Tolima0Deportivo Pasto1

HT 0–1Mon 26 Oct 2026, 01:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 72%–28%ShotsShots 18–11On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 9–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Tolima's home solidity against a Pasto side that has scored twice in six matches points to a low-scoring night, with a home win or draw the likeliest result — but 1.08 for Tolima to win or draw offers nothing.

The 1.40 on fewer than two first-half goals is the one quoted price that holds up.

Context

Tolima won the latest home meeting in the series without conceding.
A single goal decided that 9 May 2026 meeting, and Pasto's recent run of two goals in six matches suggests another tight game is plausible. It also shows Tolima do not need a big scoring day to take this fixture. One result from five months ago is thin evidence on its own.
- 9 May 2026, Primera A: Deportes Tolima 1-0 Deportivo Pasto at home.
That scoring rate of 0.73 per match is the backdrop to any low-goals case here. Four clean sheets in the same span show a low-event side rather than a porous one. The counterweight is that Tolima have conceded five goals across their last two matches. The 15-match sample is modest and covers only what was available before kickoff.
- Window: 29 July 2026 to 23 October 2026, 15 competitive matches tracked.
- 8 goals scored, 11 conceded, 5 matches with both teams scoring, 4 clean sheets.
Table position and current run pull in opposite directions, so the standings flatter the visitors more than their recent results do. Tolima's edge is venue-specific: seven wins, two draws and one loss at home, with 19 goals scored and seven conceded in ten home league games. Pasto's away league record of four wins, two draws and three defeats with 15 goals shows they travel reasonably. Tolima's last five league games: three draws, two defeats.
- Primera A standings fetched 25 October 2026: Tolima 6th, 31 points, form LLDDD; Pasto 3rd, 34 points, form LLDLW.
- Tolima home league record: 10 played, 7 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost, 19 goals for, 7 against.
- Pasto away league record: 9 played, 4 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost, 15 goals for, 17 against.
That home split is the basis for any case for more than 7.5 corners, since Tolima generate the volume themselves. Pasto's away corner numbers in the same window are much lower, so an over depends on the hosts' share holding rather than on an end-to-end game. Recent Pasto matches have also produced low corner totals, which is the risk. Seven home matches is a small sample.
- Home split, 7 matches tracked: 7.57 corners for, 2.43 corners against per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo Pasto under 1.5

1.13fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88.5%

−18.5ppshort

Pasto's recent scoring output is very low, and Tolima's home defense has been solid enough to limit them to at most one.

Home Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tolima over 0.5

1.13fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 88.5%

−12.5ppshort

Tolima have a strong home scoring record and have found the net in both recent home meetings with Pasto.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 3.5

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

−2.5ppshort

Both teams have low overall goal averages and Pasto's attack has been especially quiet.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 7.5

1.48fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 67.6%

−3.6ppshort

Tolima's home corner volume is high and Pasto's away corner totals are modest, making the 7.5 line reachable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Tolima's home record and recent home H2H wins make a home win or draw the most likely match outcome.
- Tolima's league home record is 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Tolima beat Pasto 1-0 and 2-0 in their last two home H2H meetings.
- Pasto's recent form is LLDLW and they lost 0-3 at Nacional in their latest match.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostTolima or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and Pasto rarely score before the break.
- Tolima first-half goals for/against average 0.33/0.53 across 15 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto first-half goals for/against average 0.47/0.80 across 15 matches.
- Pasto have scored 0 first-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Pasto's recent scoring output is very low, and Tolima's home defense has been solid enough to limit them to at most one.
- Pasto average 0.73 goals per match overall in the 15-match window.
- Pasto have scored 2 goals in their last six matches, blanking in four.
- Tolima's home record shows 7 goals conceded in 10 home games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDeportivo Pasto under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Tolima have a strong home scoring record and have found the net in both recent home meetings with Pasto.
- Tolima's league home record: 19 goals in 10 home games.
- Tolima beat Pasto 1-0 and 2-0 in their last two home H2H meetings.
- Tolima scored in four of their last six matches but were blanked twice.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTolima over 0.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams have low overall goal averages and Pasto's attack has been especially quiet.
- Tolima average 1.00 goal for and 1.33 against in the 15-match window.
- Pasto average 0.73 for and 1.53 against in the 15-match window.
- Pasto have kept clean sheets in 4 of 15 matches and both teams scored in only 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Tolima's home corner volume is high and Pasto's away corner totals are modest, making the 7.5 line reachable.
- Tolima average 6.07 corners for and 3.20 against; at home the split is 7.57 for and 2.43 against.
- Pasto average 4.08 corners for and 3.69 against; away split is 3.17 for and 4.33 against.
- Tolima's last two home matches produced 10 and 11 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot-on-target averages sit near or above the line, and recent match totals support over 7.5.
- Tolima average 5.20 shots on target for and 3.67 against; home split is 6.29 for and 2.43 against.
- Pasto average 2.77 shots on target for and 4.85 against; away split is 2.67 for and 5.33 against.
- Tolima's last six produced 7+ total shots on target in five; Pasto's in four.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow-card averages are close to the 5.5 line and recent matches have regularly reached six or more.
- Tolima average 2.80 yellow cards and 2.27 for opponents; Pasto average 2.92 and 2.85 for opponents.
- Tolima's last six match card totals include 6, 6, 11 and 5; Pasto's include 6 and 6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance56%