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StrasbourgAuxerre

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 14:001 Nov, 14:00

10Probabilities7Priced7Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Strasbourg's four-match league losing run meets an Auxerre side chasing a first back-to-back away win since 2010, and both defences concede regularly.

A scoring game looks the likeliest shape, with the Yes on both teams to score at 1.55 and over 2.5 goals at 1.53 holding up against the records. Strasbourg under 4.5 corners at 2.30 and Auxerre over 3.5 corners at 1.62 do too.

Context

Strasbourg's four straight league defeats and Auxerre's improved away threat frame the contest, and both sides' habit of conceding in nearly every match makes the goals question the central sporting issue.

Strasbourg's home record in this fixture is the strongest counterweight to their four-match league losing run. Those wins came in earlier seasons against different Auxerre teams, and the 0-0 in March 2026 shows the pairing can also produce a tight, goalless afternoon.
- 29 Oct 2025: Strasbourg 3-0 Auxerre in Ligue 1
- 5 Jan 2025: Strasbourg 3-1 Auxerre in Ligue 1
- 19 Mar 2023: Strasbourg 2-0 Auxerre in Ligue 1
- 7 Mar 2026: Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg in Ligue 1
A side that has conceded in every competitive match of the recent window gives Auxerre a route to goals even on an away ground where Strasbourg have historically been strong. It also explains why a mutual-scoring game is the likeliest shape, with the caveat that one quiet afternoon from either attack would undo it.
- 10 competitive matches tracked, 13 May to 25 Oct 2026: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses
- Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 matches
- Strasbourg kept 0 clean sheets in that window
It shows Auxerre can turn an away game into goals without dominating the shot count, which matters against a Strasbourg side that has conceded in every competitive match of the recent window. That away threat is the reason this looks like a scoring game rather than a cautious one.
- 18 Oct 2026: Auxerre won 3-1 away at Le Havre in Ligue 1
- Auxerre scored 1 in the first half and 2 in the second half
- Shots: Auxerre 13, Le Havre 15; shots on target 6-6

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 61%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre arrive in better form and Strasbourg are in a deep losing run, so avoiding defeat is the more likely away outcome.
- Auxerre sit 12th on 10 points, Strasbourg 16th on 7
- Auxerre form DWLWW with three wins in their last five league matches
- Strasbourg are on a four-game league losing run, their longest since 2007/08
- Counterweight: Strasbourg won the last three home meetings against Auxerre 3-0, 3-1 and 2-0
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or AuxerreEstimated chance61%

Goals4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets and both have scored regularly home and away, so a mutual scoring game is the natural baseline.
- Strasbourg: both teams scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches; 0 clean sheets
- Strasbourg home splits: both teams scored in all 4 matches (2.25 for, 2.25 against)
- Auxerre: both teams scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches, 5 of last 6
- Auxerre away splits: 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded per game in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.55Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both defences concede heavily and both sides' matches routinely pass three goals, so an open game is likely.
- Strasbourg match goal average: 1.9 scored + 2.3 conceded = 4.2 per game
- Auxerre match goal average: 1.56 scored + 2.0 conceded = 3.56 per game
- Strasbourg home matches average 4.5 total goals (2.25 each way)
- Recent form: 3-1, 1-3, 1-4 and 6-2 scorelines appear across both teams' recent rows
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.53Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first halves average well over a goal combined, with Strasbourg particularly leaky before the break.
- Strasbourg first half: 0.7 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Auxerre first half: 0.56 scored and 0.67 conceded per game
- Combined first-half goal estimate is roughly 1.4-1.5
- Strasbourg have conceded first-half goals in several recent matches, including 2 at Rennes
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring and conceding after the interval, making the second half the likelier source of goals.
- Strasbourg second half: 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded per game
- Auxerre second half: 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded per game
- Combined second-half goal estimate is around 2.4 per match
- Second-half goals are the larger share of both teams' scoring
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance66%

Match stats5 outcomes · top 74%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Strasbourg simply do not win many corners, and their habit of ceding territory keeps their own count low.
- Strasbourg average 2.8 corners per match across 10 games
- At home they average 3.0 corners over 4 matches
- They concede 5.1 corners per game, showing they spend long spells without the ball
- Single-match home corner counts in the sample sit at 2-3 rather than 5+
BetBugs · Home CornersStrasbourg under 4.5Market price2.30Estimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Auxerre generate a steady corner supply and face a Strasbourg side that regularly gives opponents set-piece territory.
- Auxerre average 5.33 corners per match across 9 games, 4.6 in 5 away matches
- Strasbourg concede 5.1 corners per game
- Auxerre's away rows include 4, 5, 7 and 8 corners
- Auxerre also concede a lot of corners (6.44 per game), pointing to end-to-end play
BetBugs · Away CornersAuxerre over 3.5Market price1.62Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Auxerre's matches are corner-heavy and Strasbourg's opponents win plenty of corners, so the combined count should clear the line.
- Strasbourg matches average 2.8 + 5.1 = 7.9 total corners
- Auxerre matches average 5.33 + 6.44 = 11.8 total corners
- Combined estimate is around 9-10 corners per match
- Both teams sit above 10 total corners in several individual rows
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Market price1.53Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede a high volume of shots and take a reasonable number themselves, so a busy shooting match fits the data.
- Strasbourg matches: 12.3 shots for and 17.3 against = 29.6 total
- Auxerre matches: 11.67 shots for and 14.11 against = 25.8 total
- Strasbourg home games: 15.25 for and 17 against
- Auxerre away games: 10 for and 16.2 against
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 23.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both sides pick up a normal share of bookings and their opponents do too, which points to a match past the two-card mark.
- Strasbourg: 1.7 yellows per game, opponents 1.2
- Auxerre: 1.44 yellows per game, opponents 1.78
- Combined discipline estimate is around 3 cards per match
- Strasbourg's recent rows include a 3-yellow match and multiple 2-yellow games
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.25Estimated chance61%