Wisla Krakow2Rakow Czestochowa1

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 1–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 14:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Wisła have won all five home league games and host the bottom side, whose new coach takes charge for the first time, but Wisła have not scored in their last two league matches and Raków won the last meeting at the Reymonta.

A home win is the likelier outcome, though 1.8 does not justify it. Under 2.5 goals at 2.6 and the first-half draw at 2.5 are the two prices that hold up.

Context

The appointment landed two days before kick-off, so shape, set-piece routines and the goalkeeping choice are all open going into Saturday. Szwarga is not an outsider: he has already managed 52 Raków matches at 1.52 points per game, which is the most concrete guide to how he might set the team up. The counterweight is that those results came with a different squad and staff, and two days is little time to change much. With six points from eleven rounds, the change of voice is the real variable rather than a settled improvement.
- Tomasz Kaczmarek left Raków after five matches in charge.
- Dawid Szwarga signed a contract running to the end of the 2027/28 season with an option to extend.
- Szwarga previously managed Raków for 52 matches at an average of 1.52 points per game.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Wisła put sectors G3, G4 and G5 on general sale on 12 October after the visiting club took no allocation, so the entire ground will be home support. That sits alongside a home league record of five wins from five, the strongest part of Wisła's season so far. Raków offer a partial check on how decisive that is: they won 2:1 away at Wieczysta in the same city a week earlier. Crowd size and the absence of travelling fans are conditions of the fixture rather than a measured edge.
- Wisła sold out the Reymonta for a sixth consecutive home fixture.
- Raków ordered no away tickets, so sectors G3, G4 and G5 were released to general sale.
- Wisła have won all five of their home league matches this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:01 · Europe/Bucharest
The detail is that the knee rules him out of matches while leaving individual and group sessions possible under physiotherapy supervision, which points to managed loading rather than a clean recovery. Mariusz Jop therefore picks from the attacking options that drew 0:0 at Widzew Łódź, a game Wisła controlled on shots without converting. The lay-off is weeks old rather than new, so the team has already built around it and no fresh tactical problem appears. The larger unknown for this fixture sits on the other bench.
- A knee injury prevents Guillemenot from playing matches while he continues individual and team training.
- He is ruled out of the Raków fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:01 · Europe/Bucharest
It is also Raków's third away day in Kraków this season, after a 2:1 win at Wieczysta on 16 October and a 1:2 defeat at Cracovia in August, so travel and surroundings are familiar. The memory is a reference point rather than a forecast: that win came under a different coaching staff and a different starting goalkeeper. Whether Trelowski keeps the gloves now depends on a bench that has only just been installed. The ground holds good recent memories for the visitors even in a season that has gone badly.
- Raków won their previous match at the Reymonta 2:1.
- Kacper Trelowski made his Raków debut in goal in that game.
- Saturday's fixture is Raków's third away match in Kraków this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:01 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 83.3%

−21.3ppshort

First-half goals have been common across both teams' season matches, with each averaging more than one goal before the break combined.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Wisła have won every home league game and meet a bottom side with one away league win.
- Wisła are 5W-0D-0L at home in the league with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Raków are 18th with 6 points from 11 and a 1W-0D-4L league away record.
- Wisła are sixth on 18 points and sold out Reymonta again with no away allocation.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWisla KrakowEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are low and Raków have often been level at the break away.
- Wisła home first-half totals average 1.0 goal; Raków away first-half totals average 1.0.
- Raków were 0-0 at half-time at Wieczysta and Lech in their last three away matches.
- Wisła average 0.67 first-half goals for and against overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła have won every home league game and meet a bottom side with one away league win. Wisła's recent blank scores and Raków's coaching change make a share of the points plausible.
- Wisła are 5W-0D-0L at home in the league with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Raków are 18th with 6 points from 11 and a 1W-0D-4L league away record.
- Wisła's last two league matches finished 0-0 and 0-2, both away from home.
- Raków appointed Dawid Szwarga as coach on 21 October.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWisla Krakow or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła have started home games strongly, scoring in the first half of their last two at Reymonta. Both teams' first-half scoring averages are low and Raków have often been level at the break away.
- Wisła average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded at home.
- Raków average 0.625 first-half goals scored and 0.375 conceded away.
- Wisła home first-half totals average 1.0 goal; Raków away first-half totals average 1.0.
- Raków were 0-0 at half-time at Wieczysta and Lech in their last three away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWisla Krakow or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' season averages point to around three goals, with Raków's games especially open.
- Wisła average 2.83 total goals per competitive match; Raków average 3.36.
- Wisła home matches average 2.6 goals; Raków away matches average 3.0.
- Raków have conceded 26 goals in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have scored in a majority of their matches and Raków have found the net in five of their last six.
- Wisła have seen both teams score in 8 of 12; Raków in 10 of 14.
- Raków have scored in five of their last six matches.
- Raków's away matches have both teams scoring in 5 of 8.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals have been common across both teams' season matches, with each averaging more than one goal before the break combined.
- Wisła home first-half goals total 1.0 per match; Raków away total 1.0.
- Wisła overall first-half total 1.33; Raków 1.29.
- Both teams average 0.64-0.67 first-half goals for.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raków's low away corner count and the combined team averages below 10.5 support fewer corners.
- Raków take 3.7 corners away and Wisła 5.6 at home, combining to 9.3.
- Wisła home total corners average 10.4; Raków away total 10.6.
- Wisła won 11 corners in one home match, showing variance.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The home and away shot averages add up just above the threshold.
- Wisła home shots average 18.8; Raków away shots average 16.2.
- Those two averages combine to 35.0 shots.
- Raków away opponents average 18.4 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 34.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wisła allow few shots on target at home, keeping the combined count around 10.
- Wisła home matches total 9.0 shots on target.
- Wisła allow only 3.6 shots on target at home.
- Combined team shots on target average 10.4, just below the threshold.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raków's away matches have averaged more than four cards, lifting the combined expectation.
- Raków away matches average 4.4 total cards.
- Raków pick up 2.3 yellow cards away; opponents 2.1.
- Combined team yellow averages are about 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%