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Predictions graded

Groningen0Emmen2

HT 0–1Thu 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 19–3On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest

The first-round cup tie at Euroborg pits Eredivisie hosts Groningen against an Emmen side that has scored in 11 of 12 competitive games.

Groningen should have enough at home, but two home defeats already this season keep the tie open. The one price worth taking is Emmen to score at least once at 1.43; the other quoted selections do not justify their odds.

Context

That mix makes Groningen dangerous going forward without suggesting control. They conceded in four of the five home games and averaged 2.2 against, so home advantage has not meant clean wins. That defensive record leaves a route for an Emmen side that has scored in five of six away games.
- Groningen played five home competitive matches between 9 August and 18 October 2026.
- They scored in all five and averaged 2.2 goals for and 2.2 against.
- Their home record in that span was two wins, one draw and two defeats, with one clean sheet.
The fixture is set for Thursday 29 October at 21:00 local time in Groningen and is a first-round cup tie. That establishes the competition setting and home venue for this meeting. It does not provide evidence of a selection, fitness or tactical change for either side.
- FC Groningen play FC Emmen at home in the first round of the Eurojackpot KNVB Beker on Thursday 29 October at 21:00.
- The fixture is listed at Euroborg.
- FC Groningen's KNVB Beker page carried an FC Groningen–FC Emmen fixture entry dated 26 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 22:54 · Europe/BucharestFC Groningen KNVB Beker fixture pagewww.fcgroningen.nl · 26 Oct 2026
On 30 September, Emmen set their Den Bosch fixture for Sunday 1 November at 14:30 rather than the Friday immediately after this cup match. The change removes a next-day league commitment and gives the squad a longer turnaround after travelling to Groningen. It does not itself establish any immediate rotation plan or availability change for the cup tie.
- Emmen's Den Bosch fixture was moved from Friday 30 October to Sunday 1 November at 14:30.
- The change was made because of Emmen's KNVB Beker match against Groningen.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 22:54 · Europe/Bucharest
The game produced five goals, which fits the scoring numbers around both teams. It was a friendly, though, so the result carries less weight than a competitive meeting. It should be treated as recent context, not proof that this cup tie will follow the same pattern.
- Groningen beat Emmen 3-2 on 11 July 2026 in a Friendlies Clubs match.
- Groningen were the home team and Emmen the away team.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 72.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both sides have high-scoring records and Groningen's home games have regularly produced three or more goals.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Groningen or Draw

1.15fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 87%

−14.0ppshort

Groningen have home advantage and a better level of opposition, so avoiding defeat is the more likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 64.5%

−0.5ppshort

Groningen concede regularly while Emmen have scored in almost every competitive match.

Home Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Lean

Groningen over 1.5

1.36fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 73.5%

−12.5ppshort

Groningen's home scoring rate makes two goals a reasonable target against an Emmen side that concedes.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Groningen have home advantage and a better level of opposition, so avoiding defeat is the more likely outcome.
- Groningen are a tier above Emmen and are at home.
- Groningen are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head meetings, with three wins and two draws.
- Groningen's home record is two wins, one draw and two defeats in five.
- Emmen's away record is three wins, one draw and two defeats in six.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGroningen or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Emmen have found the net consistently and Groningen have rarely kept clean sheets.
- Emmen have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches and in 5 of 6 away games.
- Groningen have conceded in 9 of 10 competitive matches and in 4 of 5 home games.
- Groningen have kept only one clean sheet in 10 matches.
- Emmen average 2.17 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonEmmen over 0.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both sides have high-scoring records and Groningen's home games have regularly produced three or more goals.
- Groningen average 2.4 goals for and 2.1 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Emmen average 2.17 for and 1.58 against in 12 competitive matches.
- Five of Groningen's last six matches and three of Emmen's last six went over 2.5 goals.
- Groningen have both scored in 9 of 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams' recent first halves have usually produced a goal, and Groningen start games actively.
- Groningen average 1.5 first-half goals for and 1.0 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Groningen's last six matches all had at least one first-half goal.
- Emmen's last six matches had a first-half goal in five of six.
- Emmen average 0.83 first-half goals for and 0.67 against in 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Groningen concede regularly while Emmen have scored in almost every competitive match.
- Groningen have both scored in 9 of 10 competitive matches and 4 of 5 home games.
- Emmen have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches and 5 of 6 away games.
- Groningen have kept only one clean sheet in 10 matches.
- Emmen have kept two clean sheets in six away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Groningen's home scoring rate makes two goals a reasonable target against an Emmen side that concedes.
- Groningen average 2.2 goals per home match and scored in all five home games.
- Emmen concede 2.0 goals per away match and kept two clean sheets in six away games.
- Groningen's last three home matches produced 2, 3 and 2 goals.
- Emmen lost 3-1 at Eindhoven in their most recent away defeat.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGroningen over 1.5Estimated chance61%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot volumes point to a game around or below the line despite Groningen's home attacking.
- Groningen average 30.3 total shots per match: 14.4 for and 15.9 against.
- Emmen average 27.9 total shots per match: 17.25 for and 10.67 against.
- Emmen's away matches average 26.0 total shots.
- Ten of the last 12 combined recent matches stayed under 31.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 31.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's shots-on-target numbers are high enough to make the over line favoured.
- Groningen average 11.7 total shots on target per match: 5.5 for and 6.2 against.
- Groningen's home split averages 10.4 total shots on target: 4.6 for and 5.8 against.
- Emmen average 11.42 total shots on target per match and 10.33 away.
- Ten of the last 12 combined recent matches stayed under 12.5 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Average corner totals sit just below the line, though recent matches are mixed.
- Groningen average 9.8 total corners per match and 9.4 at home.
- Emmen average 10.08 total corners per match and 10.17 away.
- Groningen's last six total corners: 13, 11, 9, 11, 9, 10.
- Emmen's last six total corners: 16, 11, 6, 10, 15, 5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

3W · 2D · 0W

W3-2GroningenvEmmenJul 11, 2026FRI

W3-2GroningenvEmmenJul 20, 2024FRI

W0-3EmmenvGroningenApr 1, 2024EER

D0-0GroningenvEmmenOct 23, 2023EER

D1-1GroningenvEmmenJul 29, 2023FRI

Groningen unbeaten in 5 meetingsGroningen: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Groningen

D2-2NEC NijmegenOct 25ERE

L2-5AjaxOct 18ERE

W5-1ExcelsiorOct 11ERE

W3-0PEC ZwolleSep 18ERE

D1-1GO Ahead EaglesSep 12ERE

D2-2TwenteSep 6ERE

L2-3Fortuna SittardAug 28ERE

L1-5PSV EindhovenAug 23ERE

W4-1ADO Den HaagAug 16ERE

W2-1UtrechtAug 9ERE

W1-0ValladolidAug 1FRI

D0-0Volos NFCJul 25FRI

L0-4FC VolendamJul 24FRI

L1-2AEK Athens FCJul 18FRI

W3-2EmmenJul 11FRI

Emmen

W2-0VitesseOct 23EER

W2-1Almere City FCOct 17EER

W3-0DordrechtOct 9EER

D1-1WaalwijkOct 3EER

W1-0FC OSSSep 26EER

L1-3FC EindhovenSep 18EER

L1-2De GraafschapSep 11EER

W5-3FC VolendamSep 4EER

L0-4VVV VenloAug 30EER

W3-1Jong AZAug 21EER

W6-4Jong AjaxAug 17EER

W1-0RodaAug 7EER

W4-0Almere City FCAug 1FRI

L0-3TwenteJul 24FRI

L0-2HeraclesJul 17FRI

Squad & Injuries

Groningen

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper5

Emmen

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Emmen over 0.5

Over 2.5

Groningen or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Groningen over 1.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Groningen

Emmen

Squad & Injuries

Groningen

Emmen