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Aurora Cochabamba2Nacional Potosi2

HT 1–2Sun 11 Oct 2026, 21:15

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 31–19On targetOn target 7–8CornersCorners 12–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Fecha 21 in Cochabamba pits Aurora's one-defeat home league record against a Nacional Potosí side that has won three of the last five meetings.

Aurora carry the stronger home case, but the result is genuinely open. Three quoted prices qualify: Nacional Potosí to win or draw at 2.15, Nacional Potosí to win at 4.00, and the first half to finish level at 2.50. Aurora's 1.67 win price and the goal markets quoted here do not.

Context

Both clubs are in the international-places pack and both have Copa Bolivia quarterfinals from 20 October, though this league fixture comes more than a week earlier. Nacional's coaching change on 25 September adds an unsettled element, and no injury or availability concerns have been reported for either side.

Both sides are in the pack chasing Bolivia's international qualification places, so the Fecha 21 points feed directly into that race. The Strongest can draw level with the 45-point leaders earlier on the same afternoon, meaning the wider table picture is known before the 17:15 kick-off in Cochabamba. A win moves the victor toward the continental spots while the loser can be overtaken. It is a league round rather than a knockout decider, so the consequence is confined to the standings.
- Aurora host Nacional Potosí in Cochabamba on Sunday 11 October at 17:15 local time in Fecha 21 of the División Profesional.
- The fixture is described as a direct duel to move closer to the international qualification places.
- The Strongest could equal the 45 points of the league leaders earlier the same afternoon.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Nacional Potosí replaced Eduardo Villegas with Dayler Gutiérrez on 25 September, after Villegas had spent just over two months in the job. Gutiérrez's first match was the Copa Bolivia fixture against Always Ready, which Nacional won 9-0, the heaviest defeat in Always Ready's history. The side has since secured first place in Copa Bolivia Group B, so the new staff arrives with results behind it. The league trip to Aurora is a fresh test, and a recent appointment can still bring tactical and selection uncertainty.
- Nacional Potosí confirmed the departure of Eduardo Villegas just over two months after his arrival.
- Dayler Gutiérrez replaced him, with his debut set for the Copa Bolivia match against Always Ready.
- That debut finished 9-0, described as the heaviest defeat in Always Ready's history.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Nacional have won three of the last five, Aurora one — 3-1 in Potosí on 14 September 2024 — with the other ending 1-1 in December 2024. The most recent meeting, on 10 July 2026, finished 2-0 to Nacional at home. It is a five-match sample, and Aurora's one league defeat in nine home games this season is the counterweight. The pattern works against treating Aurora's home record as decisive.
- Primera División, 10 July 2026: Nacional Potosí 2-0 Aurora.
- Primera División, 27 September 2025: Aurora 1-2 Nacional Potosí.
- Primera División, 14 September 2024: Nacional Potosí 1-3 Aurora.
- Primera División, 17 December 2024: Aurora 1-1 Nacional Potosí.
In the 2026 league season Nacional are 6-1-3 at home and 2-2-6 away from Potosí, with 12 scored and 14 conceded in those ten away matches. Across 20 league games they are 8-3-9 for 30 scored and 28 conceded, leaving them ninth on 27 points. The smaller tracked away sample across all competitions reads 3-2-2 in seven, so the road record is not uniformly poor. The league split is the more relevant comparison for this trip to Cochabamba.
- 2026 Primera División, Nacional Potosí away: 2W-2D-6L in 10, 12 scored, 14 conceded.
- 2026 Primera División, Nacional Potosí home: 6W-1D-3L in 10.
- Nacional Potosí overall league record: 20 played, 8W-3D-9L, 30 scored, 28 conceded, 27 points (9th).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aurora's strong home scoring and Nacional's poor league away record give the host the better chance, though the head-to-head favours the visitor.
- Aurora home record: 4W-2D-1L, 2.0 goals per game
- Nacional Potosi away league record: 2W-2D-6L
- H2H last five: Nacional won 3, Aurora won 1, drew 1
- Aurora rank 6 with 30 pts; Nacional rank 9 with 27 pts
BetBugs · Match WinnerAurora CochabambaEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both sides make a level half the most likely outcome.
- Aurora home first-half GF/GA: 0.857/0.571
- Nacional away first-half GF/GA: 0.571/0.429
- Both teams' first-half goal averages are below 1.0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.50Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aurora score more after the break at home, giving them the better second-half win chance.
- Aurora home second-half goals for: 1.143 per game
- Nacional away second-half goals against: 0.857 per game
- Aurora home second-half goals against: 0.571
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerAurora CochabambaEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's strong home scoring and Nacional's poor league away record give the host the better chance, though the head-to-head favours the visitor. Nacional's overall form and recent dominance in this fixture keep their away win chance strong.
- Aurora home record: 4W-2D-1L, 2.0 goals per game
- Nacional Potosi away league record: 2W-2D-6L
- Nacional overall: 9W-2D-4L from 15 competitive matches
- Nacional scored 2.33 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Double ChanceAurora Cochabamba or Nacional PotosiEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's home first-half scoring edge gives them the better chance to lead at the break. Low first-half scoring rates for both sides make a level half the most likely outcome.
- Aurora home first-half goals for: 0.857 per game
- Nacional away first-half goals against: 0.429 per game
- Aurora home first-half GF/GA: 0.857/0.571
- Nacional away first-half GF/GA: 0.571/0.429
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfAurora Cochabamba or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' home and away matches tend to produce around three goals.
- Aurora home total goals average 3.14
- Nacional away total goals average 3.0
- H2H last five average 3.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.57Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both attacks have scored regularly, and neither defence is fully reliable.
- Aurora home both scored: 3 of 7
- Nacional away both scored: 4 of 7
- Nacional overall scored in 12 of 15; Aurora scored in 13 of 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.62Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Combined first-half goal averages point to at least one goal before half-time.
- Aurora home first-half total goals: 1.428 per game
- Nacional away first-half total goals: 1.0 per game
- Aurora overall first-half total: 1.466 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring and conceding rates for both sides favour only one or no team scoring before half-time.
- Nacional away first-half goals against: 0.429
- Aurora home first-half goals against: 0.571
- Both teams' first-half scoring averages are below 1.0
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal averages for both teams point to two or more goals after the break.
- Aurora home second-half total goals: 1.714 per game
- Nacional away second-half total goals: 2.0 per game
- Nacional overall second-half total: 2.2 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals tend to stay under 11.5, so the under is favoured.
- Aurora overall match corners: 8.6 total (5 matches)
- Nacional overall match corners: 9.67 total (6 matches)
- Aurora home corners: 3.5 for, 4.5 against (2 matches)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 11.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aurora's high yellow-card rate and occasional red cards make over 4.5 total cards more likely than not.
- Aurora overall yellow cards: 3.0, opponent 2.6 (5 matches)
- Nacional overall yellow cards: 1.5, opponent 1.17 (6 matches)
- Aurora have red cards in 3 tracked matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-0Nacional PotosívAuroraJul 10, 2026PRI

W1-2AuroravNacional PotosíSep 27, 2025PRI

L3-1Nacional PotosívAuroraMay 16, 2025PRI

D1-1AuroravNacional PotosíDec 17, 2024PRI

W1-3Nacional PotosívAuroraSep 14, 2024PRI

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Aurora Cochabamba	20	7	9	4	31-27	30	LWWDD
9	Nacional Potosi	20	8	3	9	30-28	27	LWWLW

3pt gap between teams

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