Guabira Montero3Aurora Cochabamba1

HT 2–1Wed 16 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 10–16On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 1–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 23:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Guabira's strong home form is offset by off-field distractions and Aurora's solid away record, making the home win and double chance poor value at current odds.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00, but confidence is medium; avoid the heavily juiced home-side markets.

Context

Guabirá goalkeeper M. Ferrel has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, but his readiness is now uncertain after threats against him and his family before the 13 September match at Always Ready.
Ferrel left that 6-0 defeat during the first half after the allegations emerged, and coach Leonardo Egüez later gave a witness statement to the FELCC. The unresolved case creates direct uncertainty around Guabirá's goalkeeper decision and final preparation, though it does not establish a performance effect.
- Guabirá coach Leonardo Egüez said Ferrel and his family were threatened before the 13 September match against Always Ready.
- La Razón reported that Ferrel left the 6-0 defeat during the first half after the allegations emerged.
- Montero Noticias reported that Egüez attended the FELCC after the delegation returned from El Alto to provide a witness statement.
- M. Ferrel started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/BucharestLa Razónlarazon.bo · 13 Sep 2026Montero Noticiasmonteronoticias.com · 14 Sep 2026
Guabira Montero sit 9th in the Primera División with 26 points from 19 matches.
Their away record is weak: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses in 10 away games, with 9 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent away results include a 0-6 loss to Always Ready on 2026-09-13 and a 1-5 loss to San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 2026-08-31. This suggests defensive struggles away from home, though this match is at home where they have been stronger.
- Guabira Montero lost 0-6 away to Always Ready on 2026-09-13.
- Guabira Montero lost 1-5 away to San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 2026-08-31.
- Guabira Montero's away record this season: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses, 9 goals for, 29 goals against.
Aurora appointed David Enrique Díaz as official head coach on 28 August, while Julio César Baldivieso leads first-team training as sporting manager because competition rules prevent him registering as coach.
Díaz is responsible for official match direction and Baldivieso leads training sessions, so selection, tactical preparation and matchday instructions are split between two staff members. This arrangement is still new for this away fixture and can affect how those duties are carried into the match.
- Aurora presented David Enrique Díaz as its official head coach on 28 August.
- The club assigned Julio César Baldivieso to lead first-team training as sporting manager.
- Unitel reported that Díaz is responsible for official match direction while Baldivieso leads training sessions.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/BucharestEl Díaeldia.com.bo · 28 Aug 2026Unitel Deportesfutbol.unitel.bo · 28 Aug 2026
Aurora Cochabamba sit 4th in the Primera División with 30 points from 19 matches.
Their recent form is strong: they beat San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2-0 away on 2026-09-11, beat Real Potosí 1-0 at home on 2026-09-08, and beat Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3-0 at home on 2026-09-05. This run suggests they are playing with confidence and could carry that into this away match.
- Aurora Cochabamba won 2-0 away to San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 2026-09-11.
- Aurora Cochabamba won 1-0 at home to Real Potosí on 2026-09-08.
- Aurora Cochabamba won 3-0 at home to Gualberto Villarroel SJ on 2026-09-05.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Guabira Montero

1.62fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Despite strong home form, the market price implies a much higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Guabira Montero or Draw

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.8%

−12.8ppshort

The market has already priced in Guabirá's strong home form, leaving no value on the double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Guabira's home games average 3.2 total goals and recent H2H meetings have been open, but the odds offer no cushion.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede in their respective home/away splits, but the odds are slightly against us.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have decent first-half scoring rates, but the market has already priced in a high probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guabira's strong home form and historical home advantage against Aurora support a home win, though Aurora's solid away record keeps confidence medium.
- Guabira home record: 5W 3D 1L, 20 goals for, 9 against in 9 home matches
- Aurora away record: 3W 5D 2L, 11 goals for, 11 against in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: Guabira won 2, Aurora won 3; Guabira home wins 2-1 and 5-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuabira MonteroEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guabira's excellent home form and Aurora's tendency to draw away make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Guabira home record: 5W 3D 1L, 20 goals for, 9 against in 9 home matches
- Aurora away record: 3W 5D 2L, 11 goals for, 11 against in 10 away matches
- Guabira home win/draw rate: 8/9 (89%)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGuabira Montero or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with frequent draws, making a level first half plausible.
- Guabira leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Aurora leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 27%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aurora's tendency to draw away at half time and Guabira's home strength support a draw/Guabira HT/FT outcome.
- Guabira home record: 5W 3D 1L, with 3 draws at half time in home matches
- Aurora away record: 3W 5D 2L, with 5 draws at half time in away matches
- H2H last 5: 2 matches were level at half time, Guabira won both
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Guabira MonteroEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guabira's home games are high-scoring and recent H2H meetings have been open, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Guabira home matches average 3.2 total goals (20 for, 9 against in 9)
- Aurora away matches average 2.2 total goals (11 for, 11 against in 10)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Guabira home: scored in 8/9, conceded in 6/9
- Aurora away: scored in 8/10, conceded in 7/10
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring rates, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Guabira first half goals: 0.6 per match, first half goals conceded: 1.0 per match
- Aurora first half goals: 0.7 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.6 per match
- Combined first half average: 1.45 goals per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring home matches and H2H trends suggest second halves often produce multiple goals.
- Guabira home matches average 3.2 total goals, with first half average 1.6, leaving 1.6 second half
- Aurora away matches average 2.2 total goals, with first half average 1.3, leaving 0.9 second half
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 corners, suggesting a total near 9, but limited recent corner data lowers confidence.
- Guabira home corners average: 4.4 per match
- Aurora away corners average: 5.0 per match
- Combined average: 9.4 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aurora's higher card count and combined averages suggest over 4.5 cards, but card data is volatile.
- Guabira average yellow cards: 2.2 per match
- Aurora average yellow cards: 3.3 per match
- Combined average: 5.5 yellow cards per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%