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Recoleta FCSportivo Ameliano

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 20:0031 Oct, 20:00

9Probabilities6Priced6Edges79%Strongest

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 16:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Ameliano sit higher and have lost just twice away in the league, but Recoleta's thin scoring and a three-day turnaround from their cup quarter-final keep this tight.

Ameliano avoiding defeat is the likeliest result, though 1.45 asks too much for it; first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.45, Recoleta under 1.5 goals at 1.55 and Draw or Ameliano at half-time at 1.30 are the prices that hold.

Context

Recoleta played a Copa Paraguay quarter-final on 28 October, three days before kickoff, and Ameliano's J. González was sent off on 25 October with no confirmation either way on his availability. Both are genuine freshness and selection questions, but neither is settled by the available evidence.

The dismissal came in Ameliano’s most recent Clausura fixture, and the refereeing review subsequently upheld it. Any resulting ban would affect the visitors’ defensive options against Recoleta, making the confirmed team sheet important. The cited material does not specify the disciplinary sanction or confirm that González will miss this match.
- Julio César González was sent off late in Sportivo Ameliano's 3-2 loss to Olimpia on 25 October.
- The post-match refereeing review judged the dismissal correct.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Recoleta’s cup quarter-final took place in Itauguá on 28 October, leaving a short recovery window before this Clausura fixture. That recent competitive workload may shape freshness or selection against Ameliano. The semi-final itself is scheduled for later, so it does not create an immediate fixture clash.
- Recoleta beat Sportivo Luqueño 2-0 in the Copa Paraguay quarter-final on 28 October.
- The result put Recoleta into the Copa Paraguay semi-finals for the first time.
- Recoleta will face Libertad in the semi-final.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Conceding 2.14 goals per home game is the main reason Recoleta sit 11th on 12 points from 16 league games. Ameliano have drawn five of eight away league matches, so the likely shape is sustained visiting pressure without necessarily a wide margin.
- Seven Recoleta home matches tracked between 18 August and 16 October 2026.
- Record in that sample: two wins, no draws, five defeats.
- Recoleta conceded 2.14 goals per home game and kept one clean sheet.
The 4-1 result was an unusually open previous Clausura meeting between the clubs and provides a clear historical reference for this fixture. Recoleta’s win was their third in succession at that point. It predates the current season and does not establish the likely line-ups or tactical balance on Saturday.
- Recoleta won 4-1 away to Sportivo Ameliano in 2025 Clausura round 14.
- The match was played at La Fortaleza del Pikysyry in Villeta.
- Jorge Sanguina missed a stoppage-time penalty for Ameliano.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 16:01 · Europe/BucharestD10d10.ultimahora.com · 29 Sep 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 79%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Ameliano are the stronger side and rarely lose away, while Recoleta's home record is poor and draw-free.
- Ameliano are 8th on 19 points; Recoleta are 11th on 12.
- Ameliano away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 3 defeats in 8; they have lost only 3 of 8 on the road.
- Recoleta at home: 2 wins, 0 draws, 5 defeats, conceding 2.14 goals per home game.
- Head-to-head: Ameliano won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with one draw.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Sportivo AmelianoMarket price1.45Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Recoleta almost never score before half-time, making a half-time lead for them very unlikely.
- Recoleta average just 0.27 first-half goals scored across 15 matches.
- Recoleta concede 0.73 first-half goals, so they trail at the break more often than they lead.
- Ameliano concede only 0.47 first-half goals and score 0.27.
- Ameliano were level or ahead at half-time in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Sportivo AmelianoMarket price1.30Estimated chance79%

Goals4 outcomes · top 77%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both defences leak and the recent head-to-head record shows both teams scoring in every meeting.
- Ameliano have seen both teams score in 10 of 15 matches, and in 5 of their last 6.
- All five recent head-to-head meetings produced goals for both sides (3-1, 3-2, 1-1, 4-1, 3-1).
- Recoleta have scored in roughly two-thirds of their matches (10 goals in 15).
- Ameliano have kept no clean sheet in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.67Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Neither team scores meaningfully before half-time, so first-half totals should stay low.
- Recoleta average 0.27 first-half goals scored and 0.73 conceded.
- Ameliano average 0.27 first-half goals scored and 0.47 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal expectation across both teams is under one per game.
- In Ameliano's last four league games only one first-half goal was scored before the 45th minute in total by either side in three of them.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.45Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Recoleta's attack is the weakest part of their game and rarely produces more than a single goal at home.
- Recoleta average 0.93 goals per game overall and 1.14 at home.
- They scored only 6 goals across 7 home matches in the sample.
- In their last six matches they were held to one goal or fewer five times.
- Ameliano concede just 1.0 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalRecoleta FC under 1.5Market price1.55Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Recoleta concede regularly at home and Ameliano have found the net consistently of late.
- Ameliano average 1.13 goals per game overall and 1.0 away from home.
- Recoleta concede 1.53 goals per game overall and 2.14 per home game.
- Recoleta kept only one clean sheet in seven home matches.
- Ameliano have scored in five of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalSportivo Ameliano over 0.5Market price1.22Estimated chance73%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede a high volume of shots, and the two shot profiles together sit comfortably above the line.
- Recoleta matches average 25.9 total shots (10.5 for, 15.4 against) across 12 matches.
- Ameliano matches average 28.2 total shots (13.1 for, 15.1 against) across 14 matches.
- Both teams allow well over 15 shots per game against them.
- Five of Recoleta's last five recorded matches and all six of Ameliano's recent matches cleared 23 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 23.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner rates for both teams sit just above the line, with opponents generating plenty.
- Recoleta matches average 10.6 corners combined (5.27 for, 5.36 against) across 11 matches.
- Ameliano matches average 10.2 corners combined (4.36 for, 5.86 against) across 14 matches.
- Ameliano's recent matches include totals of 13, 11, 20 and 8 corners.
- Both sides' opponents win more corners than they do, pointing to volume at both ends.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card totals cluster around four to five per match, just under the line.
- Recoleta average 2.6 yellow cards and their opponents 1.0 across 10 matches.
- Ameliano average 2.43 yellow cards and their opponents 2.0 across 14 matches.
- Combined match card expectation sits close to five, below the 5.5 line.
- Red cards are frequent for both sides, which adds variance.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%