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Predictions graded

Puebla1Monterrey4

HT 0–3Thu 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 12–14On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 2–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Puebla are five league games without a win and a point behind Monterrey, who have won four of the last five meetings but only one of five away in the league this season.

A tight, low-scoring night looks likeliest. Puebla or Draw at 2.00, Under 2.5 goals at 2.05, Under 0.5 first-half goals at 3.00, the draw at 3.80 and a level first half at 2.30 all carry an edge; Monterrey at 1.75 does not.

Context

Puebla went into the Tijuana trip without the same three players, and Tuesday's session produced only a partial change: Velasco trained normally but is unlikely to play, while Baltazar and Sanabria are still recovering. Espinoza has therefore been patching the same midfield holes for a third consecutive league match, which narrows what he can change in a midweek round. The counterweight is timing rather than severity — Velasco is back in full work, so his return is close, and Puebla's stated aim of six points from this double week depends on managing those minutes carefully rather than rushing him.
- Puebla trained at Club Alpha 3 on Tuesday with Kevin Velasco back with the first-team group, while Carlos Baltazar and Sergio Sanabria continued their recovery work.
- It looks complicated for Velasco to have minutes on Wednesday; Baltazar and Sanabria are unlikely to be available for the Jornada 13 game against Monterrey.
- The same three players were already absent from Puebla's squad for the Jornada 12 trip to Tijuana on 16 October.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest
A one-point gap after 12 rounds makes this a direct swing in the playoff race rather than a routine home date, and both squads have spoken about the two games of this round as a single block. Monterrey arrive off a 2-1 win over Pachuca, while Puebla have drawn three and lost two of their last five league matches, so the same fixture asks different questions of each bench. The limitation is that the table is compressed and a single result rarely settles qualification, so this shapes how the teams approach the night more than it predicts the outcome.
- Puebla have 16 points and Monterrey 17 after 12 rounds of the Apertura 2026.
- Puebla defender Fernando Monárrez said the goal is to take the six points on offer across the midweek double round to stay in the fight for a Liguilla place.
- The fixture sits in a Jornada 13 that is split across Tuesday and Wednesday.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:53 · Europe/BucharestGoal.com: Puebla vs Monterrey Jornada 13 fixture detailswww.goal.com · 20 Oct 2026
Six goals at the Cuauhtémoc is the counterweight to Puebla's recent low-scoring league run and to any read that this stays under 2.5. It is one meeting rather than a pattern: the other four of the last five between the clubs produced three goals or fewer.
- Monterrey won 4-2 away to Puebla on 30 August 2025 in Liga MX.
- Both teams scored and the match produced six goals.
That Tijuana night is the clearest picture of Puebla's five-game winless league run: 23 shots faced, 12 corners conceded and only three shots on target of their own. It suggests Monterrey will get chances at the Cuauhtémoc even if Puebla stay compact. The counterweight is that the 0-0 still counted as a point.
- Puebla drew 0-0 away to Club Tijuana on 17 October 2026 in Liga MX.
- Puebla took seven shots to Tijuana's 23 and three corners to Tijuana's 12.
- Puebla had three shots on target to Tijuana's six.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's head-to-head record and Puebla's winless run point to the visitors.
- Monterrey have won four of the last five meetings, including 2-1 in April.
- Monterrey have scored in 11 of 14 matches and average 1.57 goals.
- Puebla are winless in five league matches, drawing three and losing two.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMonterreyEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Low first-half totals and Puebla's blank starts make a level half likely.
- Puebla's home matches average 1.0 first-half goal in total.
- Monterrey's away matches average 1.33 first-half goals in total.
- Puebla have not scored a first-half goal in their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals are modest, and Monterrey have rarely added after the break.
- Puebla's home matches average 1.4 second-half goals in total.
- Monterrey's away matches average 1.5 second-half goals in total.
- Monterrey scored one second-half goal in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Puebla's home matches have repeatedly finished level. Monterrey's head-to-head record and Puebla's winless run point to the visitors.
- Puebla have drawn three of five home matches.
- Puebla have drawn three of their last six matches.
- Monterrey have won four of the last five meetings, including 2-1 in April.
- Monterrey have scored in 11 of 14 matches and average 1.57 goals.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MonterreyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half totals and Puebla's blank starts make a level half likely. Monterrey's recent first-half scoring and Puebla's blank starts favor the visitors at the break.
- Puebla's home matches average 1.0 first-half goal in total.
- Monterrey's away matches average 1.33 first-half goals in total.
- Monterrey scored first-half goals in four of their last six matches.
- Monterrey average 0.5 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or MonterreyEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Puebla's recent league games have been low-scoring, with three blanks in five.
- Puebla's last five league matches produced six goals in total.
- Puebla failed to score in three of those five matches.
- Monterrey's last six matches average 2.33 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both sides have regularly conceded, and Puebla's home games often had goals for each team.
- Puebla's five home matches had both teams scoring in four.
- Monterrey's 14 matches had both teams scoring in nine.
- Monterrey conceded in 11 of 14 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monterrey's recent first-half scoring makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Monterrey scored first-half goals in four of their last six matches.
- Monterrey's away matches average 1.33 first-half goals in total.
- Puebla's home matches average 1.0 first-half goal in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second-half scoring has been modest enough to keep the total below two.
- Monterrey scored one second-half goal in their last six matches.
- Puebla scored three second-half goals in their last six.
- Puebla's home matches average 1.4 second-half goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puebla's home games and Monterrey's away games both put the total around twelve.
- Puebla's home matches average 12.2 corners in total (5.0 for, 7.2 against).
- Monterrey's away matches average 11.2 corners in total (7.0 for, 4.2 against).
- Puebla's last six matches averaged 12.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
All four venue and recent shot averages fall below thirty.
- Puebla's home matches average 28.0 shots in total.
- Monterrey's away matches average 26.2 shots in total.
- Monterrey's last six matches averaged 25.0 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 29.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Puebla's recent matches have stayed below ten shots on target, pulling the combined count down.
- Puebla's last six matches averaged 7.2 shots on target.
- Puebla's home matches average 8.8 shots on target in total.
- Monterrey's away matches average 9.2 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L2-1MonterreyvPueblaApr 22, 2026LIG

L2-4PueblavMonterreyAug 30, 2025LIG

D1-1MonterreyvPueblaJan 13, 2025LIG

L1-2PueblavMonterreyAug 17, 2024LIG

L2-0MonterreyvPueblaJan 14, 2024LIG

Monterrey unbeaten in 5 meetings3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga MX 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12-13	16	DDLDL
8	Monterrey Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	11	5	2	4	19-16	17	WDLWD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Puebla

D0-0Club TijuanaOct 17LIG

D1-1LeonOct 10LIG

L0-1Tigres UANLSep 27LIG

D1-1Atlante FCSep 19LIG

L0-1TolucaSep 16LIG

W1-0NecaxaSep 12LIG

L0-2Club AmericaAug 30LIG

W3-2Santos LagunaAug 23LIG

W3-2CF PachucaAug 18LIG

L2-3San DiegoAug 13LEA

L0-3AustinAug 10LEA

L2-5Portland TimbersAug 7LEA

D1-1Guadalajara ChivasAug 1LIG

L1-2Cruz AzulJul 22LIG

W1-0FC JuarezJul 18LIG

Monterrey

W2-1CF PachucaOct 19LIG

D1-1Club AmericaOct 11LIG

W2-1TolucaOct 3FRI

L2-4Atlante FCSep 26LIG

W1-0Cruz AzulSep 20LIG

D0-0Tigres UANLSep 13LIG

L0-2TolucaSep 7LEA

L1-3Atletico San LuisAug 31LIG

W2-1Chicago FireAug 26LEA

L0-2LeonAug 22LIG

W6-1FC JuarezAug 16LIG

W2-1Nashville SCAug 13LEA

W2-1Inter MiamiAug 9LEA

L1-2Orlando City SCAug 5LEA

W2-0AtlasAug 2LIG

Squad & Injuries

Puebla

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Monterrey

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders15

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Puebla or Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Draw

Yes

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Puebla

Monterrey

Squad & Injuries

Puebla

Monterrey