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Barton TownChorley

Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:003 Oct, 14:00

15Probabilities2Priced3Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Barton Town, ninth tier, host sixth-tier Chorley in the FA Cup third qualifying round, four divisions apart.

Chorley are the likely winners, but 1.4 asks for a 71.4% chance their away form - five goals in six road games, defeats at King's Lynn and Oxford City - does not support. Under 2.5 goals at 2.5 is the one quoted price here that offers something; both teams to score at 1.67 does not.

Context

A four-division gap in a one-off cup tie at a ninth-tier ground shapes the match, but Chorley's modest away scoring, two heavy away defeats and Barton Town's habit of scoring at home keep the contest meaningful rather than a formality.

Chorley sit four divisions above Barton Town, so the fixture asks a ninth-tier home side to handle National League North opposition rather than a peer. Only five ninth-tier clubs are still in the competition, and Barton Town reached this stage by beating eighth-tier Boldmere St Michaels 3-1 at home. Their first qualifying round did need a replay against North Ferriby, so the gap still has to be played out rather than assumed away. The higher tier sets the expectation; the one-off cup format and Barton Town's home ground are the parts that can compress it.
- Barton Town host Chorley in the third qualifying round of the FA Cup on Saturday 3 October 2026.
- Barton Town play in the ninth tier and Chorley in the sixth-tier National League North.
- Five ninth-tier clubs remain in this season's competition at this stage.
- Barton Town won 3-1 at home against Boldmere St Michaels in the second qualifying round on 19 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Barton Town's home record is even rather than imposing: four wins and four defeats, with goals at both ends in most of those games.
Barton Town score and concede at similar rates at home, so Chorley should not expect a comfortable afternoon even with the divisional gap. Six of eight home matches produced goals for both teams, which points to the home side carrying a real attacking threat. The sample runs from 2021, so it covers several different Barton Town sides rather than only the current one.
- Barton Town's eight tracked home matches run from 7 August 2021 to 19 September 2026: 4 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses.
- They average 2.00 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per home match across that sample.
- Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 home matches, and Barton Town kept 1 clean sheet at home.
Chorley travel as the higher-division side, but their away matches this season have been tight and low-scoring rather than dominant.
Chorley have scored only five goals across six away matches and lost 0-2 at King's Lynn Town and 0-4 at Oxford City, so the higher division has not translated into comfortable road performances. Their two away clean sheets, including the 1-0 cup win at Warrington Rylands on 19 September 2026, show the other side of it. Six matches is a small sample, and one heavy defeat moves the averages a long way.
- Chorley's six away matches ran from 15 August to 19 September 2026: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- They average 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away match.
- They kept 2 clean sheets away from home in that sample.
- Their most recent away match was a 1-0 FA Cup win at Warrington Rylands on 19 September 2026.
Chorley's journey to Barton upon Humber is a long away day for a National League North side, and coach travel was arranged to bring a travelling support to a ground the club does not visit in league football. Training was held at Victory Park on the Thursday evening, so the build-up stayed on the usual ground rather than shifting early. The travel is a logistical feature of the cup tie, and it is a journey the players will make the same day as the match.
- The away trip from Chorley to Barton upon Humber covers about 121 miles.
- A supporters' coach was arranged for the tie through the club's away-day group.
- Chorley trained at Victory Park on the evening of 1 October 2026 before the tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Chorley

1.40fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 71.4%

−10.4ppshort

Chorley are four divisions above Barton Town and have won their last two games, including a clean-sheet cup win away at a seventh-tier side.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 59.9%

−7.9ppshort

Both sides have regularly scored and conceded, with Barton Town finding the net in most of their tracked games and Chorley involved in many scorelines where both teams struck.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Chorley are four divisions above Barton Town and have won their last two games, including a clean-sheet cup win away at a seventh-tier side.
- Chorley play four divisions higher, in National League North against a ninth-tier host
- Chorley's 11 competitive matches this season: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 1.55 goals scored and conceded per game
- Barton Town's 13 tracked competitive matches: 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses
- Chorley have won both of their last two matches, including a 1-0 FA Cup win at Warrington Rylands
BetBugs · Match WinnerChorleyMarket price1.40Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring has been light, and Chorley were level or behind at the break in five of their last six games.
- Chorley average 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.45 conceded per competitive match
- Barton Town average 0.50 first-half goals in four matches with the data
- Chorley were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches and trailed in 3
- The two sides' first-half scoring averages sum to roughly one goal per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chorley are four divisions stronger and carry the greater overall threat, though their away second-half record is surprisingly quiet.
- Chorley score 0.91 and concede 1.09 second-half goals per competitive match
- Barton Town average 1.00 second-half goals and 0.33 conceded in three home matches with the data
- Chorley average 0.17 second-half goals across six away matches
- Chorley's away second-half goals-conceded average is 1.00
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerChorleyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley are four divisions above Barton Town and have won their last two games, including a clean-sheet cup win away at a seventh-tier side. A four-division gap usually decides this kind of tie, but Barton Town's home cup wins have been narrow rather than one-sided and Chorley have been inconsistent on the road.
- Chorley play four divisions higher, in National League North against a ninth-tier host
- Chorley's 11 competitive matches this season: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 1.55 goals scored and conceded per game
- Barton Town have drawn 3 of 13 tracked competitive matches
- Chorley have drawn 2 of 11 competitive matches this season
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or ChorleyEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring has been light, and Chorley were level or behind at the break in five of their last six games. Chorley are the stronger side and have the better first-half goal difference, even though their recent halves have often been tight.
- Chorley average 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.45 conceded per competitive match
- Barton Town average 0.50 first-half goals in four matches with the data
- Chorley average 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.45 conceded this season
- Barton Town average 0.25 first-half goals conceded in four matches with the data
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or ChorleyEstimated chance85%

Goals10 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barton Town's home matches have been high-scoring and Chorley's recent games include a 5-2 win and a 0-4 defeat.
- Barton Town's eight tracked home matches average 2.00 goals scored and 2.13 conceded
- Barton Town have both scored and conceded in 6 of 8 home matches
- Chorley's 11 competitive matches average 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded
- Chorley beat Darlington 5-2 and lost 0-4 at Oxford City in their recent league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both sides have regularly scored and conceded, with Barton Town finding the net in most of their tracked games and Chorley involved in many scorelines where both teams struck.
- Barton Town have both scored and conceded in 6 of 8 tracked home matches
- Barton Town scored in 10 of 13 competitive matches
- Chorley have both scored and conceded in 7 of 11 competitive matches
- Chorley failed to score in 4 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.67Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Barton Town's home scoring has come against weaker opposition, and Chorley's away defence has produced two clean sheets.
- Barton Town's home scoring average of 2.00 comes against mostly lower-tier opposition
- Chorley kept clean sheets in 2 of 6 away matches
- Chorley concede 1.5 goals per away match but faced National League North attacks
- Barton Town failed to score in 3 of 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBarton Town under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley's away scoring has been modest this season, with one goal or fewer in several road games.
- Chorley average 0.83 goals per away match in six games
- Chorley failed to score in 4 of 11 competitive matches
- Their away wins this season include a single-goal margin at Warrington Rylands
- Chorley's away goals-conceded average is 1.5 per match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalChorley under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Barton Town have conceded in nearly all of their tracked home games and Chorley score in most of theirs.
- Barton Town have conceded in 11 of 13 tracked competitive matches
- They have conceded in 7 of 8 home matches
- Chorley average 1.55 goals per competitive match
- Chorley scored in 7 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreChorley to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Barton Town rarely fail to score and Chorley have conceded in most of their away matches.
- Barton Town scored in 10 of 13 tracked competitive matches
- Barton Town average 2.00 goals per home match
- Chorley conceded in 4 of 6 away matches this season
- Chorley lost 0-2 and 0-4 on recent away trips
BetBugs · Team to ScoreBarton Town to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley winning without conceding requires both a victory and a shutout, and Barton Town score too often at home for that to be the main path.
- Barton Town scored in 10 of 13 tracked competitive matches
- Chorley kept clean sheets in 2 of 6 away matches
- Chorley's 61 percent match-win share makes a clean win a fraction of that total
- Barton Town average 2.00 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring averages point to roughly one goal before the break, making at least one goal more likely than none.
- Chorley average 0.64 first-half goals scored and 0.45 conceded per competitive match
- Barton Town average 0.50 scored and 0.25 conceded in four matches with the data
- Chorley were involved in first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Barton Town's four tracked halves with data produced a goal in three of them
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are infrequent for both sides, so one team or neither scoring before the break is the strong expectation.
- Chorley have scored 0.64 and conceded 0.45 first-half goals per competitive match
- Barton Town's four matches with first-half data produced 0.5 scored and 0.25 conceded
- Chorley were level at 0-0 at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Four of Chorley's last six matches had at most one first-half goal
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chorley's away games have been light on second-half goals, and Barton Town's home record shows few conceded after the break.
- Chorley's away matches average 1.17 second-half goals in total
- Chorley have scored 0.17 second-half goals per away match this season
- Barton Town average 0.33 second-half goals conceded in home matches with the data
- Chorley's last away league games produced one second-half goal each at King's Lynn and Oxford City
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Recent Form

Barton Town

W3-1Boldmere St. MichaelsSep 19FAC

W2-0North FerribySep 8FAC

D0-0North FerribySep 5FAC

L1-6Carlton TownAug 16FAC

W2-1Loughborough UniversityAug 5FAC

D1-1Loughborough UniversityAug 2FAC

L0-1Rugby TownAug 31FAC

W3-2Northampton ON ChenecksAug 17FAC

W5-2Newark TownAug 3FAC

L0-5ScunthorpeJul 9FRI

L1-3Grimsby BoroughAug 8FAC

D1-1Bottesford TownAug 6FAC

L2-3Maltby MainAug 7FAC

L1-4ScunthorpeJul 10FRI

L0-2QuornSep 12FAC

Chorley

W2-1Spalding UnitedSep 26NAT

W1-0RylandsSep 19FAC

L0-2King's Lynn TownSep 12NAT

W5-2Darlington 1883Sep 8NAT

L0-4Oxford CitySep 5NAT

D2-2Brackley TownAug 31NAT

D1-1Merthyr TownAug 29NAT

W2-1Scarborough AthleticAug 22NAT

W2-0MarineAug 18NAT

L1-2South ShieldsAug 15NAT

L1-2ChesterAug 8NAT

L1-2TraffordJul 28FRI

L0-3Accrington STJul 25FRI

D0-0AltrinchamJul 21FRI

L1-2BuryJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Barton Town

1 available

Attackers1

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Chorley

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4