Mili Poljicak #34111 – 2Sumit Nagal #277India2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Nagal's recent losses have been competitive, and with Poljicak not overwhelmingly dominant, Nagal is likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Nagal has kept matches close even in losses, with 3 of his last 5 losses within 3 games
• Poljicak's wins have often been by 4+ games, but Nagal's competitiveness suggests a closer match
• Their H2H was a straight-set win for Nagal, indicating he can compete with Poljicak

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have trended toward higher game totals, and with neither dominating serve, a competitive match is likely to exceed 21.5 games.

• Poljicak's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5
• Nagal's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5
• Their only H2H match (2025 clay) had 18 games, but current form suggests closer contests

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' recent first-set game counts, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.

• Poljicak's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5
• Nagal's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5
• Both players have similar first-serve win percentages around 64-70%, suggesting few easy holds

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and on clay, ace counts are typically low, making under 5.5 aces highly probable.

• Poljicak averages 6.4% ace rate, but in recent matches he has hit 2-3 aces per match
• Nagal averages only 2.2% ace rate, with very low ace counts in recent matches
• Their H2H match had only 2 aces total (both by Poljicak)