Deportivo Pasto0Alianza Valledupar1

HT 0–1Tue 20 Oct 2026, 01:05 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 12–6On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 18:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Pasto begin under new coach Diego Merino at home to an Alianza side expected to be without suspended forward Misael Martínez.

The table makes Pasto favourites, but they have won once in their last eight home league games, and 1.70 on a home win asks more than that form justifies. Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 and a goalless first half at 2.63 are the two prices that hold up.

Context

Pasto announced Merino on 12 October and presented him to media and supporters on 14 October, less than a week before his first match in charge. His opening session used resistance bands for defensive coordination, so the shape should differ from the 0-0 draw with Fortaleza on 4 October. Merino's only prior Colombian top-flight spell, with La Equidad in 2025, produced two wins from 14 games and a last-place finish, making the appointment a genuine unknown. Pasto had already moved from Jonathan Risueño to René Rosero this semester, so the squad is adapting to a third coaching voice in weeks.
- Deportivo Pasto announced Diego Merino as new head coach on 12 October 2026 and presented him and his staff on 14 October.
- Merino, 38, previously coached La Equidad in the Colombian top flight in 2025, winning two of 14 matches.
- His first training session on 13 October focused on defensive coordination.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Martínez scored the goal that began Alianza's late fightback against Águilas Doradas on 10 October, then collected a second yellow in the same passage of play and was sent off in the 90th minute. The resulting one-match ban points to his absence at Pasto, narrowing the attacking options in a side that had just clawed back a two-goal deficit. Referee Wilmar Montaño issued the second caution for simulation before the VAR awarded Alianza a penalty, and El Var Central judged the card harsh, but simulation is not a reviewable offence, so the dismissal stands. Whether it is served in this exact fixture depends on the league calendar between 10 and 20 October.
- Misael Martínez received a second yellow for simulation and was sent off in the 90th minute of Alianza Valledupar's 2-2 draw with Águilas Doradas on 10 October 2026.
- Referee Wilmar Montaño showed the card before the VAR awarded Alianza a penalty, which Jesús Figueroa converted at 90+9.
- The dismissal carries an automatic one-match suspension.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Four of the five meetings since March 2024 produced two goals or fewer, including the 0-0 on 1 April 2026 and 1-0 wins in each direction. The exception was a 3-3 at Pasto on 5 October 2025, so the fixture has opened up before. That pattern points to another tight, low-scoring meeting.
- 1 April 2026, Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 0-0 Deportivo Pasto.
- 5 October 2025, Primera A: Deportivo Pasto 3-3 Alianza Valledupar, the only one of the last five meetings with more than two goals.
- Three of the last five meetings were drawn; the other two, on 15 April 2025 and 30 September 2024, finished 1-0.
Pasto scored four goals in eight home league matches in the tracked window, an average of 0.5 per game, and conceded 1.5. They kept two clean sheets and both teams scored in three of those eight. The sample is small — 22 July to 4 October 2026 — but one win in eight home games makes this a difficult home fixture to read.
- 8 home league matches tracked from 22 July to 4 October 2026: 1 win, 1 draw, 6 defeats.
- 4 goals scored and 6 conceded at home in that window, an average of 0.5 for and 1.5 against per game.
- Two clean sheets in those 8 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Deportivo Pasto

1.70fair 2.44

BetBugs 41% · Market 58.8%

−17.8ppshort

Pasto sit far higher in the table and are at home against a side with a poor away record, making the home win the single most likely result.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.70
The read
Pasto sit far higher in the table and are at home against a side with a poor away record, making the home win the single most likely result.
- Pasto last 15: 3W 3D 9L; the same window at home is 1W 1D 6L
- Alianza away window: 2W 0D 4L, 5 goals in 6 games
- Season table: Pasto 3rd on 34 points, Alianza 17th on 17
- Three of the last five meetings were draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo PastoEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team scores much before the break, so the first half is most likely to end level.
- Pasto first-half goals at home: 0.25 for, 0.75 against
- Alianza first-half goals away: 0.5 for, 0.83 against
- Pasto did not score in the first half of their last three home games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is limited for both sides, so the half is often shared.
- Pasto second-half goals at home: 0.25 for, 0.75 against
- Alianza second-half goals away: 0.33 for, 0.83 against
- Both teams score most of their goals in the second half of matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto sit far higher in the table and are at home against a side with a poor away record, making the home win the single most likely result. Alianza have found away wins recently while Pasto keep conceding at home, so an away victory is a real possibility.
- Pasto last 15: 3W 3D 9L; the same window at home is 1W 1D 6L
- Alianza away window: 2W 0D 4L, 5 goals in 6 games
- Alianza won 2 of 6 away games in the recent window
- Alianza won away at Chico and Jaguares in September
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDeportivo Pasto or Alianza ValleduparEstimated chance71%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both sides score little and recent meetings have been tight and low-scoring, pointing to fewer than three goals.
- Pasto at home: 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game
- Alianza away: 0.83 scored and 1.67 conceded per game
- Four of the last five head-to-heads finished under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto have defended better lately and Alianza score little on the road, so one side may be shut out.
- Pasto kept three clean sheets in their last six games
- Alianza away scoring average is 0.83 per game
- Pasto home: both teams scored in only 3 of 8
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto's home scoring is very low and they have not managed two goals in any recent home outing.
- Pasto scored 4 goals in 8 home games
- Home goals-for average is 0.5 per game
- Pasto scored at most once in each of their last three home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonDeportivo Pasto under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alianza's away scoring is thin and Pasto have been keeping opponents out recently.
- Alianza scored 5 goals in 6 away games in the window
- Away goals-for average is 0.83 per game
- Pasto kept three clean sheets in their last six games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAlianza Valledupar under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pasto concede regularly at home and Alianza usually find at least one goal on their travels.
- Pasto kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home games
- Pasto concede 1.5 goals per home game
- Alianza scored 5 goals in 6 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlianza Valledupar to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alianza have conceded in every away game in the window, so Pasto are likely to score at least once.
- Alianza kept no clean sheets in 6 away games
- Alianza concede 1.67 goals per away game
- Pasto scored in 4 of 8 home games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Pasto to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal numbers suggest at least one goal before the break is more likely than not.
- Pasto home first-half total: 1.0 goals per game
- Alianza away first-half total: 1.33 goals per game
- Alianza's latest match produced two first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' corner numbers point to a total hovering around the line, with the away side drawing plenty.
- Pasto home corners: 5.0 for, 3.5 against
- Alianza away corners: 4.0 for, 5.4 against
- Combined corner averages sit between 8.5 and 9.5 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot counts add up above the line, with Pasto's home games especially busy.
- Pasto home total shots: 12.0 for, 13.8 against
- Alianza away total shots: 10.6 for, 11.4 against
- Combined shot averages run between 23 and 26 per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Opponents regularly test Pasto's goal, pushing the combined shots-on-target count above the line.
- Pasto home shots on target: 2.8 for, 5.0 against
- Alianza away shots on target: 4.2 for, 4.2 against
- Combined shots on target average close to 8 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance66%