CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Martin #404Slovakia0Thiago Seyboth Wild #206Brazil2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 198 places

Andrej Martin

Slovakia

Reached career-high No. 93 in February 2020. His career activity is heavily concentrated on clay, and he won the Liberec Challenger in 2014 and 2018.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #93 · 2020
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Reached career-high No. 58 in May 2024. His sole ATP singles title came on clay in Santiago in 2020.

Current ranking: #206
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 22:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Seyboth Wild is in dominant clay-court form (13-2 last 15) and should overpower Andrej Martin, who has a weaker serve and is coming off two qualifying matches.

Best betting angles are Seyboth Wild -3.5 games and over 8.5 total aces, while avoiding Martin at long odds.

Context

Martin beat Tommy Luxa 6-3 6-4 in qualifying on July 26 and Alec Beckley 7-5 1-6 7-6(11) on July 27.
- Seyboth Wild last played on July 26, a straight-set win, and has had a day of rest.
- Martin's last five matches averaged 22.8 games, with four going to three sets, showing he often plays extended matches.
Seyboth Wild's last 15: 13-2 record, 79.4% sets won, 59.5% games won.
- He wins 71.9% of first-serve points and saves 66.7% of break points.
- Martin's last 15: 10-5 record, 56.8% sets won, 52.4% games won, with a 54.5% break-point save rate.
2019 clay match: Seyboth Wild won 6-2 6-2.
- Seyboth Wild won 83% of first-serve points and 56% of second-serve points.
- Martin won only 28% of return points and 35% of second-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Thiago Seyboth Wild

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Seyboth Wild's dominant recent form (13-2, 86.7% win rate) and superior serve/return metrics give him a clear edge over Martin.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Thiago Seyboth Wild

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Seyboth Wild's dominant serving and early-set control (won first set in last 5 matches) give him a clear edge, though the odds slightly overstate his probability.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Seyboth Wild's straight-set dominance in 11 of his last 15 wins suggests a high probability of a 2-0 victory, though the price is slightly short.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Seyboth Wild's dominant set-winning percentage and recent straight-set trend make 2-0 likely, but the odds are close to fair value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Seyboth Wild's dominant recent form (13-2, 86.7% win rate) and superior serve/return metrics (71.9% first-serve points won, 66.7% break points saved) give him a clear edge over Martin, who has a weaker recent record and lower break-point conversion.
- Last 15 overall: Seyboth Wild 13-2 (86.7%) vs Martin 10-5 (66.7%)
- Last 15 clay: Seyboth Wild 86.7% win rate, 59.5% games won; Martin 66.7%, 52.4% games won
- Seyboth Wild last 5: 5-0, all straight-set wins; Martin last 5: 3-2, two three-setters
- H2H: Seyboth Wild won 6-2 6-2 on clay in 2019
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild's recent matches have been efficient (last 5 all straight-set wins, avg 18.6 games), and his superior game-winning percentage suggests a relatively quick match, likely under 21.5 games.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: average 20.7 games per match; Martin 23.5
- Seyboth Wild last 5: all straight-set wins, average 18.6 games; Martin last 5: two three-setters, average 22.8 games
- Seyboth Wild games won %: 59.5% vs Martin 52.4%
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild's consistent game dominance in recent matches (avg +5.0 margin in last 5) and superior overall game-winning percentage support a -3.5 handicap cover.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: average game margin +3.9; Martin -0.5
- Seyboth Wild games won %: 59.5% vs Martin 52.4%
- Seyboth Wild last 5: game margins of +5, +5, +6, +2, +7 (avg +5.0)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonThiago Seyboth Wild -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild's strong serve and Martin's moderate return game suggest a relatively short first set, with Seyboth Wild likely to hold serve comfortably and secure an early break.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: first-set average 9.1 games; Martin 9.7
- Seyboth Wild first-serve points won: 71.9%; Martin return points won: 44.4%
- Seyboth Wild last 5 first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6, 6-3 (avg 9.2 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Seyboth Wild's strong serving and early-set dominance in recent matches (won first set in last 5) contrast with Martin's occasional slow starts, making Seyboth Wild the likely first-set winner.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: 79.4% sets won; Martin 56.8%
- Seyboth Wild first-serve points won: 71.9% vs Martin 65.1%
- Seyboth Wild last 5 matches: won first set in all 5; Martin lost first set in 2 of last 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Seyboth Wild's dominant set-winning percentage and recent trend of straight-set victories (last 5 all 2-0) make a 2-0 win likely against Martin, who has been pushed to three sets more often.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: 79.4% sets won, 11 of 13 wins in straight sets
- Martin last 15: 56.8% sets won, 6 of 10 wins in straight sets
- Seyboth Wild last 5: all straight-set wins; Martin last 5: 2 three-set wins
BetBugs · Set BettingwonThiago Seyboth Wild 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild's high ace rate (6.9 per match) alone nearly covers the over, and Martin's modest ace count adds a buffer, making over 8.5 total aces probable.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: 6.9 aces per match; Martin 2.8
- Combined average: 9.7 aces per match
- Seyboth Wild first-serve points won: 71.9%; Martin first-serve in: 59.8%
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's high double-fault rate (4.0 per match) drives the total, and Seyboth Wild's occasional double faults push the combined average above 5.5.
- Martin last 15: 4.0 double faults per match; Seyboth Wild 1.7
- Combined average: 5.7 double faults per match
- Martin second-serve points won: 48.3%, indicating pressure on second serve
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild's strong serve and high break-point conversion rate reduce the likelihood of tight sets, making a tiebreak-free match more probable.
- Seyboth Wild last 15: tiebreak in 3 of 15 matches (20%); Martin: 4 of 15 (27%)
- Seyboth Wild first-serve points won: 71.9%; Martin break points saved: 54.5%
- Seyboth Wild break points converted: 54.3% vs Martin 41.5%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

Thiago Seyboth Wild has been highly reliable when projected to win

He has fulfilled 12 of 15 win predictions (80%). The average estimated probability in those matches was 65.5%, with an expected 9.8 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. All three losses came when he was the predicted winner, and the current 72% probability sits within his historical range of 58–78%.

Recent evidence for Thiago Seyboth Wild15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#206Daniel Rincon1-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·58%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#206Daniel Rincon1-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

58%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#284Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#153Zdenek Kolar

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·58%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#284Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#153Zdenek Kolar

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

58%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-2Andrej Martin#404vThiago Seyboth Wild#206Aug 15, 2019

1 total meetings

Andrej Martin

10W 5L

7-5 1-6 7-6(11)#557Alec Beckley

6-3 6-4—Tommy Luxa

7-6(0) 6-1#383Mathys Erhard

7-6(3) 6-3#393Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4—Alexander Wagner

7-5 3-6 7-5#520Khumoun Sultanov

6-4 6-4—Oskari Paldanius

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1—Florian Zimmer

6-1 6-3#426Henry Bernet

6-1 6-7(6) 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-1 1-0 ret.#571Lorenzo Angelini

6-4 2-6 7-5#597Lorenzo Bocchi

6-3 6-1—Ivan Biletic

6-4 6-2—Vito Antonio Darderi

6-4 2-6 7-5—Adrien Burdet

Thiago Seyboth Wild

13W 2L

6-4 6-3#240Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 6-3#434Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#295Philip Henning

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#207Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#154Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#553Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#547Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#725Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

6-2 6-2#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-3#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-0 1-0 ret.#369Nicolas Kicker

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#666Lucas Andrade Da Silva

2-6 6-3 6-2—Luis Felipe Miguel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndrej MartinMartin

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Thiago Seyboth WildWildTW

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Andrej Martin's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In59.8%+4.4pp64.2%

1st Serve Won65.1%+6.8pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won48.3%+8.2pp56.5%

Aces / Match2.8+4.16.9

Double Faults / Match4.02.3 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.4%+1.0pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.5%+12.8pp54.3%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+12.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+3.7pp55.0%

Serve · 0–5

59.8%1st Serve In+4.4pp64.2%

65.1%1st Serve Won+6.8pp71.9%

48.3%2nd Serve Won+8.2pp56.5%

2.8Aces / Match+4.16.9

4.0Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

44.4%Return Pts Won+1.0pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–2

41.5%Break Pts Converted+12.8pp54.3%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+12.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+3.7pp55.0%

Andrej Martin

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andrej Martin @ 3.30

Head-to-Head

Andrej Martin

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Stat Battle