljicak's first-serve percentage was only 45% in that match, well below his career average of 58%.
- The match was over a year ago, and Poljicak has improved significantly since then, but the surface familiarity remains.
Poljicak's first-round match finished on 19 May, and his second-round match is scheduled for 20 May, leaving a short recovery window.
- Mrva played his first-round match on 18 May, giving him a full day of rest before this match.
- Poljicak's match was a straight-sets win (7-6, 6-1), so the physical toll was moderate, but the mental freshness could be tested.
- There are no reported injuries for either player, but the scheduling difference could matter in a best-of-three clay match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Poljicak's dominant clay-court form in 2026 and superior serve/return structure give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Poljicak is 17-5 on clay in 2026 (77.3% win rate) vs Mrva's 2-6 on clay in 2026 (25%).
- In last 15 matches, Poljicak holds a 10-5 record with wins over top-300 opponents, while Mrva is 7-8 with losses to several players ranked outside top 200.
- Poljicak's career clay win percentage is 116-77 (60.1%) vs Mrva's 36-32 (52.9%).
- Poljicak's first-serve win rate (69.6%) and break-point save rate (60.1%) exceed Mrva's (63.9% and 53.1%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMili PoljicakEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's competitive losses and Poljicak's tendency for close wins make Mrva +3.5 games a solid handicap.
- Poljicak's average games won margin in last 15 matches is +2.1; Mrva's is -0.3, but Mrva's losses are often close.
- In Mrva's last 5 losses, the game differential was -4, -4, -3, -5, -6, averaging -4.4, but against similar-ranked opponents it's tighter.
- Poljicak's wins are often by narrow margins: 4 of his last 6 wins were by 4 games or fewer.
- H2H was a 6-0, 7-5 win for Mrva, showing he can cover +3.5 against Poljicak.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaxim Mrva +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths and both players' tendency to play close sets support a total games over 21.5.
- Poljicak's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games; Mrva's last 5 averaged 23.8 total games.
- Both players have a high deciding-set rate: Poljicak 56% career, Mrva 57% career, indicating close matches.
- In their only H2H, total games were 18 (6-0, 7-5), but current form suggests a tighter contest.
- Clay-court matches at this level often feature extended rallies and fewer quick sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players average above 9.5 games, with frequent tiebreaks and close margins.
- Poljicak's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-6, 0-6, 7-5, 6-2 (avg 10.2 games).
- Mrva's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 3-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 (avg 10.6 games).
- Both players have tiebreak experience: Poljicak 47% career tiebreak win, Mrva 50%, suggesting potential for extended sets.
- Only 2 of Poljicak's last 15 first sets ended 6-0 or 6-1; Mrva had 3 such lopsided first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's second sets tend to be longer, and a competitive match scenario increases the chance of over 9.5 games in set 2.
- Poljicak's last 5 second sets: 6-1, 6-7, 6-1, 6-1, 2-6 (avg 8.2 games, but 3 were lopsided).
- Mrva's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 7-6, 6-3, 6-7, 7-5 (avg 10.4 games).
- When the first set is close, the second set often extends; both players have shown resilience.
- Limited data on set2 specifically, but overall match competitiveness supports over 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Poljicak's strong recent first-set performance and overall form advantage make him the likely set1 winner.
- Poljicak has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including his last match 7-6(2).
- Mrva has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%), including his last match 4-6.
- Poljicak's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, identical to Mrva's, but Poljicak's recent form is stronger.
- In their only H2H meeting on clay, Mrva won the first set 6-0, but that was over a year ago and Poljicak's current level is higher.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMili PoljicakEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' three-set tendencies and competitive recent form makes over 2.5 sets likely.
- Poljicak has gone to three sets in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%); Mrva in 7 of his last 15 (47%).
- Both players have a deciding-set win rate above 55%, indicating they often push matches to a third set.
- In their only H2H, the match ended in straight sets, but current form suggests a closer contest.
- Clay-court matches at Challenger level have a higher three-set frequency due to surface neutrality.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates on clay and both players' moderate serving power suggest total aces will stay under 7.5.
- Poljicak's ace rate is 6.4% (career 1196 aces in 269 matches, ~4.4 per match); Mrva's is 3.8% (307 aces in 114 matches, ~2.7 per match).
- On clay, ace counts are typically lower due to slower surface; both players' ace rates likely drop.
- In their H2H, Mrva had 1 ace, Poljicak had 0 (data incomplete but indicative).
- Recent matches: Poljicak averaged ~3 aces in last 5; Mrva averaged ~2.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's elevated double-fault rate and the potential for a three-set match push total double faults over 5.5.
- Poljicak's double-fault rate is 2.6% (495 in 269 matches, ~1.8 per match); Mrva's is 5.8% (468 in 114 matches, ~4.1 per match).
- Mrva's high double-fault rate is a consistent pattern, especially under pressure on clay.
- In their H2H, Mrva had 2 double faults, Poljicak had 3, totaling 5 in a straight-set match.
- Extended rallies and longer matches increase double-fault likelihood.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches makes a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Poljicak has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%); Mrva in 6 of his last 15 (40%).
- Both players have near-50% tiebreak win rates, indicating they frequently reach tiebreaks.
- In their H2H, no tiebreak occurred, but current form shows more close sets.
- Clay-court matches often feature tiebreaks when servers hold consistently.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 7-5Mili Poljicak#326vMaxim Mrva#323Apr 3, 2025

1 total meetings

Mili Poljicak

11W 4L

7-6(2) 6-1#370Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-5#333Dominic Stricker

6-0 6-1#280Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-5 6-1#440Denis Yevseyev

6-2 2-6 6-4#509Vladyslav Orlov

6-3 6-4#289Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 7-5#716Denys Klok

6-0 6-0#862Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 3-0 ret.#283Michele Ribecai

6-2 3-6 6-2#205Lorenzo Giustino

6-4 6-3#254Henri Squire

6-4 6-4#219Tom Gentzsch

3-6 6-4 6-4#212Kimmer Coppejans

4-1 ret.#202Matej Dodig

6-1 6-2#237Felix Gill

Maxim Mrva

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-2#288Jonas Forejtek

6-3 6-7(0) 7-5#216Federico Cina

7-6(3) 6-3#239Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#552Andrea Vavassori

5-7 7-5 6-1#242Alejandro Moro Canas

3-6 6-2 6-1#293Martin Krumich

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#212Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 6-4#307Daniel Rincon

6-2 6-3#159Toby Samuel

6-3 6-1#311Paul Jubb

6-3 6-3#386Petr Nesterov

6-4 6-7(3) 6-0#607Federico Iannaccone

6-2 6-4#325Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 6-3#359Ioannis Xilas

4-6 7-6(6) 6-1#502Svyatoslav Gulin

Mili Poljicak #3262Maxim Mrva #323Czechia1

Player Profiles

Mili Poljicak

Maxim Mrva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mili Poljicak

Mili Poljicak 2-1

Maxim Mrva 2-1

Mili Poljicak

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Mili Poljicak

Maxim Mrva