Fulham0Crystal Palace1

HT 0–1Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 14–4On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 9–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 04:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Palace have won four of the last five meetings, yet Fulham's home volume of 19.6 shots and 7.2 corners per game points the other way.

Fulham avoiding defeat is the likeliest single result, but at 1.25 the price offers nothing. Fulham over 4.5 corners at 1.48 is about right, and no other quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Palace scored three away from home in that game, the clearest counterweight to Fulham's strong home figures this season. It was a league match rather than a cup tie, so selection may differ, but the scoreline shows Palace can hurt Fulham at Craven Cottage. Five goals also make it the reference point for anyone weighing a high-scoring night.
- Crystal Palace won 3-2 at Fulham in the Premier League on 5 September 2026.
- The match produced five goals, three of them for the away side.
That is the clearest single example of the home profile behind Fulham's 7.2 corners per home match. They also won 1-0 at Coventry on 24 October, so the recent run is two clean sheets in two. Palace's away numbers of 2.5 corners and 9.67 shots per game suggest a side that may sit deeper and invite exactly that pressure.
- Fulham beat Hull City 1-0 at home in the Premier League on 17 October 2026.
- Fulham took 10 corners and 18 shots, and Hull recorded no shots on target.
It was the heaviest result in Palace's recent record and came three days after a 3-2 Europa League defeat at Lyon. They followed it with a 2-2 draw at Beşiktaş on 22 October, so the response was a point rather than a collapse. Fulham's 19.6 shots per home match is the sort of volume that could test the same defence.
- Crystal Palace lost 5-0 at Brighton in the Premier League on 18 October 2026.
- Palace had one shot on target; Brighton had nine.
The away numbers are the weaker half of a season record of four wins, two draws and six defeats in twelve competitive matches. Palace also take 2.5 corners per away match while conceding 4.83, which is precisely where Fulham's home corner volume meets them. Their 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest on 11 October shows the attacking side exists, but it has travelled less well.
- Crystal Palace's away record is 1W-2D-3L in six matches, from 22 August to 22 October 2026.
- Palace average 9.67 shots, 2.5 corners and 2.33 goals conceded per away match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Fulham or Draw

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

−18.0ppshort

Fulham's home record and slightly better overall results give them a solid route to avoid defeat.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

−7.0ppshort

Both teams' corner profiles point to a match total above 8.5.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 62.5%

−6.5ppshort

The head-to-head record and Palace's away defending support a higher-scoring game.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

−6.7ppshort

The recent head-to-head pattern and both teams' scoring records make a shared scoreline plausible.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Fulham's home record and slightly better overall results give them a solid route to avoid defeat.
- Fulham are 2W-1D-2L at home in the sample.
- Crystal Palace are 1W-2D-3L away.
- Fulham's overall record is 4W-2D-4L against Palace's 4W-2D-6L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFulham or DrawEstimated chance62%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The head-to-head record and Palace's away defending support a higher-scoring game.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads produced 3+ goals.
- Palace's away goals-against average is 2.33 in six matches.
- Fulham average 1.8 goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
The recent head-to-head pattern and both teams' scoring records make a shared scoreline plausible.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads had both teams scoring.
- Fulham's home matches had both teams scoring in 3 of 5.
- Palace's away matches had both teams scoring in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Fulham's home first-half scoring and Palace's away first-half concessions point to an early goal.
- Fulham average 1.2 first-half goals at home.
- Palace concede 1.5 first-half goals away.
- Palace average only 0.17 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%

Match stats2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Fulham generate plenty of home corner volume and Palace concede corners on the road.
- Fulham average 7.2 corners at home in five matches.
- Palace concede 4.83 corners away in six matches.
- Fulham took 10 corners in a recent home win over Hull City.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonFulham over 4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' corner profiles point to a match total above 8.5.
- Fulham average 6.3 corners and concede 4.3.
- Palace average 3.5 corners and concede 5.08.
- Fulham's home corner average plus Palace's away corner average is about 9.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fulham's high home shot volume and Palace's away shot concessions support a busy match.
- Fulham average 19.6 shots at home.
- Palace average 9.7 shots away.
- Palace's away opponents average 14.5 shots, while Fulham's home opponents average 13.4.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 26.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The limited first-half corner data still leans toward Fulham creating enough early volume.
- Fulham average 3.67 first-half corners overall.
- Fulham had 7 first-half corners in one home match.
- Palace average 1.67 first-half corners and concede 1.67.
BetBugs · 1st Half CornerslostOver 3.5 corners in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent card counts and the cup tie setting give a reasonable case for over 3.5 cards.
- Palace's last six matches averaged about 4.2 total cards.
- Fulham average 2.0 yellow cards; Palace average 1.45.
- Recent Palace matches produced total card counts of 6, 3, 3, 4, 4 and 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%