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Predictions graded

Puebla1Pumas UNAM2

HT 1–1Sat 31 Oct 2026, 03:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–0100%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 17–13On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Puebla's home softness against Pumas' record in this fixture frames a mid-table Jornada 15 meeting: Puebla have won once in six at home and are winless in six overall, while Pumas are unbeaten in the last five head-to-heads.

Pumas to draw or win is the likelier result, but at 1.33 the price asks too much. The one price that offers anything is over 9.5 corners at 1.62.

Context

Puebla conceded four goals against Monterrey on 22 October and four more at Atlas three days later. That puts their defensive setup under immediate scrutiny for the Pumas visit. The supplied evidence does not identify an injury, suspension or selection change behind those results, so it does not establish the cause or a likely lineup response.
- Puebla lost 3-4 at Atlas on 25 October 2026.
- Puebla lost 1-4 to Monterrey on 22 October 2026.
- Puebla drew 0-0 with Tijuana before those two defeats.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 15:48 · Europe/BucharestWorld Soccer Talkworldsoccertalk.com · 29 Oct 2026
Puebla's home split reads one win, three draws and two defeats from six matches, with five goals scored and six conceded, the latest on 25 October 2026. None of those six home fixtures ended with a clean sheet for the hosts, which keeps both-teams-to-score scenarios live despite modest scoring numbers. Six home matches in a single Apertura campaign is a narrow base, so this is a short-window observation rather than a settled pattern.
- Puebla home split, 1 August to 25 October 2026: 6 matches, 1W-3D-2L, 5 goals scored, 6 conceded, 0 clean sheets.
- Opponents scored in all six of those home matches.
The six-match home split through 25 October 2026 shows Puebla winning few corners themselves while conceding plenty, 4.5 for and 7.33 against per match. Visiting sides, rather than Puebla's own pressure, have generated most of the corner opportunities at their ground. Only six home fixtures inform the split, so it is a narrow base, but the figure is well clear of a ten-corner line and Pumas' own away matches have averaged 9.67 combined across nine games.
- Puebla home split, 1 August to 25 October 2026: 6 matches, 4.5 corners for and 7.33 corners against per match (11.83 combined).
- Pumas away split, 22 July to 22 October 2026: 9 matches, 3.44 corners for and 6.22 against per match (9.67 combined).
Standings as of 30 October 2026 show Pumas taking ten points from seven away matches and seven from seven at home. On the road they have scored 10 and conceded 11; at home they have scored 10 and conceded 12, with four of seven matches drawn. That away resilience supports the expectation they avoid defeat at Puebla, though the gap between the two records is one win and Puebla's own home form includes three draws.
- Liga MX standings fetched 30 October 2026: Pumas away record 7 matches, 3W-1D-3L, 10 goals scored, 11 conceded.
- Pumas home record over the same 7 matches: 1W-4D-2L, 10 scored, 12 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Pumas UNAM

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

−7.2ppshort

Pumas have the better head-to-head record and away results, while Puebla have won only once at home.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

−9.4ppshort

Both teams' home/away goal environments sit just below four goals per game.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

−0.6ppshort

Both sides score regularly and neither has kept clean sheets in the relevant home or away split.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 77.5%

−3.5ppshort

Both teams' first-half profiles point to at least one goal, especially with Puebla conceding early.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Pumas UNAM

1.25fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 80%

−3.0ppshort

Puebla rarely lead at the break and usually concede first-half goals, so Pumas are well placed to avoid a half-time deficit.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Puebla under 2.5

1.10fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 90.9%

−6.9ppshort

Puebla's scoring output is modest and rarely reaches three, even at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Pumas have the better head-to-head record and away results, while Puebla have won only once at home.
- Puebla home split: 1W-3D-2L
- Pumas away split: 3W-1D-5L
- Pumas unbeaten in last five head-to-head (4W-1D)
- Puebla last six: 0W-3D-3L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Pumas UNAMEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Puebla rarely lead at the break and usually concede first-half goals, so Pumas are well placed to avoid a half-time deficit.
- Puebla first-half goals for 0.47, against 1.13
- Puebla no first-half wins in last six (3D-3L)
- Pumas last six first halves: 1W-3D-2L
- Puebla home first-half goals for 0.33, against 1.00
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Pumas UNAMEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams' home/away goal environments sit just below four goals per game.
- Puebla home matches average 2.83 total goals
- Pumas away matches average 2.89 total goals
- Last five head-to-head averaged 2.6 total goals
- Puebla overall matches average 3.2 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both sides score regularly and neither has kept clean sheets in the relevant home or away split.
- Puebla scored in 10 of 15 matches
- Pumas scored in 9 of 15 matches
- Puebla home clean sheets: 0/6
- Pumas away clean sheets: 0/9
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams' first-half profiles point to at least one goal, especially with Puebla conceding early.
- Puebla first-half goals for 0.47, against 1.13
- Pumas first-half goals for 0.53, against 0.67
- Recent first-half goal in 9 of combined 12 matches
- Puebla first-half against average 1.13
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Puebla's scoring output is modest and rarely reaches three, even at home.
- Puebla overall goals-for average 1.20
- Puebla home goals-for average 1.17
- Puebla scored 3+ once in last six; five of six at 0-2
- Pumas away goals-against average 1.78
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPuebla under 2.5Estimated chance84%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams' matches produce around ten or more corners, with Puebla's home games especially busy.
- Puebla home total corners average 11.83
- Pumas away total corners average 9.67
- Puebla recent 5/6 matches over 9.5 corners
- Pumas recent 5/6 matches over 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average comfortably above eight shots on target.
- Puebla matches average 8.93 total shots on target
- Pumas matches average 8.20 total shots on target
- Recent combined matches average 8.67 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance63%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L2-3PueblavU.N.A.M. - PumasFeb 14, 2026LIG

D0-0U.N.A.M. - PumasvPueblaAug 24, 2025LIG

L1-3PueblavU.N.A.M. - PumasMar 8, 2025LIG

L1-0U.N.A.M. - PumasvPueblaSep 18, 2024LIG

L3-0U.N.A.M. - PumasvPueblaFeb 11, 2024LIG

Pumas UNAM unbeaten in 5 meetingsPumas UNAM: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga MX 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16-21	16	LLDDL
12	Pumas UNAM	14	4	5	5	20-23	17	DLWDL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Puebla

L3-4AtlasOct 25LIG

L1-4MonterreyOct 22LIG

D0-0Club TijuanaOct 17LIG

D1-1LeonOct 10LIG

L0-1Tigres UANLSep 27LIG

D1-1Atlante FCSep 19LIG

L0-1TolucaSep 16LIG

W1-0NecaxaSep 12LIG

L0-2Club AmericaAug 30LIG

W3-2Santos LagunaAug 23LIG

W3-2CF PachucaAug 18LIG

L2-3San DiegoAug 13LEA

L0-3AustinAug 10LEA

L2-5Portland TimbersAug 7LEA

D1-1Guadalajara ChivasAug 1LIG

Pumas UNAM

D1-1Tigres UANLOct 25LIG

L0-2Santos LagunaOct 22LIG

W2-1Atlante FCOct 17LIG

D3-3Cruz AzulOct 12LIG

L2-3Atletico San LuisSep 27LIG

D1-1AtlasSep 19LIG

L0-3Guadalajara ChivasSep 14LIG

W3-1LeonSep 11LIG

L0-2Club TijuanaAug 29LIG

D1-1NecaxaAug 24LIG

D0-0Club QueretaroAug 16LIG

L0-2FC CincinnatiAug 8LEA

L0-3CharlotteAug 5LEA

W5-1FC JuarezAug 1LIG

W2-1TolucaJul 22LIG

Squad & Injuries

Puebla

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Pumas UNAM

33 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Draw or Pumas UNAM

Under 3.5

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw or Pumas UNAM

Puebla under 2.5

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Puebla

Pumas UNAM

Squad & Injuries

Puebla

Pumas UNAM