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Predictions graded

Chorley1Worcester City1

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 10–19On targetOn target 7–9CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Chorley, a division above Worcester City and at home, look the likely winners with a first-round place at stake, though Worcester's cup run and Chorley's habit of conceding at home make that no formality.

Both teams to score at 1.7 and the half-time draw at 2.4 are the quoted prices that offer something; Chorley to win at 1.57, over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and Chorley to win or draw at 1.15 do not.

Context

Chorley won four of six at home but were never able to shut out the opposition, and Worcester scored in seven of nine away games. That pattern supports both teams scoring more than it supports a comfortable home clean sheet. Worcester's away output is modest, though, at 1.11 goals per game, and they failed to score in two of their last six matches.
- Chorley's six home matches from 8 August to 10 October 2026 produced both teams scoring in all six, with 2.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Worcester's away record of one win, four draws and four defeats makes a tight, low-margin game more likely than a heavy home win, and four draws in nine is the standout detail. They also scored in seven of nine on the road, so a level or one-goal game stays credible. Chorley's four home wins from six are the counterweight.
- Worcester's nine away matches from 8 August to 10 October 2026 produced one win, four draws and four defeats, with 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Preece manages Chorley and is from Worcester, where he also played, a connection the non-league press took up before the tie. It frames the fourth qualifying round meeting as a return for the manager to his hometown club. The link is established through a preview headline and a supporters' account rather than a club or manager statement, so it stands as background interest and carries no sourced indication of a selection or tactical change.
- Andy Preece is the manager of Chorley, the higher-division side in this fourth qualifying round tie.
- Preece is from Worcester and played for Worcester City before moving into management.
- The Non-League Paper's 11 October front page carries the line 'Andy Preece on his special bond with Worcester City'.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Worcester City's 3-1 win at Kettering Town on 3 October carried them into the fourth qualifying round and settled an FA Cup score from 101 years earlier. It is the first time in 11 years the club has gone beyond the third qualifying round, giving the away side three FA Cup wins and a settled cup rhythm going into the Chorley tie. Chorley play a division higher in National League North, so Worcester City's run is the strongest available measure of their cup form.
- Worcester City won 3-1 away at Kettering Town in the third qualifying round on 3 October.
- It is 11 years since Worcester City went beyond the third qualifying round.
- Their only previous FA Cup meeting with Kettering, 101 years earlier, had ended in a Kettering win.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:11 · Europe/BucharestWorcester City drawn away to Chorleywww.worcesternews.co.uk · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chorley or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

−7.0ppshort

Chorley sit a level above Worcester and have won four of six at home, while Worcester have won once in nine away games. Worcester's away record is draw-heavy and a single-goal or level game is a realistic outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Chorley sit a level above Worcester and have won four of six at home, while Worcester have won once in nine away games.
- Chorley 7W-2D-4L in 13 competitive matches; 4W-1D-1L at home
- Worcester 4W-5D-6L in 15, and 1W-4D-4L away
- Chorley average 1.77 goals for and 1.46 against; Worcester 0.93 for and 1.20 against
- Chorley play a division above Worcester and have home advantage
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChorleyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams score slowly before the break, so level at half-time is the single likeliest outcome.
- Chorley average 0.85 first-half goals for, 0.38 against
- Worcester average 0.47 first-half goals for, 0.47 against
- Chorley's home first halves have averaged one goal total
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are spread across both teams, so a shared half is a common outcome.
- Chorley second-half goals for 0.92 and against 1.08
- Worcester second-half goals for 0.47 and against 0.73
- Chorley's recent second halves have often been shared
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Chorley sit a level above Worcester and have won four of six at home, while Worcester have won once in nine away games. Worcester's away record is draw-heavy and a single-goal or level game is a realistic outcome.
- Chorley 7W-2D-4L in 13 competitive matches; 4W-1D-1L at home
- Worcester 4W-5D-6L in 15, and 1W-4D-4L away
- Worcester have drawn 5 of 15 and 4 of 9 away
- Chorley have drawn 2 of 13
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChorley or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley hold a clear first-half scoring and defensive advantage over Worcester. Both teams score slowly before the break, so level at half-time is the single likeliest outcome.
- Chorley first-half goals for 0.85 and against 0.38 across 13
- Worcester first-half goals for 0.47 and against 0.47 across 15
- Chorley average 0.85 first-half goals for, 0.38 against
- Worcester average 0.47 first-half goals for, 0.47 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonChorley or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, so three goals or more is a realistic total.
- Chorley home games average 2.33 goals for and 1.5 against
- Worcester away games average 1.11 for and 1.56 against
- Chorley's last six matches produced 5 scored and 5 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Chorley have not kept a home clean sheet and Worcester have scored in most away matches.
- Chorley scored and conceded in all 6 home matches
- Worcester scored in 7 of 9 away games and conceded in all 9
- Chorley both-scored in 9 of 13; Worcester in 8 of 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley have scored twice or more in most home games, and Worcester concede away regularly.
- Chorley scored 2+ in 4 of their 6 home matches
- Chorley average 2.33 goals per home game
- Worcester conceded in all 9 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostChorley over 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Worcester's scoring output is modest and usually limited to a single goal.
- Worcester scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6
- Worcester average 1.11 goals per away game
- Worcester scored 10 in 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonWorcester City under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley have conceded in every home match and Worcester usually score away.
- Chorley conceded in all 6 home matches
- Worcester scored in 7 of 9 away games
- Chorley's home games saw both teams score in all 6
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWorcester City to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley have found the net in nearly every match and Worcester concede in every away game.
- Chorley scored in 11 of 13 matches
- Worcester conceded in all 9 away games
- Chorley average 1.77 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChorley to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The two teams' first-half figures point to at least one goal before the break.
- Chorley average 0.85 first-half goals and concede 0.38
- Worcester average 0.47 first-half goals and concede 0.47
- Combined first-half average is about 1.32 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making two early goals improbable.
- Chorley score 0.85 and concede 0.38 in first halves
- Worcester score 0.47 and concede 0.47 in first halves
- Neither side averages even one first-half goal per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley's home second halves are high-scoring and their recent games often had two or more goals after the break.
- Chorley home second half: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded
- Worcester away second half: 0.56 scored, 1.00 conceded
- Chorley's last six matches produced 2+ second-half goals in 4 of 6
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Recent Form

Chorley

W2-1AFC Telford UnitedOct 10NAT

W4-1Barton Town Old BoysOct 3FAC

W2-1Spalding UnitedSep 26NAT

W1-0RylandsSep 19FAC

L0-2King's Lynn TownSep 12NAT

W5-2Darlington 1883Sep 8NAT

L0-4Oxford CitySep 5NAT

D2-2Brackley TownAug 31NAT

D1-1Merthyr TownAug 29NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 22NAT

W2-0MarineAug 18NAT

L1-2South ShieldsAug 15NAT

L1-2ChesterAug 8NAT

L1-2TraffordJul 28FRI

L0-3Accrington STJul 25FRI

Worcester City

L0-1Rushall OlympicOct 10NON

W3-1Kettering TownOct 3FAC

D2-2Racing Club WarwickSep 29NON

L0-2Leek TownSep 26FA

D0-0Banbury UnitedSep 22NON

W2-1Stratford TownSep 18FAC

L0-2Needham MarketSep 12NON

W1-0Knowle WSep 8FAC

D1-1Knowle WSep 5FAC

L0-1Bromsgrove SportingAug 31NON

D1-1LeamingtonAug 29NON

W1-0StamfordAug 22NON

L1-2Leighton TownAug 15NON

L1-3AlvechurchAug 11NON

D1-1Stratford TownAug 8NON

Squad & Injuries

Chorley

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Worcester City

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Draw

Chorley or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Chorley

Over 2.5

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Chorley

Worcester City

Squad & Injuries

Chorley

Worcester City