Liverpool2Brighton0

HT 2–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 13–17On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Liverpool have not won any of their three home league games, and Brighton arrive third, unbeaten in five league matches with nine clean sheets in 12 competitive outings.

A Liverpool win or draw still looks the likeliest result, but at 1.38 it asks for more than the form supports. The corner markets are where the prices hold up: over 9.5 corners at 1.65 and Brighton to take more than 3.5 at 1.53.

Context

Szoboszlai's issue followed his limp-off in Liverpool's win over Brentford, while the supplied evidence also names Mitoma within a much wider possible absence list. That could restrict options for both teams in this fixture, particularly if either player is ruled out close to kickoff. The evidence frames the wider list as potential absences rather than final availability, so the exact scale of disruption remains unresolved.
- The supplied current evidence identifies up to 15 possible absences for Liverpool versus Brighton.
- Dominik Szoboszlai and Kaoru Mitoma are among the players named as doubts.
- Szoboszlai left the Brentford match limping and could miss time afterwards.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:34 · Europe/BucharestLiverpool injury newswww.liverpool.com · 24 Oct 2026
Liverpool won the last three at Anfield — 3-0 in the FA Cup in February 2026, 2-0 in December 2025 and 2-1 in November 2024 — and Brighton's two wins in this run came on their own pitch, 3-2 in May 2025 and 2-1 in March 2026. Three of the five were settled by a single goal. The pattern favours the hosts, but the most recent result belongs to Brighton.
- 21 March 2026: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool at the Amex, the fifth straight meeting won by the home side.
- 14 February 2026: Liverpool 3-0 Brighton; 13 December 2025: Liverpool 2-0 Brighton.
- 19 May 2025: Brighton 3-2 Liverpool; 2 November 2024: Liverpool 2-1 Brighton.
Only three of those 12 matches featured a Brighton goal conceded, and they have shut out opponents in five of their last six. The exception is a 3-2 League Cup win at Manchester United on 16 September, so the record is not absolute. Liverpool have scored in nine of their 11 competitive matches, which makes this the stiffest test of the run.
- Brighton's 12 competitive matches from 20 August to 22 October 2026 include nine clean sheets and an average of 0.58 goals conceded.
- Five of their last six competitive matches were clean sheets; the exception was the 3-2 League Cup win at Manchester United on 16 September 2026.
- Their most recent outing, a 0-0 at Jablonec on 22 October 2026, extended the run.
Three home games is a small sample and the record does not name the opponents, so this is a lean rather than a verdict. Liverpool's overall league line of three wins, three draws and one defeat in seven still has them fifth on 12 points. Brighton have two wins from three away league games, scoring ten and conceding four.
- Premier League 2026-27 table, fetched 24 October 2026: Liverpool's home record is three played, no wins, two draws, one defeat, two goals for and five against.
- Liverpool's away record is four played, three wins, one draw, seven goals for and three against.
- Overall: seven played, three wins, three draws, one defeat, nine goals for and eight against, fifth on 12 points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Liverpool or Draw

1.38fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 72.5%

−11.5ppshort

Liverpool's overall record and Anfield head-to-head history make them hard to beat, even if Brighton are in good form.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.14fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 87.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both teams' scoring and conceding rates point to at least two goals, and the recent meetings have all cleared this line.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

−17.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half goal numbers and recent patterns make at least one goal before half-time likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Liverpool's overall record and Anfield head-to-head history make them hard to beat, even if Brighton are in good form.
- Liverpool have one loss in 11 competitive matches (7W 3D 1L).
- Liverpool have won the last three home meetings with Brighton.
- Liverpool's home competitive record is 3W 2D 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool or DrawEstimated chance61%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding rates point to at least two goals, and the recent meetings have all cleared this line.
- Liverpool average 3.64 total goals per competitive match (2.18 for, 1.45 against).
- Brighton average 3.42 total goals per competitive match (2.83 for, 0.58 against).
- All five recent head-to-heads produced at least two goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Brighton have scored consistently and Liverpool have conceded regularly at home, so the away side is likely to find the net.
- Brighton scored in 10 of 12 competitive matches.
- Brighton scored in four of six away matches.
- Liverpool conceded in five of six home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBrighton over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring and conceding numbers support at least two goals after the break.
- Liverpool's second halves average 2.27 total goals (1.36 for, 0.91 against).
- Brighton's away second halves average 1.84 total goals (1.67 for, 0.17 against).
- Liverpool's last six matches had two or more second-half goals in five.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half goal numbers and recent patterns make at least one goal before half-time likely.
- Liverpool average 1.36 first-half goals in their matches (0.82 for, 0.55 against).
- Brighton average 1.92 first-half goals in their matches (1.42 for, 0.50 against).
- Each team has seen a first-half goal in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams' corner profiles and venue splits point to a match with around ten or more corners.
- Liverpool's matches average 10.36 total corners (5.82 for, 4.55 against).
- Brighton's matches average 10.58 total corners (6.75 for, 3.83 against).
- Liverpool's home matches average 11.17 total corners and Brighton's away matches average 10.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Brighton generate healthy corner volume away and Liverpool allow a high number at home.
- Brighton average 6.0 corners in away matches.
- Liverpool concede 5.83 corners at home.
- Brighton took seven corners at Jablonec and five at Sunderland in recent away games.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostBrighton over 3.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Liverpool's home corner output and Brighton's away concession rate make five or more home corners likely.
- Liverpool average 5.33 corners in home matches.
- Brighton concede 4.5 corners in away matches.
- Liverpool took seven, five and five corners in their last three home matches.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostLiverpool over 4.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home/away shot splits point to a total just below this line, despite both teams' overall volume.
- Liverpool average 14.7 shots in home matches.
- Brighton average 19.8 shots in away matches.
- Those venue splits combine for 34.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 37.5Estimated chance57%