Hajduk Split1NK Varazdin0

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–381%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 18–7On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 18:35 · Europe/Bucharest

First place in the HNL is at stake at Poljud, where the league's top two meet.

Hajduk are the likelier winners, but not by enough to justify a price of 1.65, and Varaždin's away threat makes them awkward visitors. The one price that offers value is Varaždin to win at 5; fewer than three goals and a clean sheet for either side at 1.95 are close to fair, while the first-half lines are too short.

Context

Ajax travel to Split for the Conference League league-phase opener at Poljud on Thursday 15 October, with an 18:45 kick-off. The Dutch club will hold their final training session in Amsterdam instead of at Poljud, so they arrive without a session on the pitch. For Hajduk the European tie is the bigger occasion and falls only three days before the Varaždin game, making rotation and fatigue realistic considerations for the home selection. Hajduk have been unbeaten at home this season, which is the counterweight to any assumption that they will be weakened.
- Hajduk host Ajax in the Conference League league phase at Poljud on Thursday 15 October at 18:45.
- Ajax will hold their final training session in Amsterdam and will not train at Poljud.
- The HNL fixture against Varaždin falls three days after the Ajax match.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Hajduk moved to 19 points by beating Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at Poljud on 10 October, and Varaždin matched them by winning 1-0 at Lokomotiva a day later. That leaves the clubs level at the top and turns Sunday's meeting at Poljud into a direct contest for first place rather than a routine round. Both sides have reason to field close to their strongest available teams, so the fixture carries more weight than an ordinary league game. Dinamo and Rijeka still hold games in hand, which means the lead on offer may be short-lived.
- Hajduk beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at Poljud on 10 October 2026 and moved to 19 points.
- Varaždin won 1-0 at Lokomotiva Zagreb on 11 October 2026 and stayed level with Hajduk at the top.
- The next HNL round pits Hajduk against Varaždin at Poljud, with first place at stake.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Šafarić's side won 1-0 at Lokomotiva Zagreb on 11 October, his first win at the Maksimir Stadium since taking charge of Varaždin. The result kept the club level with Hajduk at the top and extended a run that has Varaždin arriving at Poljud in strong form. Šafarić has kept the team competitive after summer departures, and the earlier 2-1 win over Hajduk gives him a recent template for beating the same opponent. Repeating it away at Poljud against a Hajduk side that has just won the derby is a different task.
- Varaždin won 1-0 at Lokomotiva Zagreb on 11 October 2026.
- It was Nikola Šafarić's first win at the Maksimir Stadium as Varaždin coach.
- The result kept Varaždin level with Hajduk at the top of the HNL.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Silić kept a fifth clean sheet of the HNL season in the 1-0 win at Lokomotiva on 11 October, having come into the side after Oliver Zelenika's departure. Varaždin concede few goals, and a settled goalkeeper is part of why they sit level with Hajduk at the top. That form is a plausible reason the visitors will be difficult to open up at Poljud. The caveat is that Varaždin have not yet taken these clean sheets or points away to the league's leading side.
- Josip Silić kept his fifth clean sheet of the HNL season in Varaždin's 1-0 win at Lokomotiva on 11 October 2026.
- Silić has taken the starting role after Oliver Zelenika's departure.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's unbeaten home record and stronger scoring output make them the most likely winner at Poljud.
- Hajduk home split: 8 matches, 6W 2D 0L, 0.625 goals conceded per game
- HNL home record 4W 1D 0L with 11 scored and 3 conceded
- Hajduk average 2.27 goals per game overall
- Varaždin away split: 3W 1D 2L, 1.33 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHajduk SplitEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals, so a level half-time is the single most likely outcome.
- Hajduk first-half goals 0.87, Varaždin 0.75
- Varaždin first-half conceded 0.17 per game
- Hajduk first-half conceded 0.4 per game
- August meeting was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's strong second-half scoring at home makes them the likeliest side to win the closing period.
- Hajduk second-half goals 1.4 per game
- Hajduk second-half conceded 0.6 per game
- Varaždin second-half conceded 0.75 per game
- Hajduk home second-half goals 1.625 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHajduk SplitEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's unbeaten home record and stronger scoring output make them the most likely winner at Poljud. Two well-matched sides at the top with tight defences make a share of the points plausible.
- Hajduk home split: 8 matches, 6W 2D 0L, 0.625 goals conceded per game
- HNL home record 4W 1D 0L with 11 scored and 3 conceded
- Last five H2H meetings include two 1-1 draws
- Hajduk home: 2 draws in 8; Varaždin away: 1 draw in 6
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHajduk Split or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk hold the better first-half scoring and defensive numbers, so they are favourites to lead at the break. Both teams score few first-half goals, so a level half-time is the single most likely outcome.
- Hajduk first-half goals 0.87 per game
- Varaždin first-half goals against 0.17 per game
- Hajduk first-half goals 0.87, Varaždin 0.75
- Varaždin first-half conceded 0.17 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHajduk Split or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Two of the league's better defences point to a controlled, lower-scoring contest.
- Varaždin overall concede 0.92 per game
- Hajduk home concede 0.625 per game
- Three of the last five H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals
- Varaždin conceded one goal in their last six
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both defences are strong enough that one side is likely to be shut out.
- Hajduk home: 5 clean sheets in 8
- Varaždin: 6 clean sheets in 12
- Varaždin conceded once in their last six
- Hajduk home concede 0.625 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's home scoring rate makes two or more goals a reasonable expectation.
- Hajduk home average 2.375 goals per game
- Hajduk scored in all 8 home matches
- Varaždin away concede 1.33 per game
- Hajduk home league total 11 goals in 5 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHajduk Split over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's home defence is strong enough to keep Varaždin below two goals.
- Hajduk home concede 0.625 per game
- Hajduk home clean sheets: 5 in 8
- Varaždin away average 2.0 goals but scored 5 in 6
- Hajduk home opponents average 2.88 shots on target
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNK Varazdin under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Combined first-half scoring still makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Hajduk first-half goals 0.87 per game
- Varaždin first-half goals 0.75 per game
- Hajduk first-half conceded 0.4 per game
- Varaždin first-half conceded 0.17 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams rarely score before half-time, so both scoring in the first half is unlikely.
- Varaždin first-half conceded 0.17 per game
- Hajduk first-half conceded 0.4 per game
- Hajduk first-half goals 0.87 per game
- Varaždin first-half goals 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most goals in these teams' games come after half-time, making two second-half goals likely.
- Hajduk second-half goals 1.4 per game
- Varaždin second-half goals 1.0 per game
- Hajduk home second-half goals 1.625 per game
- Varaždin away second-half conceded 1.17 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals sit below the line on average, pointing to fewer than ten.
- Hajduk corners 5.08, opponents 3.15
- Varaždin corners 4.67, opponents 4.67
- Hajduk home corners 5.0, opponents 4.13
- Combined match corner average around 9
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's matches average close to 29 shots, so fewer is more likely.
- Hajduk shots 14.3, opponents 9.2
- Varaždin shots 14.1, opponents 12.1
- Hajduk home shots 14.3, opponents 10.7
- Combined shot average around 25
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 28.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target sit below ten on average.
- Hajduk on target 5.6, opponents 2.8
- Varaždin on target 3.9, opponents 4.4
- Hajduk home on target 5.25, opponents 2.88
- Combined on-target average around 8.4
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined bookings average above the line, and a first-place decider can add to the count.
- Hajduk yellows 2.23, opponents 2.08
- Varaždin yellows 1.44, opponents 2.44
- Combined card average around 4.1
- Top-of-the-table decider adds tension
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance57%