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Predictions graded

Aurora Cochabamba1Real Tomayapo0

HT 1–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 21:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Aurora's seven-match unbeaten tracked home run meets Tomayapo's 2W-1D-8L away league record, so the home side is the likely winner in ordinary terms.

The 1.38 match price is not justified, and the 1.11 on Aurora avoiding defeat is short. The only quoted price with a hint of value is Tomayapo to score no more than one goal at 1.20.

Context

The run covers seven home matches in the supplied window and is the current support for Aurora's home strength. It is a seven-match sample, so it should not be read as a season-long guarantee. The contrast with Tomayapo's away league record is the main reason this home run matters for the fixture.
- Aurora's tracked home record from 22 August to 11 October 2026: 7 matches, 4 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses.
- In those seven home matches Aurora averaged 2.0 goals for and 0.86 against.
The most recent meeting at Aurora’s ground ended 2-1 to Tomayapo on 19 September 2025. Its decisive early sequence was Huayhuata’s fourth-minute dismissal and Corulo’s seventh-minute penalty, so it supplies a clear historical reference for this pairing. Pérez and Viviani then scored after half-time, showing that both teams found the net. The match was shaped by an early sending-off, which limits its value as a guide to an otherwise normal rematch.
- Real Tomayapo won 2-1 away to Aurora at Estadio Félix Capriles in Todos contra Todos matchday 21 on 19 September 2025.
- Aurora’s Iván Huayhuata was dismissed in the fourth minute for a foul on Danny Pérez, and Leandro Corulo scored the resulting penalty in the seventh minute.
- Danny Pérez made it 2-0 in the 52nd minute after a rebound from the post, before Leonardo Viviani scored Aurora’s 68th-minute reply from José Verdún’s assist.
- Herlan Salazar refereed the match, Julio Gutiérrez handled VAR, and attendance was approximately 3,000.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/BucharestDiezdiez.bo · 19 Sep 2025El Paíselpais.bo · 19 Sep 2025
Aurora have a recent away win in this pairing.
The 2-0 result is the most recent head-to-head and gives Aurora a positive reference point against Tomayapo. It is still one match, so it should not outweigh the full home-and-away split. For this fixture, it mainly shows Aurora can win on Tomayapo's ground, not that they will repeat it at home.
- On 16 May 2026, Real Tomayapo hosted Aurora in the Primera División and lost 0-2.
- The match is the most recent of the five head-to-head meetings in the supplied record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Aurora Cochabamba

1.38fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 72.5%

−16.5ppshort

Aurora are unbeaten at home in the tracked window and host the league's worst travelling side.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aurora Cochabamba or Draw

1.11fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 90.1%

−11.1ppshort

Two of the three outcomes favour Aurora, who have not lost at home in this window.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

−1.7ppshort

Tomayapo rarely score before the break and Aurora's home first halves are moderate, so a quiet opening is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Aurora are unbeaten at home in the tracked window and host the league's worst travelling side.
- Aurora home league record 4W-5D-1L, 21 goals for and 15 against in 10 games
- Tracked home window: 4W-3D-0L, 2.0 goals for and 0.86 against per game
- Real Tomayapo away league record 2W-1D-8L, 7 scored and 27 conceded in 11
- Table: Aurora 6th on 31 points, Tomayapo 16th on 20
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAurora CochabambaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Two of the three outcomes favour Aurora, who have not lost at home in this window.
- Aurora unbeaten in 7 tracked home matches (4W 3D)
- Only one home league defeat all season in 10 home games
- Tomayapo won just 2 of 11 away league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAurora Cochabamba or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora score regularly at home against a defence that leaks heavily on the road, so a visiting clean sheet is unlikely.
- Aurora scored 21 goals in 10 home league games (2.1 per game)
- Aurora averaged 2.0 goals per tracked home match
- Tomayapo conceded 27 in 11 away league games (2.45 per game)
- Aurora scored in each visible tracked home game (2-2, 2-0, 2-2)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAurora Cochabamba to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Tomayapo's away scoring is the weakest part of their game, so nought or one goal is the likely output.
- Tomayapo scored 7 goals in 11 away league games (0.64 per game)
- Only 4 goals in 7 tracked away matches
- Away first-half goals in the tracked window: 0
- Aurora conceded 0.86 per home game in the tracked window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonReal Tomayapo under 1.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Aurora's home scoring rate against Tomayapo's away leak rate points to at least two home goals.
- Aurora 2.0 goals per tracked home game
- 21 goals in 10 league home games (2.1 per game)
- Tomayapo concede 2.45 per away league game
- Aurora scored 2+ in each visible tracked home match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAurora Cochabamba over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to a match total near three goals.
- Aurora tracked home matches average 2.86 total goals
- Aurora league home games average 3.6 total goals
- Tomayapo league away games average 3.09 total goals
- Only 2 of the last 5 head-to-heads went over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Tomayapo rarely score before the break and Aurora's home first halves are moderate, so a quiet opening is likely.
- Aurora home first half: 0.86 for, 0.71 against per game
- Tomayapo away first half: 0.0 for, 1.29 against per game
- Tomayapo have 4 first-half goals in 15 matches (0.27 per game)
- Both teams' first-half data is available and modest
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches sit around or above six cards per game, with Tomayapo's away games especially busy.
- Aurora matches average 5.17 yellows (2.33 own, 2.83 opponent)
- Tomayapo matches average 6.33 yellows (3.0 own, 3.33 opponent)
- Tomayapo's away game at San Antonio produced 7 yellows and a red
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.38 price requires 72.5%, above our 56.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-2Real TomayapovAuroraMay 16, 2026PRI

W1-2AuroravReal TomayapoSep 19, 2025PRI

D0-0Real TomayapovAuroraMay 4, 2025PRI

L2-1Real TomayapovAuroraDec 13, 2024PRI

D0-0AuroravReal TomayapoAug 26, 2024PRI

Aurora Cochabamba: 3 clean sheetsReal Tomayapo: 2 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Aurora Cochabamba	22	7	10	5	33-30	31	LDLWW
16	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	16-39	20	WDLLL

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Aurora Cochabamba

L0-4Independiente PetroleroOct 20COP

L0-1Real OruroOct 17PRI

D2-2Nacional PotosíOct 11PRI

W2-0ABBOct 7COP

D1-1Real PotosíOct 3COP

D2-2San Antonio Bulo BuloSep 30COP

W1-0ABBSep 25COP

W4-2Universitario de VintoSep 19COP

L1-3GuabiráSep 16PRI

W2-0San Antonio Bulo BuloSep 11PRI

W1-0Real PotosíSep 8COP

W3-0Gualberto Villarroel SJSep 5PRI

D1-1Universitario de VintoSep 1COP

D2-2Always ReadyAug 27PRI

D0-0Real PotosíAug 22PRI

Real Tomayapo

W1-0Gualberto Villarroel SJOct 17PRI

D0-0San Antonio Bulo BuloOct 9PRI

L0-4Real OruroOct 6COP

L0-4Always ReadyOct 3COP

D1-1Nacional PotosíSep 30COP

W2-1Real OruroSep 27COP

L1-5Independiente PetroleroSep 22COP

L0-2Oriente PetroleroSep 17PRI

L1-2BolívarSep 14PRI

W2-0Always ReadySep 10COP

L1-3The StrongestSep 6PRI

L1-5Nacional PotosíSep 3COP

W3-0Independiente PetroleroSep 1COP

W1-0Real PotosíAug 26PRI

D1-1Always ReadyAug 23PRI

Squad & Injuries

Aurora Cochabamba

38 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Real Tomayapo

38 available

Attackers7

Midfielders17

Defenders12

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Real Tomayapo under 1.5

Aurora Cochabamba

Aurora Cochabamba or Draw

Aurora Cochabamba over 1.5

Over 2.5

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Aurora Cochabamba or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Aurora Cochabamba

Real Tomayapo

Squad & Injuries

Aurora Cochabamba

Real Tomayapo