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Predictions graded

Worcester City1Chorley Women0

HT 0–0Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest

A replay decided by a 93rd-minute equaliser, with Chorley needing a new goalkeeper and Worcester City at home.

Both splits read 3W-1D-3L, and Worcester's home games have produced only 1.71 goals in total, so a tight night ending level or with a narrow home win is the likeliest shape. Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, Worcester to avoid defeat at 1.57 and the draw at 3.60 are the prices worth taking; Worcester at 2.50 and Chorley at 2.30 are not.

Context

Chorley go into the replay without the goalkeeper who started the first tie, and it is the one position a manager cannot rotate quietly on a three-day turnaround. That absences lands against a Worcester side that put nine shots on target at Victory Park, so the deputy's handling of crosses and command of a back line are the details most exposed. The dismissal came from a second booking over dissent rather than a goalkeeping error, so nothing in the evidence says the replacement is the weaker keeper; the cost is unfamiliarity rather than known quality.
- Chorley's goalkeeper was shown a second booking and dismissed during the 1-1 draw with Worcester City at Victory Park.
- The dismissal leaves the manager choosing a replacement goalkeeper for the replay three days later.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestChorley FC match report: Chorley 1-1 Worcester Citywww.chorleyfc.com · 17 Oct 2026
Preece is a Worcester man who started his playing career at the club and later spent two years in charge there, and he now manages the side standing between Worcester and the first round. He framed the tie as "probably our biggest game since King's Lynn in the playoff eliminator", which sets a qualifying replay alongside Chorley's recent promotion push rather than a routine cup afternoon. Familiarity runs one way: he knows the club and the ground, but Worcester's current squad is not the one he left, so the reunion is a genuine story and only a soft sporting signal rather than evidence of a tactical edge.
- Preece began his playing career at Worcester City and later had a two-year spell managing the club.
- He is now Chorley's manager, and the fourth qualifying round draw paired his side with Worcester City.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Because the draw is made the night before the replay, the prize has a name and an address attached by kick-off: the winner's first-round opponent is already known, along with whether that tie is at home. That gives a fourth qualifying round replay a concrete stake rather than the abstract idea of reaching the first round, and it applies equally to a Chorley side two levels above their hosts in the pyramid and a Worcester side from the Southern League Premier Central. The counterpoint is that the allocation is administrative: it tells us about the size of the prize, not about how either manager will set up, and Worcester played the first tie with exactly the same prize on offer.
- Worcester City and Chorley were allocated ball 50 for the first-round draw.
- The draw was scheduled for about 6:35pm on Monday 19 October, the evening before the replay.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Chorley used a substitution at the interval because of an injury rather than to change the game, and the replay falls three days later, the shortest window in which a muscle problem can settle. With the goalkeeper also unavailable, team selection has become the least predictable part of Chorley's preparation for Sixways. The limitation is that nothing further on the injury has emerged since Saturday, so it is unclear whether Hazlehurst is a genuine doubt for the replay or was withdrawn as a precaution.
- Jack Hazlehurst was withdrawn at half-time and replaced by Sampson.
- The change came during the 1-1 draw that forced the replay.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestChorley FC match report: Chorley 1-1 Worcester Citywww.chorleyfc.com · 17 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Worcester's home record and the first-match shot count give them a narrow advantage, helped by Chorley's goalkeeper change.
- Worcester are 3W-1D-3L at home, averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded.
- Chorley are 3W-1D-3L away, averaging 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
- The first tie finished 1-1, with Worcester having 19 shots to Chorley's 10.
- Chorley's goalkeeper was dismissed for a second booking in the first tie.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWorcester CityEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chorley's first-half advantage is real but not large enough to make a lead more likely than a level break.
- Worcester's home first halves average 0.86 total goals.
- Chorley's away first halves average 1.43 total goals.
- The first tie was 1-0 to Chorley at half-time.
- Chorley average 1.00 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates are low enough that a level half is the single most likely result.
- Worcester's home second halves average 0.86 total goals.
- Chorley's away second halves average 1.29 total goals.
- The first tie's second half had one goal.
- Chorley average 0.29 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worcester's home record and the first-match shot count give them a narrow advantage, helped by Chorley's goalkeeper change. Chorley's stronger overall attack and higher-level record keep them close despite the goalkeeper problem.
- Worcester are 3W-1D-3L at home, averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded.
- Chorley are 3W-1D-3L away, averaging 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
- Chorley have 7 wins from 14 overall and average 1.71 goals scored.
- Chorley's away split is 3W-1D-3L with 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWorcester City or Chorley WomenEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley's first-half advantage is real but not large enough to make a lead more likely than a level break. Chorley have been the stronger first-half side, while Worcester have rarely led at the break at home.
- Worcester's home first halves average 0.86 total goals.
- Chorley's away first halves average 1.43 total goals.
- Chorley average 1.00 first-half goals away and concede 0.43.
- Worcester average 0.29 first-half goals at home and concede 0.57.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Chorley WomenEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Worcester's home games have been low-scoring, and the first tie stayed at two goals.
- Worcester home matches average 1.71 total goals.
- Chorley away matches average 2.71 total goals.
- The first tie produced two goals.
- Worcester's overall goals-for average is 0.93.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Worcester's home games have often been low-scoring and include three clean sheets, making a repeat of both scoring less likely.
- Worcester's home matches have produced both teams scoring in 2 of 7.
- Chorley's away matches have produced both teams scoring in 3 of 7.
- Worcester kept three clean sheets in seven home matches.
- The first tie did see both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worcester have scored little at home this season, so reaching two goals is unlikely.
- Worcester average 0.71 goals per home match.
- Worcester's overall goals-for average is 0.93.
- Chorley's away goals-against average is 1.43.
- Worcester scored three at Kettering in the FA Cup.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonWorcester City under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley's away scoring is useful but not high enough to make two goals likely.
- Chorley average 1.29 goals per away match.
- Chorley scored four at Barton Town in the FA Cup.
- Worcester have kept three clean sheets in seven home matches.
- Chorley's overall goals-for average is 1.71.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChorley Women under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half records point to at least one goal before the break.
- Worcester home first halves average 0.86 total goals.
- Chorley away first halves average 1.43 total goals.
- The first tie had one first-half goal.
- Chorley average 1.00 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The only tracked meeting stayed just under the line, but the sample is too small to separate the sides strongly.
- The first tie produced 29 total shots: Worcester 19, Chorley 10.
- Worcester's one tracked shot match averaged 19 shots; Chorley's averaged 10.
- Both teams' shot samples cover only one match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/Undernot gradableUnder 29.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D1-1ChorleyvWorcester CityOct 17, 2026FAC

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Worcester City

D1-1ChorleyOct 17FAC

L1-3StourbridgeOct 13NON

L0-1Rushall OlympicOct 10NON

W3-1Kettering TownOct 3FAC

D2-2Racing Club WarwickSep 29NON

L0-2Leek TownSep 26FA

D0-0Banbury UnitedSep 22NON

W2-1Stratford TownSep 18FAC

L0-2Needham MarketSep 12NON

W1-0Knowle WSep 8FAC

D1-1Knowle WSep 5FAC

L0-1Bromsgrove SportingAug 31NON

D1-1LeamingtonAug 29NON

W1-0StamfordAug 22NON

L1-2Leighton TownAug 15NON

Chorley Women

D1-1Worcester CityOct 17FAC

W2-1AFC Telford UnitedOct 10NAT

W4-1Barton Town Old BoysOct 3FAC

W2-1Spalding UnitedSep 26NAT

W1-0RylandsSep 19FAC

L0-2King's Lynn TownSep 12NAT

W5-2Darlington 1883Sep 8NAT

L0-4Oxford CitySep 5NAT

D2-2Brackley TownAug 31NAT

D1-1Merthyr TownAug 29NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 22NAT

W2-0MarineAug 18NAT

L1-2South ShieldsAug 15NAT

L1-2ChesterAug 8NAT

L1-2TraffordJul 28FRI

Squad & Injuries

Worcester City

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Chorley Women

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Worcester City or Draw

Draw

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Worcester City

Chorley Women

Squad & Injuries

Worcester City

Chorley Women