Leganes1Mallorca1

HT 0–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 12:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Leganés have gone four league games without a goal and now hand the side to a new coach, while Mallorca arrive sixth with five goals conceded in ten league games.

A low-scoring match with Mallorca the likelier winner, and a draw close behind, is the shape. Both teams to score – No at 1.83, under 2.5 goals at 1.65 and no goal before half-time at 2.7 are the prices the records back; Mallorca at 2.3 is not.

Context

The sacking landed on 18 October, hours after Córdoba won 1-0 at Butarque to hand Leganés a fourth defeat in a row in which they scored nothing, and Luis Carrión was presented the next day. He is the man picking the XI, the shape and the set-piece plan for this fixture, and neither has been seen yet, so the main effect on the match is genuine uncertainty about how Leganés will line up rather than assumed improvement. His recent record is the caution: the two spells before this one each ended after nine matches. Treat the change as a shift in the range of plausible Leganés performances, not as a fixed upgrade.
- Rubén Albés was dismissed on 18 October, the day after a 1-0 home defeat by Córdoba.
- Leganés named Luis Carrión as head coach until the end of the season and presented him at Butarque on 19 October.
- Carrión's two previous managerial spells each lasted nine matches.
- His stated target is an improvement in the table rather than a specific style of play.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:17 · Europe/Bucharest
The red card came in stoppage time of the Córdoba defeat and the one-match ban was not contested, so Leganés must build their attack around someone else against a Mallorca side whose defensive record is the strongest part of their start. Morata's value in that situation is presence rather than output: he holds the ball up and gives a struggling side a target, and that is what disappears. The counterpoint is real, because he has not scored a league goal this season and Leganés had already gone four matches without scoring with him in the team. The suspension removes an option without removing a demonstrated source of goals.
- Morata was sent off in stoppage time of the 1-0 home defeat by Córdoba on 16 October.
- The sanction is one match, and Leganés did not appeal because there was no legal route to remove the cards.
- He has not scored a league goal for Leganés this season, a run that has drawn scrutiny of his finishing.
- Álvaro Morata started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 297 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:17 · Europe/Bucharest
The three absences land on the part of the squad Mallorca use to support Pablo Torre and Abdón Prats, in a match where the visitors should see more of the ball than they did at Eibar. Cerdà is the concrete loss, having stepped into the side when Morlanes went down with the ankle injury that required surgery in Barcelona on 4 October. The limitation is on the other name: Chetauya does not appear in the squad list used for this fixture, so his role cannot be assessed and the effect of his absence is unknown. Depth, not the first-choice XI, is what these absences test.
- Cerdà, Puigmal and Chetauya are unavailable for the Leganés fixture.
- Josep Cerdà had been coming into the side during Morlanes' absence in early October.
- Morlanes had ankle ligament surgery on 4 October and Roca has a hamstring injury, both with long recovery windows.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:17 · Europe/Bucharest
A suspension means the absence is certain rather than a fitness gamble, and it comes in the unit Mallorca rely on most, having conceded around half a goal a game so far. The relevant question for this fixture is whether it forces a change in the centre of defence or merely shortens the bench, because Mallorca have several senior defenders available. No confirmed XI or usage record establishes Nwankwo as a first-choice starter, so the suspension should be read as a reduction in options rather than a guaranteed reshuffle. It matters most if the replacement changes how Mallorca defend crosses and set pieces.
- Nwankwo is listed as suspended for the Leganés fixture.
- He is named among seven players banned for matchday 11, alongside Morata.
- Mallorca finished their 1-1 draw at Eibar on 17 October with ten men after a red card.
- John Nwankwo started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 372 minutes across 5 appearances.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:17 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Mallorca's defensive record and Leganés' scoring problems favor the visitors.
- Mallorca are 6th with 18 points from ten games.
- They have conceded five goals in ten league matches.
- Leganés have failed to score in their last four league games.
- Mallorca are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMallorcaEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Both teams have produced few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the central outcome.
- Leganés average 0.3 first-half goals overall.
- Mallorca average 0.45 first-half goals overall.
- Mallorca average 0 first-half goals away.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring averages.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring is modest, making a shared final half plausible.
- Leganés average 0.5 second-half goals at home.
- Mallorca average 0.4 second-half goals away.
- Mallorca average 0.4 second-half goals against away.
- Leganés average 0.75 second-half goals against at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Mallorca's away draw rate and both teams' low scoring make a share of the points a strong possibility. Mallorca's defensive record and Leganés' scoring problems favor the visitors.
- Mallorca's away record is 1W-3D-1L.
- Leganés have scored six goals in ten league games.
- Mallorca are 6th with 18 points from ten games.
- They have conceded five goals in ten league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or MallorcaEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
If either side scores before half-time, Leganés' home first-half numbers give them a slight edge. Both teams have produced few first-half goals, making a level half-time score the central outcome.
- Leganés average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
- Mallorca average 0 first-half goals away.
- Leganés average 0.3 first-half goals overall.
- Mallorca average 0.45 first-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLeganes or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
The combined scoring and clean-sheet records point to a low-scoring match.
- Leganés average 0.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per league game.
- Mallorca average 0.4 goals scored in five away league games.
- Mallorca have kept seven clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- Four of Leganés' last six league games had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Leganés' scoring drought and Mallorca's away clean sheets make both teams scoring unlikely.
- Leganés have failed to score in five of their last six league matches.
- Mallorca have kept three clean sheets in five away league games.
- Mallorca average 0.4 goals scored away.
- Leganés average 0.6 goals scored overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leganés' scoring drought and Mallorca's away clean-sheet record make two or more home goals unlikely.
- Leganés have failed to score in their last four league games.
- Mallorca have conceded three goals in five away league games.
- Leganés average 1.0 goal at home.
- Mallorca have kept three clean sheets away.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLeganes under 1.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mallorca's low away scoring makes it more likely they score one goal or none.
- Mallorca average 0.4 goals in five away league games.
- Leganés average 1.25 goals conceded at home.
- Mallorca have scored two goals in five away games.
- Mallorca's away record includes three draws.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMallorca under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leganés' scoring problems and Mallorca's clean-sheet rate make a shutout plausible.
- Leganés have failed to score in their last four league games.
- Mallorca have kept seven clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- Mallorca have three clean sheets in five away league games.
- Morata is suspended for Leganés.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLeganes not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.70
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are low, making a goalless opening period more likely than not.
- Leganés average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Mallorca average 0 first-half goals away.
- Mallorca average 0.2 first-half goals against away.
- Leganés average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance53%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' recent matches have generally cleared nine corners.
- Leganés average 3.5 corners at home and 5.75 against.
- Mallorca average 5.2 corners away and 5.4 against.
- Leganés' last six league matches averaged about 9.3 total corners.
- Mallorca's last six league matches averaged about 9.8 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' recent matches have usually produced enough shots to clear 23.5.
- Leganés average 14 shots at home and 19.75 against.
- Mallorca average 12.6 shots away and 12.2 against.
- Leganés' last six league matches averaged about 31.7 total shots.
- Mallorca's last six league matches averaged about 24.7 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 23.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined on-target rate from recent matches points above 7.5.
- Leganés average 5.5 shots on target at home and 5.25 against.
- Mallorca average 3.4 shots on target away and 4.4 against.
- Leganés' last six league matches averaged about 9.7 total shots on target.
- Mallorca's last six league matches averaged about 7.7 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leganés' home matches and Mallorca's away bookings point to a busy card count.
- Leganés average 3.25 yellow cards at home and 1.75 against.
- Mallorca average 3.4 yellow cards away and 1.2 against.
- Leganés' recent league games often produced six or more cards.
- No referee is confirmed for this match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance53%